Federal Election 2025: five key issues facing South Australia | Paul Starick

South Australia is on track to play a crucial role on election night even though it is no longer a battleground state, Paul Starick writes.

Two seats in South Australia, Boothby and Sturt, might just determine who holds power after the May 3 poll.

If the result is tight, crossbencher Rebekha Sharkie might hold the key to who forms a minority government.

Unfortunately, SA is no longer the crucial electoral battleground it once was, when the population was proportionally higher and five marginal seats could swing a federal election.

Here are some of the key things voters should watch in SA.

Medicare frontline

In his opening pitch on Friday morning, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese staked Medicare at the heart of his campaign.

The key generals in this battle, Health Minister Mark Butler and his Liberal shadow Anne Ruston, are both from SA.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese being congratulated by Health Minister Mark Butler after making a major speech in February about Medicare. Picture: NewsWire/ Scott Gelston

Mr Butler spent Friday morning trumpeting mental health support for kids in the southwestern Adelaide marginal seat of Boothby, while Senator Ruston vowed a Dutton Coalition government would spend $400m to “deliver a world-leading focus on youth mental health”.

A former ALP national and state president, Mr Butler is emerging as a federal leadership contender.

His credentials would be enhanced if Labor wins re-election with a Medicare-centric campaign, as would Senator Ruston’s if the Coalition neutralises a traditional ALP strength.

Coalition health spokeswoman Anne Ruston at an Advertiser Bush Summit. Picture: Ben Clark

The Peter Malinauskas X factor

Labor’s kryptonite for the Liberals in SA is Premier Peter Malinauskas, not Mr Albanese. Boothby MP Louise Miller-Frost is using the Premier – not Albo – on her campaign flyers.

When Mr Albanese was under pressure from FIVEaa’s Will Goodings over housing during an interview on Thursday, he rushed to divert the conversation to Mr Malinauskas’s “recent announcements”.

The state Liberals are plumbing historic depths, in terms of seat numbers, and federal Labor tacitly recognises Mr Malinauskas has more charisma and vote-pulling power than Mr Albanese.

Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese and Premier Peter Malinauskas in February, at The Advertiser’s Building a Bigger, Better SA Forum. Picture: NewsWire / Brenton Edwards

Nicolle Flint’s Boothby battleground comeback effort

Held by Labor with a 3.3 per cent margin, this electorate is the tipping point on the pendulum for the Coalition to form government.

Effectively, it is a battle between incumbents – Ms Miller-Frost won the seat in 2022 after her challenger, Liberal Nicolle Flint, retired from politics after holding Boothby since 2016.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton with Liberal Boothby candidate Nicolle Flint. Picture: Matt Turner.

Labor had thrown the kitchen sink at capturing Boothby for some years and, in a cost-of-living crisis, now will have to do the same to retain the seat.

Keeping trucks off Cross Rd has already emerged as an election-defining issue.

Federal Liberal Member for Sturt James Stevens. Picture: NCA NewsWire / David Mariuz

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese with Boothby MP Louise Miller-Frost. Picture: Facebook

Labor’s sensitivity was demonstrated by the ham-fisted attempts by Transport Minister Catherine King and her office to convince journalists that $525m for an Adelaide freight bypass had been included in Tuesday’s federal budget.

This “investment” was incorrectly touted by both Ms King and Ms Miller-Frost on Wednesday morning, when journalists were being falsely accused of missing the project in the budget papers.

Sturt electorate hotspot

One of the Coalition’s most vulnerable seats, James Stevens holds the eastern Adelaide electorate of Sturt with a slim 0.5 per cent margin.

Sturt was the stronghold of Christopher Pyne, who was renowned as an indefatigable ground campaigner. Mr Stevens is considered likely to hang on but Labor retains hope.

The closeness of the race between the Liberal and Labor parties means the prospect of Sturt falling to an independent is remote, given the candidate would have to finish second to scoop up preferences to secure an unlikely victory.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Premier Peter Malinauskas on a Collins class submarine at the Osborne Naval Shipyard. Picture: NCA NewsWire / David Mariuz

SA at heart of Australia’s AUKUS situation

SA is the epicentre of the nation’s defence industry, particularly given the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine construction planned for Osborne Naval Shipyard.

Rightly, the major parties will be under immense pressure to increase defence spending, because of global tensions, with SA industry and jobs looming as a major beneficiary.

Originally published as Federal Election 2025: five key issues facing South Australia | Paul Starick