Australia isn’t immune to the impact of world COVID crisis and rising global tensions

We feel lucky in our little corner of the South Pacific but swirling tensions could mean we face the hardest decade for almost 100 years.

As the global economy continues its recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, speculation among economists and Wall Street analysts is building that this decade could be a repeat of the prosperity and growth of the ‘Roaring 1920s’.

But beyond the recoveries in places like the US and Australia driven by trillions of dollars in government support, things are far more reminiscent the economic upheaval and geopolitical disorder of the 1930s.

As the pandemic continues to rage throughout much of the world and people count its cost on their lives, “the times they are a-changin’”, to quote legendary songwriter Bob Dylan.

After decades of perceived stability following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the pandemic has created conditions akin to the early days of the Great Depression throughout much of the world.

A world in crisis

In the developing world, 134 million people have fallen out of the middle class since the pandemic began, reversing years of progress in lifting these millions out of poverty.

Entire countries have been thrown into economic or social upheaval. Turkey has seen the value of its currency collapse, the military has seized power in Myanmar and political instability continues to mount across the globe.

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Protesters taking part in a demonstration against the military coup in Dawei’s Launglone township in Myanmar. Picture: Dawei Watch/AFP

The world’s superpowers have also been increasingly pushing their boundaries amid the atmosphere of uncertainty, with this arguably being exacerbated by the presence of a new administration in Washington.

From the active combat zones of the contested Donbass region of Eastern Ukraine to the escalating tensions across the Taiwan Strait, the sabre rattling and war drums seemingly grow louder with each passing day.

In recent days Russian tanks, surface-to-air missile batteries and heavy artillery have continued to head toward the border with Ukraine and the Russian-occupied territory of Crimea.

According to US intelligence reports there are more Russian forces massed on the border than at any time since Russia previously entered Ukraine in 2014.

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A Ukrainian serviceman cleans his machine gun at a position on the frontline with Russia-backed separatists near Gorlivka, Donetsk region, on April 15. Picture: STR/AFP

The Russian Navy is also moving landing craft and gunboats to the Black Sea, with the Russian Ministry of Defence stating they would take part in upcoming exercises.

The Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe, or OSCE, has also said there has been a spike in GPS jamming in the region, fuelling concerns that a major escalation in the conflict could be imminent.

The Belarusian military has also moved its own forces to the border with Ukraine and will be conducting large exercises around 30km from the border.

US-Russia tensions

The build-up comes amid statements the administration of President Joe Biden promising Kiev the “unwavering support” of the US.

In a recent press conference, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken took quite a hard line with his rhetoric toward Moscow. “If Russia acts recklessly, or aggressively, there will be costs, there will be consequences,” he said.

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Joe Biden has promised the Ukraine ‘unwavering support’ amid growing tensions with Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Picture: Eric Baradat and Pavel Golovkin/Various/AFP

What exactly Mr Biden’s “unwavering support” and Mr Blinken’s “consequences” would actually mean in reality is very much up in the air and open to all sorts of interpretations.

Up until recently American support for Kiev has been focused on a limited number of airlifted arms shipments.

However, late last week Turkish authorities confirmed that two US Navy warships had been given permission to transit into the Black Sea to monitor Russian activity.

Given the ambiguity of the Biden administration’s statements on Ukraine, a group of veteran intelligence officers wrote to the President to urge him not to become involved in a war against Moscow over Ukraine.

China-Taiwan conflict

Meanwhile in the Pacific, tensions also continue to rise.

Recent days have seen record numbers of Chinese Air Force aircraft violating Taiwan’s air defence identification zone and a Chinese Navy carrier battle group sailed through Okinawa’s Miyako strait, prompting Tokyo to scramble fighter jets to intercept and monitor.

Recent pictures from the US Navy destroyer USS Mustin showed the warship shadowing the battle group of the Chinese Navy carrier Liaoning – a move analysts say was designed to send a clear message to Beijing.

Recent pictures from the US Navy destroyer USS Mustin showed the warship shadowing the battle group of the Chinese Navy carrier Liaoning. Picture: US Navy

The USS Mustin was joined in its efforts to keep an eye of the Chinese carrier by the Japanese destroyer JS Suzutsuki, which was ordered by Tokyo to “gather information and monitor the movements of the Chinese vessels”.

What all of this could mean for Australia

In our little corner of the South Pacific with our government stimulus-driven economy, it’s easy to think that the global economy is well down the road to recovery and that the world is returning to normal.

Australia is once again the outlier, the ‘Lucky Country’.

However, if the downside scenarios were realised, Australia’s record lucky run would likely come to an end. In the event of a conflict between the US and China, our nation’s economy would be decimated, as our number one export destination became the enemy of our closest ally.

Australia’s armed forces would also almost certainly be called upon to join our allies in combat and our military installations would become a key part of allied logistics within the region.

HMAS Parramatta conducts joint manoeuvres with USS America, USS Bunker Hill and USS Barry in the South China Sea. Picture: Department of Defence

What next?

The virus continues to decimate economies and stifle recoveries, even in some nations such as Chile where almost 40 per cent of the population has been vaccinated.

At the same time, discontent with governments continues to build in much of the world, as nations without the same scope as Australia for huge stimulus struggle to support their hard hit economies.

For the first time since the early days of the Great Depression, almost every nation in the world faces a challenging road ahead to some degree or another.

While things turning out for the best can never be ruled out, historically periods of widespread economic upheaval and high levels of discontent with governments can prove to be challenging to say the least.

As the superpowers flex their military muscle and rattle their sabres, it’s clear the post-Cold War world of unchallenged American supremacy has come to a close.

What the rest of the decade has in store for us, no one can truly know, but one thing is certain – “the times they are a-changin’”.

Tarric Brooker is a freelance journalist and social commentator | @AvidCommentator