‘Worrying’: Naval chief warns US must double submarine construction to meet AUKUS commitments

Donald Trump’s pick for a top navy role has sounded a dire warning about America’s ability to meet its AUKUS commitments to Australia.

The United States will need to double its construction rate of attack submarines in order to meet its AUKUS commitments to Australia and the UK, Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the US Navy has warned.

Admiral Daryl Caudle, speaking before his Senate Armed Services Committee confirmation hearing on Thursday to become Chief of Naval Operations, said at the current rate of construction he was not sure the US could supply three Virginia-class nuclear submarines to Australia as required under Pillar 1 of the AUKUS agreement.

The AUKUS deal, signed in 2021, is currently under review by the US Department of Defense. Adm. Caudle said the Pentagon-wide review was about US industrial capacity, and not the capability of Australian submariners.

“The question of Australia’s ability to conduct undersea warfare is not in question by me or by anyone,” Adm. Caudle told Senators, per USNI News.

“But as you know, the delivery pace is not where it needs to be to make good on the Pillar 1 of the AUKUS agreement, which is currently under review by our Defense Department.”

The AUKUS deal would see the US share its nuclear propulsion technology for only the second time in history, selling up to five Virginia-class boats to Australia while helping Canberra develop domestic capability to build and maintain its own nuclear-powered attack submarines.

Admiral Daryl Caudle during his Senate confirmation hearing. Picture: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images/AFP

To meet its obligations, Navy officials have said US industrial base must build 2.33 Virginia-class attack boats per year.

It currently builds about 1.3 per year.

“We do have to understand whether or not the industrial base can produce the submarines required so that we can make good on the actual pact that we made with the UK and Australia, which is around 2.2, 2.3 Virginia-class submarines per year,” Adm. Caudle told Democratic Senator Tim Kaine.

“That’s going to require a transformational improvement — not a 10 per cent improvement, not a 20 per cent, a 100 per cent improvement. We need a transformational improvement and the ability to deliver twice the capacity that we’re currently delivering.”

Adm. Caudle said the US would likely need to work with international allies and partners to build and maintain its fleet while it built up its domestic industrial capacity.

“I don’t know how we do what we need to do without bringing international partners into the capacity problem that we have while we build up our capacity because we need ships today,” he told Republican Senator Tommy Tuberville.

“And so there are no magic beans to that. There’s nothing that’s just going to make that happen. So the solution space has got to open up, and I think part of that has to look at international partnerships to give us a little bit of a relief valve while we work on our own organic industrial capacity.”

A Virginia-class attack submarine under construction. Picture: Newport News Shipbuilding via Navy

Committee chairman Roger Wicker, a Republican, stressed the need to fulfil the US’s AUKUS commitments.

“There needs to be some creativity, some ingenuity, some outsourcing improvements,” Adm. Caudle agreed. “We need an all-hands-on-deck approach to this to get to the 2.3 submarines per year.”

Adm. Caudle told the committee in his written testimony that “current trends are worrying, and should I be confirmed, this issue will have my utmost attention and priority to ensure a productive outcome”.

“If confirmed, I will support the Department of Defense’s review of the AUKUS Security Pact with my best military advice,” he said.

Adm. Caudle warned in his opening statement that “years of shrinking fleet size and diminished shipbuilding capacity and on time repair delivery execution have manifested themselves as persistent challenges, previously masked by unquestioned naval supremacy throughout the last three decades”.

“As China continues to grow its naval strength and the potential for peer naval conflict grows at a steady pace each passing day, the veil is slowly lifting on the impacts of poor choices made decades ago, which leveraged a perceived myopic peace dividend, that now pressurises and oversubscribes our decision space for choices we face today,” he said.

To achieve this, Adm. Caudle said he would “relentlessly pursue full-spectrum readiness — modernising our fleet’s capabilities, scaling readiness capacity, and aggressively forging our resilient and resourceful sailors who bring all our combat power to life”.

The AUKUS review, led by Undersecretary of Defense Policy Elbridge Colby — who had expressed scepticism of the deal while out of government — was announced on June 11, sparking concerns about the future of the pact.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Picture: Jim Watson/AFP

Mr Colby recently made headlines when it was revealed he was pressuring the Australian and Japanese governments to reveal what they would do if China invaded Taiwan.

Last week, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed Australia had sent another $800 million to the US as part of the AUKUS “schedule” despite the review.

The new payment took the total to $1.6 billion.

“There is a schedule of payments to be made, we have an agreement with the United States as well as with the United Kingdom,” Mr Albanese told ABC’s Afternoon Briefing.

“It is about increasing the capacity, their industrial capacity, and as part of that, we have Australians on the ground, learning the skills so that when it comes to the SSN-AUKUS, the submarines being built here in Australia, we have those skills.”

Defence Minister Richard Marles earlier confirmed the report saying “the payments are occurring in line with Australia’s commitment to contribute $US2 billion by the end of 2025, which underscores our commitment to the successful delivery of AUKUS Pillar 1 outcomes”.

The new payment came as Opposition defence spokesman Angus Taylor said he was “worried” about the government’s position on defence.

“I worry that the government — I think it’s not just me worried, I think every expert looking at this is making these comments — they’re deeply worried that we’re not on our way to having the defence force we need in such an uncertain time,” Mr Taylor said.

“We’ve got authoritarian regimes around the world flexing their muscles.”

The AUKUS deal is a long-term arrangement that will cost upwards of $268 billion, and as much as $368 billion, over the next 30 years.

The review comes as the Trump administration expresses growing concerns about Australia’s defence spending.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has made it clear the US expects Canberra to lift its defence budget to 3.5 per cent of GDP, up from roughly 2 per cent currently, or around $56 billion in 2024-25.

Mr Marles said in May that he had told his counterpart “this is a conversation that we are very willing to have”.

— with NCA NewsWire