Darwin Cup Day 2019 expert selections for the biggest day in Territory racing
NT News racing expert Tom Rush has analysed every race on Darwin Cup day. See which horses you can make money on.
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1 - 12:35PM Harvey Norman Handicap (1100 METRES)
Looks a bit of speed here. LOVE CLUB will look to find the front but at what cost?
Should he cross easy enough then it’s a yes from me but doing too much work early will see him vulnerable late.
DELTA D’OR found the line well last start, saves ground the fence here and can figure at good odds. Barrier 1 is worth several lengths around this course. MORAL OUTRAGE will pour on the pressure and roll the dice from out wide. All duck or no dinner with him.
PATRIOT DAY and HATTAN MAN are racing well and can win without surprising. A very even affair to open the first race on Cup Day. If you can land the trifecta here, it’s away you go.
SELECTIONS 4, 1, 5, 8
2 - 1:10PM Seppelt Montgomerie Lightning Plate (1000 METRES)
The Karen Byrnes-trained STREET LIFE seemed to have his chance behind BROOKLYN last start when narrowly beaten in fourth placing. Drawn to be right on the back of the speed he is worth another chance and goes in as the top selection. BROOKLYN is pretty honest around these parts but will he back up from the Palmerston? Will we see the best of I’M TOO HOT? He is capable of finding the front and winning should he do everything right but he is becoming costly to punters. MOOT is a very honest horse and he ran a good race in the Palmerston Sprint on Saturday, beaten only 6.9 lengths behind the champ Captain Punch. He will be hard to beat in this.
SELECTIONS 4, 8, 5, 1
3 - 1:50PM Schweppes Handicap (1200 METRES)
DIVINE RED comes out of a very good form race and looks the one to beat. Likely to have to do the work outside KRONOS but can tough it out. KRONOS was caught three wide in a similar race last start but will rail up and hold the front today. If DIVINE RED and LOOKING FOR YOU leave him alone mid race he can pinch this.
EASTWOOD steps up to a slightly tougher event but was very impressive on his debut win at Fannie Bay for trainer Tayarn Halter. He is the closer you want to be on.
LOOKING FOR YOU is backing up from Wednesday when he was run down in the shadows of the post by Trystoff. Won’t get the favours today but he will run a big race.
SELECTIONS 1, 7, 2, 5
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4 - 2:25PM Mantra TROBIS Handicap (1100 METRES)
ROCKATOMIC walked in on resumption for Garry Lefoe Jnr winning by over five lengths on Wednesday. I’m backing him to get across from the horrible barrier and win again. BON AIRE was well fancied last start and although not beaten far was slightly disappointing. Last chance for him. He’s drawn the golden alley in barrier 1. CAPTAIN CALIFORNIA was well beaten by Grammar Boy but this looks a more suitable assignment. PUZZLED PRINCESS may back up from Saturday where she ran second and she will be in the thick of the action early. VUNIVALU ran second to the flying Another Bit on Saturday and improved out of sight. If he backs up, watch for him at odds.
SELECTIONS 3, 1, 11, 4
5 - 3:05PM Magic Millions Handicap (1300 METRES)
Big watch to see if GRAMMAR BOY gets a start (2nd emergency). The bubble burst last start when he couldn’t get into the race early from a wide draw. Gets gate 1 in this. QUANTUM DOT and BAKSLAP have accepted and if they back up from Saturday’s run in the Palmerston Sprint they are the obvious class runners.
LIVE FAST just missed a start in the Palmerston Sprint and can pull out a big run on occasions. Keep safe. The Angela Forster-trained pair FEDERAL COURT and TYCOON DANCER are other hopes in what will be a very competitive betting affair. A great race to take a quinella, trifecta and first four where you could land a big result and help with the mortgage.
SELECTIONS 14, 1, 3, 8
WEATHER forecast for the Darwin Cup
6 - 3:40PM Ladbrokes Handicap (1300 METRES)
Predicting a big day for the Lefoe stable. Paul Shiers gave MCINTYRE a great steer last start. Can repeat the dose from the good gate. The Philip Cole-trained RECORDING TO WIN looked good breaking her maiden on Wednesday with a dominant win. It’s a step up here but she looks a progressive type.
New stablemate HURRY HOME HARRY has been racing well and must be respected. WINDSOR CUP and JAYEFFKAY are other chances in a tough start to the quaddie. TRYSTOFF was impressive on Wednesday but won’t get all the favours this time from a wide gate. THE AUDITOR is another to consider each-way.
SELECTIONS 2, 7, 12, 4
7 - 4:15PM Designer Kitchens Handicap (1600 METRES)
The Gary Clarke-trained DOWNHEARTED was surprisingly backed into favourite in the Metric Mile. THE WILD SIDE has been a good money spinner for the Philip Cole stable with his 6 wins and 11 placings from 25 starts at the track. JAVA looked like he enjoyed stepping up to the mile at this stage of his career when running third to leading Cup contenders Ihtsahymn and Lotion last start. Despite the 62.5kg he looks in great condition and the in-form Brendon Davis jumps on. Terry Treichel will have to deliver the special sauce again on JUNIOR BURGER who is racing well but has drawn a wide barrier.
SELECTIONS 3, 1, 2, 6
SHIERS aiming to win first Darwin Cup
8 - 4:55PM Arafura Line Marking Handicap (1900 METRES)
GRAND TETON drops back to his right grade here after a solid run in the Metric Mile. Should be a nice hitout before his defence of his Katherine Cup in a fortnight.
BORLUNG has turned into a different horse since being ridden stone cold. The step up to 1900m should suit. If he’s 10 lengths off them 600m out don’t panic because he can make up ground very quickly. The greys SIR GARFIELD and GENERAL FACTOR finished alongside each other in the Ladbrokes NT Derby. Both look nice stayers in the making. Looking forward to what level they can get to next Carnival. Both will run well today.
SELECTIONS 1, 6, 8, 4
9 - 5:35PM Great Northern Darwin Cup (2000 METRES)
The last race of the Carnival is here … the Cup. It is hard
to go past the short-priced favourite LIEDER. His arrogant win in the Buntine Handicap over 1900m is the race we all refer to and you simply can’t ignore the way he won. Michael Hickmott’s stablemate ADATTO and LOTION did go hard early that day, which set the race up for LIEDER but he should get a solidly run race again. Group 1 winner IHTSAHYMN travelled well in the Metric Mile and finished with gusto to run down LOTION in the last 50m. The big grey looks the main danger to LIEDER and these two dominate betting. The Lloyd Kennewell-trained POET’S LANDING has done nothing wrong in the Top End as he strives for the elusive $100,000 Ladbrokes Triple Crown bonus. But it’s a tough ask to take on these powerful seasoned stayers when so close at the weights. It will take a herculean performance to beat LIEDER and IHTSAHYMN. ASH GREY and LOTION look the likely leaders and both can give some real cheek on speed. XEBEC is the unknown quantity. His turf form is good enough and was around the mark in his only run in the Top End when midfield in the Chief Minister’s Cup. No matter which way you cut the cookie when analysing the Cup, it’s hard to see LIEDER or IHYTSAHYM not winning with the former clearly the one to beat. He won the Alice Springs Cup by 10 lengths in May and he’s been set for this race for a long time.
SELECTIONS 2, 1, 4, 8
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