Revealed: The electorates that will decide Australia’s next Prime Minster

These key seats and their undecided voters have the most power to decide Australia’s fate when the nation heads to the polls. WATCH THE VIDEO

Undecided voters in the outer suburbs of Melbourne, Sydney and coastal NSW hold the most power to send either Anthony Albanese or Peter Dutton to the Lodge this election.

With Western Australia firming as a Labor-friendly state and Queensland seemingly locked in as a stronghold for the Coalition, about 11 seats in the nation’s two biggest states are likely where the 2025 result will be decided.

Both the Prime Minister and Opposition leader are expected to spend much of the campaign in Victoria and NSW, but there are also crucial seats up for grabs in northern Tasmania, Adelaide, Perth, Brisbane, Cairns and even Darwin.

Redbridge pollster Kos Samaras said the “mortgage belt” electorates falling in the outer suburbs of metropolitan areas and regional Australia would be the key battleground in this campaign.

“NSW and Victoria are the two swing states now, historically it was always Queensland and everyone waited for Queensland,” he said.

■ Everything you need to know about 2025 election

NSW and Victoria are expected to be the key swing states this election.

“(Labor) are in trouble in both states, there are 11 seats too close to all in NSW and six in Victoria.”

Mr Samaras said he believed the leader’s pre-campaign visits to the Northern Territory, Queensland and Western Australia was a case of “ticking boxes” before they hone in on Victoria and NSW.

“We will see both leaders spend most of their time in the two biggest states,” he said.

“We shouldn’t expect too much to change in Queensland (and) I don’t see anything changing in WA all that much.”

The Liberals will be targeting “teal” independent Kate Chaney in the Perth seat of Curtin, and are also hoping to unseat Labor MP Sam Lim who holds Tangney in the city’s outer suburbs.

Mr Samaras predicted WA’s newest electorate, Bullwinkel, to go into Coalition hands despite being notionally Labor but with both the Nationals and the Liberals vying for it — it was too close to call which of the coalition partners would take the seat.

On the NSW south coast Labor holds the seat of Gilmore on a margin of only 0.17 per cent, putting the electorate high on the Liberals’ target list.

The Coalition also has high hopes of ousting Albanese Government MPs from central coast seats like Dobell and Robertson, as well as Patterson further north.

Labor will also have a fight to hold the Sydney seat of Bennelong, which he won in 2022 on a margin of just 0.04 per cent, an advantage he has notionally lost in a redistribution that made the seat more Liberal leaning.

The Coalition is also on the hunt in Werriwa and Paramatta in Sydney’s west.

Another seat to watch is Fowler in Sydney’s southwest where Labor is optimistic about its chances with candidate Tu Le against independent Dai Le.

Labor lost the seat at the 2022 election after parachuting former NSW Premier Kristina Keneally into the seat.

In Queensland the LNP is vying to regain the inner city seats of Ryan and Brisbane after losing both to the Greens in 2022.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is fighting to keep key Labor seats and take others. Picture: AAP

In the same state, Labor is hopeful their candidate, former basketballer Matt Smith, could take Leichhardt after long-time Coalition MP Warren Entsch announced his retirement.

On the Gold Coast in the safe Liberal seat of McPherson where former home affairs minister Karen Andrews is retiring, an independent candidate has begun garnering attention.

The Melbourne seat of Goldstein, held on a 1.8 per cent margin by independent MP Zoe Daniel, and Chisholm, on a redistributed margin of 3.3 per cent for Labor, are being strongly targeted by the Liberals.

In the city’s outer suburbs Labor is at risk of losing McEwen, while an independent challenger in the regional Victorian seat of Wannon has made the safe Liberal seat one to watch.

In Adelaide, Labor is looking to pick up the seat of Sturt, held by the Liberals on a 0.45 per cent margin, as well as defend the electorate of Boothby, which the ALP just gained in 2022.

Peter Dutton has a battle on his hands. Picture: Dylan Coker

The Darwin seat of Solomons, long-held by Labor is an outside chance for the Country Liberal Party after a large swing swept the party into territory government last year.

In Tasmania the retirement of three-term Labor MP Brian Mitchell has made Lyons vulnerable for Labor, though Mr Albanese is hopeful his candidates in the marginal seats of Bass and Braddon are a chance to pick up.

Both Mr Dutton and Mr Albanese had spent the months before the election date was announced running their own pre-election roadshows, but Mr Samaras said Australians would only now tune into their campaigns.

“I don’t think the election was paying much attention,” he said.

“Both sides haven’t made a significant impact in moving the needle.”

Originally published as Revealed: The electorates that will decide Australia’s next Prime Minster