For the past two decades this growing satellite city has swung — often wildly — with the NT’s political mood.

The seats of Brennan and Drysdale swung to Labor in the 2005 landslide, back to the CLP when Labor just hung on in 2008, then back to Labor in the massacre of 2016. These voters have also decided the federal seat of Solomon.

There’s a reason Palmerston has a brand new, state-of-the-art hospital and it’s not because of need.

Less than three months out from the Territory election, Palmerston will be crucial in deciding the result.

NEW OFFER: Get amazing Sennheiser earbuds (RRP: $499) with NT News subscription deal

With 16 seats, Labor needs only lose four and its majority is gone.

Katherine and Braitling will almost certainly fall and one of Barkly and Port Darwin will also likely go.

Lose one or both of Brennan and Drysdale and the ALP could be cooked.

Labor will have the advantage of incumbency in these seats.

In Territory politics, candidates have often benefitted from a sophomore surge if they’ve spent the past four years working hard on the ground.

Our small electorates mean politicians can meet all of their constituents at least once during a term of government, and personal appeal can often trump party politics.

Michael Gunner, for example, won Fannie Bay by just 76 votes in 2008, keeping Labor in power in the process.

MORE FROM MATT CUNNINGHAM

Labor’s election hopes made brighter by opposition division

We can’t delay long overdue public service cuts any longer

NT Govt’s refusal to open its books goes against its own promise

Gunner Government’snew ‘how can we help you?’ attitude needs to be a permanent change

Unprecedented crisis could also bring opportunity to a struggling Northern Territory

In 2012, despite a Territory-wide swing to the CLP, he increased this margin to 539 votes with a 5.7 per cent swing in his favour.

Labor is banking on a similar performance from Tony “thumbs-up” Sievers in Brennan.

Sievers is a hard bloke not to like and — without the burden of a cabinet position — he’s been able to attend the opening of every envelope in his electorate since the election.

But his personal popularity might struggle to overcome the other issues on the minds of Palmerston voters.

They might have a shiny new hospital and police station, but it’s the bricks and mortar of their own homes that will be of most concern.

As the NT’s economy boomed at the beginning of the 2010s, hard working Territorians scrimped and saved in a desperate bid to get a foot in the rapidly rising Top End property market.

VIDEO OF THE DAY

Many of these new homeowners flocked to Palmerston where a family home was still relatively affordable.

This looked a good investment as house prices rose 36 per cent in the five years to March 2014.

But then the rot started to set in.

It was already being felt when voters went to the polls in 2016.

Since then it’s become far worse.

In the five years to March 2019 house prices had fallen 19 per cent and unit prices 40 per cent.

For those who bought anywhere near the peak of the market this has had a devastating consequence.

MORE FROM MATT CUNNINGHAM

Now, this is a ‘real’ crisis and it’s time the whinging stopped

Gunner a real revelation in leading NT coronavirus response

If you don’t pay for news, you’ll be left with the ABC

Royal Commission left the Gunner Government an impossible mission

Palmerston Regional Hospital should never have been built

They now find themselves in negative equity.

A situation where their home is worth less — often by hundreds of thousands of dollars — than the amount of their mortgage.

It’s difficult to get a clear picture of how many people are in this situation.

In response to a written question last year from the CLP’s Gary Higgins, Treasurer Nicole Manison revealed 60 per cent of Australia’s negative equity cases are in Western Australia and the Northern Territory.

There was no breakdown, however, between jurisdictions or regions.

Anecdotally there have been reports that about 30 per cent of Palmerston properties are “underwater”.

It’s been a frustrating battle for the people in this situation.

Their savings have effective been swallowed up by the hefty losses on their property.

They’re unable to move in search of a better paid job as they can’t afford to take a loss on the sale of their home.

MORE FROM MATT CUNNINGHAM

Youth justice may well be the Gunner Government’s undoing

The Commonweatlh doesn’t seem to see the need for a strong and prosperous NT

Our new Police Commissioner has a job that has never been more important

Government’s reliance on spin doctors shows contempt for its constituents

The big danger for Labor is that the frustration these people are feeling will be taken out at the ballot box.

And Labor has little margin here for error.

Sievers’ margin in Brennan is just 2.8 per cent, while Eva Lawler has a 5.2 per cent buffer in Drysdale.

If the swing is on in Palmerston then both these seats could fall.

That will depend, of course, on whether the CLP and Territory Alliance can play nice.