Analysis: Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes
THE step-up to 1600m at the Valley on Saturday should be perfect for Suavito, argues Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley.
THE step-up to 1600m at the Valley on Saturday should be perfect for Suavito, argues Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley.
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THE FACTORS
Track: Good 4
Rail: Out 3m
Forecast: 15C Showers.
THE SPEED
Should be busy early with THE CLEANER likely to lead from MAHUTA. MISS ROSE DE LAGO will also push forward from her outside draw. JAQUINOT BAY will also be on the speed. THE UNITED STATES is capable of taking up a forward spot. TOSEN STARDOM and SUAVITO should get nice positions off the speed.
DATO TAN CHIN NAM STAKES (1600m)
Group 2, Moonee Valley
Race 8, 4.50pm
1 TOSEN STARDOM 5 Darren Weir John Allen 59kg $5
2 THE UNITED STATES 8 Robert Hickmott Katelyn Mallyon 59kg $6.50
3 THE CLEANER 11 Peter Gelagotis Steven Arnold 59kg $11
4 JACQUINOT BAY 3 Team Hayes Damian Lane 59kg $21
5 SIGNOFF 1 Darren Weir Harry Coffey 59kg $35
6 EXCESS KNOWLEDGE 4 Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott Steven King $21
7 AWESOME ROCK 2 Leon & Troy Corstens Stephen Baster 59kg $17
8 MAHUTA 14 Darren Weir Michael Dee (a) 58.5kg $8
9 TAVAGO 6 Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young Ben Melham 58.5kg $26
10 SUAVITO 10 Nigel Blackiston Michael Walker 57kg $9
11 REAL LOVE 7 Darren Weir Chris Parnham 57kg $61
12 MISS ROSE DE LAGO 15 Danny O’Brien Damien Oliver 57kg $6
13 SET SQUARE 9 Ciaron Maher Luke Nolen 57kg $19
14 JAMEKA 13 Ciaron Maher Craig Williams 56.5kg $7
15e ENTIRELY PLATINUM 12 Team Hawkes Dwayne Dunn 59kg $13
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THE SKINNY by MICHAEL MANLEY
TOSEN STARDOM
Ex-Japanese performer who was placed in the 2015 Ranvet Stakes in Australian debut for Darren Weir. Three starts ago he was only three and a quarter lengths astern of superstar Maurice over a mile. Whispers from the Darren Weir barn suggest he’s flying. If that’s the case he’ll go close.
THE UNITED STATES
Graduated to being a Group 1 winner last time in with a win in the 2016 Ranvet Stakes in Sydney. Athletic galloper who flies fresh and likes this track. Should go close.
THE CLEANER
Has won the past two runnings of this race when with Mick Burles but that fairytale association has ended. His debut for Peter Gelagotis was a pass mark in the Lawrence Stakes as he went head to head with Lord Of The Sky. He’s four from four this track and distance. Tomorrow will tell us where the nine-year-old is at.
JACQUINOT BAY
Under-rated veteran who fought hard for second in the Lawrence Stakes. Still he’s a query at this level and will need everything to fall into place for him to be in the finish.
SIGNOFF
Top-class stayer whose first-up failure in Adelaide should be forgotten as he went back in on a leader dominated day. Will be an improver but he won’t fire up until he gets over more ground.
EXCESS KNOWLEDGE
Gai’s gifted import who always runs well fresh. Has trialled and worked well going into this and could show up at big odds. Still an unknown against a field of this quality.
AWESOME ROCK
Not disgraced when he resumed in the Lawrence Stakes when he looked in need of the run. Usually races well second up and is an improver.
MAHUTA
Third of Weir’s quartet has lost his picket fence habit and may not be the horse we thought he was but gets his chance here. Chased Charmed Harmony in the Memsie last week and fought on well for third behind Black Heart Bart. Probably should have finished second as he was held up for a run early in the straight. Backs up but is tough and will be right on the speed.
TAVAGO
Lightly-raced Kiwi stayer who with his trainers Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young has crossed the Tasman to make Victoria home. Hasn’t raced since he strolled in with the ATC Derby. Good record at this distance.
SUAVITO
First-up effort in the Lawrence Stakes could be construed as disappointing or the run of a mare who is looking for more ground. She finished off in reasonable fashion and blinkers go back on. She races well second up and 1600m will prove ideal.
REAL LOVE
Capable staying mare resuming. Query at this level and likes it further.
MISS ROSE DE LAGO
Always been a talented mare but took her game to a new level with strong win in the Lawrence Stakes three weeks ago. Was perfectly ridden and everything fell into place. Has to deal with an outside draw this time.
SET SQUARE
2014 Crown Oaks winner resumed from 10 months on the sidelines with excellent run in the Lawrence Stakes where she finished off the race in the fastest last 200m of 11.85 seconds. Might need another run.
JAMEKA
Doesn’t know how to run a bad race. The 2015 Oaks winner didn’t have a lot of galloping room in the closing stages but still finished off nicely when fourth in the Lawrence. One of the main chances.
ENTIRELY PLATINUM
Returned to form with good first-up third in the Lawrence Stakes. Finished unlucky third in the Makybe Diva Stakes this time last year.
MANLEY TIPS
1 SUAVITO
2 The United States
3 Tosen Stardom
4 Mahuta
Originally published as Analysis: Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes
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