The MediaReach poll published in today’s NT News shows Territory Alliance has arrived as a serious player in the political landscape. And Labor’s majority is in real doubt; the poll predicting that even if all the cards fall its way, it could still come up short of the 13 seats it needs to govern in its own right.

For the CLP, the news looks even worse.

First, a few caveats;

Yes, polls can be unreliable, as many pundits discovered at the last year’s federal election.

Yes, polling can be even more fraught in the Northern Territory, particularly outside the major centres.

Yes, the poll was commissioned by Territory Alliance and the pollster once worked for the party’s leader.

But this was no push poll. This was an independent survey conducted by the same company that accurately predicted the 2016 election result, right down to then-Chief Minister Adam Giles losing his own seat.

MediaReach also got the result right in Solomon in 2016 and 2019. It surveyed about 200 voters in each of 21 seats. And the biggest insight from this poll is that voters in the Northern Territory are losing faith with the major parties.

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This shouldn’t come as a huge surprise to close observers of Australian politics. It’s a trend that’s been developing for decades.

Labor’s 33.4 per cent primary vote at the 2019 federal election was its lowest since 1934 while the coalition’s 41.4 per cent was well short of the 47.3 per cent achieved when John Howard won office in 1996.

Today’s voter is less likely to be welded on to a major political party than they were two decades ago. That’s seen the vote scatter to One Nation, The Greens, Clive Palmer and a swag of independents.

The MediaReach poll suggests the march away from the major parties could be even more pronounced in the Territory.

Four years of CLP chaos followed by four more of ALP mediocrity has only increased the “pox on both your houses” mentality that has long simmered among cynical NT voters. What’s unique about 2020 is that there is a new party ready and waiting to capture the malcontents.

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For Labor, these numbers will wake them from any false sense of security the coronavirus might have inspired. It’s almost certain Labor will have its own polling that says something similar. That might explain why even senior ministers with healthy margins are retreating to their electorates for mobile offices and pizza in the park.

They will be desperate to convince the undecideds to stay the course.

But there’s little doubt Labor faces a massive battle to cling to power.

The MediaReach poll gives the ALP 12 seats under a best-case scenario. But three of the seats assumed as likely Labor wins are in the bush and couldn’t be polled. And at least two of these – Arnhem and Arafura – are not certain to fall Labor’s way.

Karama could also be interesting if former Labor leader-turned Territory Alliance adviser Delia Lawrie hits the campaign trail hard in support of TA candidate Caleb Cardno.

On the flip side, Labor won’t be conceding Mulka or Daly, especially without a breakdown of where the respondents in those seats came from.

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For the CLP, it appears voters still haven’t forgiven them for the mess they left when last in office. The scandal engulfing CLP Senator Sam McMahon this week won’t have helped.

Territory Alliance will feel buoyed by these numbers. But they will also see the blowtorch turned up on this fledgling entity. There will be more scrutiny over what Territory Alliance stands for and how a party whose critics say tries to be all things to all people would function if it gained power.

Preferences will be crucial. Mills says Territory Alliance will examine them on a seat-by-seat basis. The CLP might still be tempted to do a deal with Labor in a bid to kill off Territory Alliance and secure Opposition. But that’s a move that guarantees Labor – its sworn enemy – power, and risks alienating its dwindling base. Many CLP stalwarts are still smarting over the decision to put Labor second at the Johnston by-election.

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The 2020 election is now officially a three-horse race. Strap in for the ride, it’s going to be wild.