Saturday preview: Nathan Exelby breaks down the main races at Eagle Farm and Flemington

THE Courier-Mail’s racing editor Nathan Exelby searches for a winner at Eagle Farm and Flemington on Saturday.

Nathan Exelby

3 min read

August 5, 2016 - 5:00PM

TAB Update - Horse Racing - Aurie's Star

THE Courier-Mail’s racing editor Nathan Exelby searches for a winner at Eagle Farm and Flemington on Saturday.

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THE FACTORS

EAGLE FARM

Track: Soft (5)

Weather: Mostly sunny, 22C

SPORTSMAN PREVIEW: EAGLE FARM

FLEMINGTON

Track: Soft (5)

Weather: Cloudy, 15C

SPORTSMAN PREVIEW: FLEMINGTON

THE EARLY OIL: FLEMINGTON

Eagle Farm Race 5

Class 3 (1400m) C3 SW, 3pm

In the run: Raffinato can head them up, but doubt they will be out to break any records. Cruising speed can be handy.

Take note: Cruising Speed is bred to get over further, so it was a tidy effort to go back to the sharper 1350m at Doomben last time and still win impressively. Meets some of these worse at the weights, but is on a big upward curve and will relish the bigger track again.

Did you know: Binary has a number of ratings in Sydney that make him hard to beat here and he’s better suited today from a kinder draw. He’s much better than the last start looks on paper and early odds are enticing. Trainer Kelly Schweida in the midst of a memorable run.

Early money: The bottom three The Umbrella Man, Solar Burst and Western Belle are all being kept safe.

Nathan’s tip:Cruising Speed $4.20

Nathan’s danger:Binary $13

Smart Volatility takes out Grafton’s biggest sprint, the Ramornie Handicap, last month. Picture: Jason O'Brien

Flemington Race 7

Aurie’s Star (1200m) G3, 3.50pm

In the run: Runners down the bottom Beirut, Just Magical and Sooboog look the speed. Smart Volatility not far away.

Take note: Tashbeeh stretched to 2000m last prep, but he usually sprints well fresh. Not far off G1 winners Malaguerra and Good Project 3rd up 1400m last prep so no reason he won’t be effective over the Flemington straight 1200m.

Did you know: Smart Volatility got his act together quickly to win 2nd up at Grafton. Still has further scope to improve his ratings, as 18 months back he was close up behind Hong Kong’s best sprinters. Hard to beat again.

Early money: The enigma Sooboog is best backed ($7-$5.50). Ruettiger solid favourite ($3.70).

Nathan’s tip: Smart Volatility $6

Nathan’s danger: Tashbeeh $7

The Monstar (centre) doesn’t have a great record at the distance but a significant drop in weight should help immensely. Picture: Norm Oorloff

Eagle Farm Race 6

National Jockey Celebration (1200m) Open, 3.40pm

In the run: Divine Service will be prominent off the inside and The Monstar will bounce into the gun spot easily. Mana Manu can be handy.

Take note: Rock Royalty was the unlucky runner at Grafton when there was good money for him. But he meets Into The Red (also ran well Grafton) slightly worse at the weights and is a query if the track chops up.

Did you know: The Monstar is only 1/7 at the trip, but he has placed a number of times up the testing straight at Flemington. Gets nice weight relief on Saturday and Skye Bogenhuber will have him on the speed and should take catching.

Early money: Jopa is in from double figures. He has a terrible 2nd up record and awful stats at the old Eagle Farm. But he was super fresh, this is nice progression and he loves sting out, which he will get here.

Nathan’s tip: The Monstar $8

Nathan’s danger:Jopa $8.50

Flemington Race 9

1200m, BM78, 5.05pm

In the run: This is the third straight race of the day, so pattern will be well established. Camdus and Heza Ripper are drawn the inside, while the other major hopes in betting, Badajoz, Tyrannize and Manhattan Blues, are all drawn out wider.

Take note: Camdus was a real eye catcher fresh then given no hope sitting wide in the run last time. Senior jockey Brad Rawiller takes over here and he can bounce back strongly.

Did you know: Tyrannize has met betting rival Badajoz three times and beaten him twice. Each result has gone to the one with the weight pull, which Tyrannize gets again. Only beaten by 100-1 debutant last time and beat the rest well.

Early money: Not a lot of activity. Camdus was backed early but is back out again now. Tyrannize easy with Badajoz the new $4.50 favourite.

Nathan’s tip:Camdus $6.50

Nathan’s danger: Tyrannize $5