Coronavirus Victoria: Low testing rates likely hiding state’s true case numbers

Victoria recorded its lowest case increase in a month, but the Chief Health Officer has warned there is something masking the real infection rates.

Victoria has recorded its lowest increase in COVID-19 cases in more than a month, but residents have been warned there are likely more infections than what is being detected.

Chief Health Officer, Professor Brett Sutton, said while today’s 70 new cases were promising, the daily figures revealed a major problem with the state’s testing rates.

There were just 10,153 coronavirus tests conducted across Victoria in the past 24 hours, making it the lowest testing rate the state has seen since June 23.

Over the past few days there has been a drastic decline in the number of people getting tested, with Prof Sutton warning cases could be going undetected within the community.

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Victorian Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton warned the state’s low testing rates could mean coronavirus cases are going undetected. Picture: David Geraghty/NCA NewsWire

“These are low numbers. It can cause complacency for people who think they don’t need to test but testing is the pathway to drive numbers down,” he said during Tuesday’s press conference.

“If we don’t know that there are cases in the community, if we can’t identify people and they’re not aware themselves, then they’re going to put their close family and other close contact at risk.

“Obviously, we’re reducing the number of close contact that people have in the workplace, out in the community, but everyone still has close contact and if you’re a positive case and you’re not being tested and you’re not isolating because of that positive test coming back to you, this virus will continue to spread.”

Prof Sutton said 10,000 people getting tested is “not enough” to continue to suppress the virus and move towards opening up the state.

“I know there’s more respiratory illness out there,” he said.

Any Victorians with even mild COVID-19 symptoms – a runny nose, sore throat, cough, shortness of breath, fever, headache, fatigue, change in smell and taste – are being urged to go get tested.

If Victoria has any hope of pushing its daily cases into single digits then all chains of transmission need to be detected within the community, Prof Sutton said.

“If we go to easing, if we’re not aware of hidden cases because people have not come forward for testing, they will persist and then accelerate,” he said.

“As we ease restrictions, as we increase allowances for people to interact with others, if there are mystery chains of transmission, just like mystery cases, they will accelerate and potentially explode.

“And if we only detect them when they’re large outbreaks, it means there’s more community transmission out there and even though we can identify and get on top of outbreaks, it does become really challenging if there’s widespread community transmission.”

Prof Sutton said it was a “challenge” to keep testing rates high, with less people turning out for testing because they feel safer as the daily care numbers drop.

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Victorians have been urged to continue to get tested, even if they only have mild symptoms. Picture: Asanka Ratnayake/Getty Images

“There is always that paradox – as numbers go down, as people feel safer, as people feel like there’s not much transmission out there, even though it’s still there, they may not be stepping up for testing,” he said.

“So I have to emphasise that anyone with compatible symptoms needs to come forward for testing. It is a concern if testing numbers were to continue to drop, because it’s one of our really significant tools in managing this.”

Victoria recorded 70 new COVID-19 cases and five deaths on Tuesday.

Premier Daniel Andrews said it was “critically important” for people to continue to get tested even though infections are decreasing.

He urged people with symptoms to visit one of the many test sites around the state, adding that if someone can’t travel to get tested health officials would come to them.

“That’s how critically important it is that we have the most complete picture of how this virus is presenting across the Victorian community,” Mr Andrews said.

“Thank you to each of those Victorians who have come forward and, of course, by extension, that massive team of people out there taking swabs, processing tests in labs. They’re doing an amazing job.”