Federal election 2022: ANU study suggests most women candidates are in unwinnable seats

A study released by the Australian National University suggests most women candidates for the major parties are running in marginal or ‘unwinnable’ seats.

During this election campaign the Labor Party and the Coalition have gone to extraordinary efforts to differentiate themselves to Australians.

Yet a study from a top Australian university suggests the two major parties have one troubling thing in common.

A study from the Australian National University’s Global Institute for Women’s Leadership (GIWL) has found most female candidates running for the two major parties are based in marginal or “unwinnable” seats.

The study, co-authored by GIWL director Professor Michelle Ryan, has found only 20 per cent of female Coalition candidates and just 24 per cent of Labor women candidates are running in winnable seats.

In comparison 46 per cent of male Coalition candidates and 33 per cent of male Labor candidates are running in winnable safe seats.

Professor Ryan described this as a “big loss for our democracy and for Australia”.

Professor Michelle Ryan is dismayed with the study’s results.

“We know quotas work to get more women into politics,” she said.

“But this analysis shows us why it’s not just about how many women are preselected as candidates, but how many are put into positions where they genuinely can win.”

Professor Ryan said that was part of the “glass cliff” phenomenon, in which women were appointed to leadership positions in times of crisis or when their position was precarious.

“The 2022 federal election is a classic glass cliff moment,” she said.

“While political parties are publicising their efforts to increase the number of women candidates they put forward, we need to look at whether these candidates are simply stepping into seats that males aren’t interested in, or if they will genuinely increase the diversity of our parliament.

“On this analysis, it would seem that, sadly, diversity isn’t the driving motivation.”

Professor Ryan said she keep a close eye on election results this year.

“Almost two decades of research into the glass cliff tells us that women will not fare as well as their male counterparts at the ballot box – especially Coalition candidates,” she said.

“This will not be because women can’t do politics, but rather because they are preselected in seats that are more risky and more precarious.”

Professor Ryan told The Canberra Star while GIWL are yet to research this, early data suggests race and ethnic background could be a factor.

“A first look at the data suggests maybe the minority of women running in those safe seats are overwhelmingly white,” she said.

“When we look at the women who are in the more marginal or unwinnable seats they are less white.

“We haven’t done a full analysis there but it’s something we’re working on.”

Originally published as Federal election 2022: ANU study suggests most women candidates are in unwinnable seats