Expert weighs in on what brought down China Eastern flight MU5735

In two minutes, China Eastern flight MU5735 plunged 20,000ft. A nosedive that resulted in the death of 132 people. Now, one expert has a chilling theory.

In the hours following China Eastern’s horrific passenger jet crash, which has left 132 people dead, the airline abruptly moved to ground all of its Boeing 737-800s in a dramatic response.

Horrifying CCTV footage emerged on social media within hours of the deadly crash, reportedly showing the flight MU5735 nosediving vertically from 30,000 feet towards the ground.

FlightRadar tracking data showed the aircraft cruising at 29,100ft at 2.20pm. Around two minutes later it had plummeted to just over 9,000ft and 20 seconds after that it had fallen to just 3,225ft. The data indicates a vertical descent at a terrifying 560 km/h.

But while all eyes shifted to Boeing and the safety of the specific aircraft, Australian aviation expert Neil Hansford says the crash — which is the first for the Chinese carrier in 30 years — was unlikely to be caused by a technical issue.

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The aircraft took a nosedive from almost 30,000 feet.

“Even with total loss of power, no aircraft plummets to the ground from 20,000 feet in two minutes with an event at 8,000 feet,” Mr Hansford explained to news.com.au.

“I think aircraft technical failure can be ruled out and it will be an external event … I would get on a Boeing 737-800 in an instant with an Australian carrier, so my suggestion would be it won’t be Boeing or aircraft technical related.”

While it is not yet clear what forced the sudden dip in altitude, Mr Hansford believes there are four likely scenarios that led to the catastrophe.

The crash caused a fire on the mountains, and the jet involved in the accident was a Boeing 737 aircraft. Picture Twitter

China Eastern flight MU5735 had taken off from Kunming and was en route to Guangzhou. Picture Twitter

“It is very unlikely the pilot passed out as the non-flying pilot would have been able to very safely take over the flying and land the aircraft,” he explained.

“Likely scenarios include pilot suicide, aircraft mid-air collision with military aircraft (they don’t have transponders like civil aircraft), [flight MU5735] was struck by a missile or an on-board explosion.”

“My tipping is a human-induced event or bought down by rogue missile. Debris looks like MH117 over Ukraine, and the Chinese are providing too much information this time which is uncharacteristic.”

Speaking to The Sun Online, UKaviation expert Sally Gethin said flight data currently available suggests there was a “10 to 20-second spell where one or more of the pilots regained consciousness and tried to save the plane” before it smashed in theground.

Ms Gethin said all of the 132 on board “would have been unconscious” for this final plunge, and while pilots of all experience levels get plenty of simulator training on the ground — the real world provides a different set of challenges.

“In the real world, they can get overwhelmed or disorientated by sudden events. This is known as the startle effect, and it is very hard to train for that,” she explained.

“Even experienced pilots can be caught off guard and that’s when they can make poor judgments. Now there are efforts to recognise that and offer additional training.”

Ms Gethin said it was “unusual” that the co-pilot on board the flight had 30,000 hours of flight experience while the pilot had just 7,000 under their belt.

The Boeing 737-800 is regarded as one of the safest in the world, according to some aviation experts. The model is used by Qantas, Virgin Australia and REX.

It is understood a third trainee pilot with just a few hundred hours was also on the doomed flight.

Speaking to news.com.au, aviation expert and Editor-in-Chief of Airlineratings.com Geoffrey Thomas said the fact there was “no warning from the cockpit crew” and the characteristics of the aicraft’s descent profile initially suggests one of two causes for the crash.

“It would appear to have been either a catastrophic failure caused by major structural failure or a bomb,” he said, adding “pilot suicide cannot be ruled out” either.

“The two black boxes will be critical to this investigation and hopefully they will be recovered shortly.”

Mr Thomas said the aircraft involved in the crash is one of the safest in the world, with over 7,000 in service around the world performing on average about 4 flights a day.

Rescuers working at the site of a plane crash in Tengxian county, Wuzhou city, in China's southern Guangxi region. Picture: AFP/China OUT

The newer model of the 737-800, being the 737 MAX, is what was fitted with the Manoeuvring Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) system.

This variation of the 737 was involved in two crashes, one being Lion Air Flight 610 on October 29th, 2018 and the other being Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 in March 2019, both of which crashed shortly after takeoff and killing everyone on board both planes.

Aviation authorities around the world grounded the aircraft in response between March 2019 and December 2020.

Following the controversy around the two crashes, it was revealed that the Federal Aviation Administration in the US was not made fully aware of the new MCAS system used by the MAX.

Some of the MAX aircraft sit stationary during the grounding. Picture: Mark RALSTON / AFP.

As a result, in January last year, the US Department of Justice found Boeing guilty of conspiracy to defraud the United States over the 737 MAX certification, for which they had to pay over US$2.5 billion in penalties and compensation.

“The 737-800 is the backbone of Australia’s domestic airline fleet being operated by Qantas, Virgin Australia and Rex,” Mr Thomas said of the 737-800.

“The aircraft is Australia’s most reliable and has never been involved in an accident in this country.

The 737-800 does NOT have the MCAS system that is fitted to the 737 MAX, which is a later model.

“China’s airline system is second only in size to the United States and this is the first major crash involving one of the country’s three biggest airlines in 23 years.”