If Islamic State downed Russian plane, it will be a ‘game changer’

IT is a “nightmare scenario” that is looking increasingly likely — Islamic State’s ability to plant bombs on planes.

In this Russian Emergency Situations Ministry photo, made available on Monday, Nov. 2, 2015 Egyptian soldiers collect personal belongings of plane crash victims at the crash site of a passenger plane bound for St. Petersburg in Russia that crashed in Hassana, Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, on Monday, Nov. 2, 2015. A Russian cargo plane on Monday brought the first bodies of Russian victims home to St. Petersburg, from Egypt. (Russian Ministry for Emergency Situations photo via AP)

IT could herald a “nightmare scenario” for the world and change air travel forever.

As evidence mounts that Islamic State brought down a Russian passenger plane over Egypt by planting a bomb on board, the reality of what this means is beginning to hit home.

The idea of IS being responsible for Saturday’s air disaster, which killed 224 people, was initially greeted with scepticism, but US intelligence officials have now admitted it is increasingly likely.

“Dozens of bodies were badly burnt and if there was a fire this suggests it was an explosion,” Deakin University’s terrorism expert Professor Greg Barton told news.com.au. This would almost certainly point to it being the work of Islamic State.

“If that is what it is, then that changes everything.”

Ever since 2014, when Islamic State called on supporters to kill disbelievers “in any way possible”, the terror group has been associated with low-tech, organic “lone wolf” attacks. Chilling examples of this include the beheading of foreign hostages and the shooting of NSW police worker Curtis Cheng by a radicalised 15-year-old schoolboy in Sydney’s west.

“They are low scale, they don’t kill hundreds, they kills handfuls,” Prof Barton said, “but bringing down an airline is a whole different thing”.

Islamic State was not previously thought to have the capability to deliver large scale attacks, unlike al Qaeda, which was responsible for the September 11 attacks and the Bali bombings.

If Islamic State is found to responsible for the incident, Prof Barton said you would have to assume that it had somehow managed to get its hands on al Qaeda’s superior bomb making techniques.

“If they are now in a position to smuggle explosives onto aircraft, the same as al Qaeda ... if this technology has been transferred it could create the perfect storm,” he said.

Egyptian military approach a plane's tail at the wreckage of a passenger jet bound for St. Petersburg in Russia that crashed in Hassana, Egypt, on Sunday, November 1, 2015. Picture: Maxim Grigoriev/Russian Ministry for Emergency Situations via AP

Islamic State has already shown itself to be a slick media operator, and Prof Barton said if the same level of professionalism was applied to making a bomb, advancing technology and innovating, this would be a potential “game changer”.

The “mega terror group” already control their own state, including the resources and lives of millions in cities such as Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa in Syria.

“They are already the most formidable terror threat we have ever seen, when you add al Qaeda’s ability for large scale attacks such as taking a plane down, you have a nightmare scenario,” Prof Barton said.

“Al Qaeda never controlled a state, or an economy of billions of dollars.

“Islamic State controls cities with millions of citizens including engineers and scientists.”

The development would also have repercussions for air travel.

“If Islamic State is now in this space, it will cause a major shake-up of security at airlines and air routes,” he said. “You have to work on the assumption they will want to do it again.”

In the short term Prof Barton thought it was likely that flights would be directed away from certain areas and there would also be a question mark over airports with poor security.

Tourists have been left stranded after Britain suspended flights from the Red Sea resort town of Sharm el-Sheikh until it could be established whether it was a bomb that brought the plane down.

Passengers wait to depart from Sharm el-Sheikh airport hours after the crash. Picture: AP

Flights are already unable to fly over Iraq and Syria in case there is a mechanical problem that forces a plane to land in the war-torn countries. Airlines also avoid parts of East Africa and east Ukraine.

“The problem is there are not many safe routes between Australia and the southern hemisphere,” Prof Barton said.

In the medium and long term, authorities will have to reconsider how it screens for non-metallic devices.

Prof Barton said that while an attempt by “underwear bomber” Umar Farouk Addulmutallab to detonate plastic explosives during a flight in 2009 to the US had failed, it showed that al Qaeda had developed a bomb that could blow a hole in a plane and not be picked up by airport metal detectors.

“(Officials) had a big rethink when they found out al Qaeda was trying to use liquid based explosives (leading to restrictions on liquids on planes) ... now they have to figure what device (Islamic State) used and how to screen for it.

“I think we can count on longer delays, bigger queues and more security at airports.”