Melbourne: Comprehensive preview of every race at Flemington

A COMPREHENSIVE preview of every race for Saturday’s meeting at Flemington with Ray Hickson.

Gun Case. Picture:Wayne Ludbey

NOTE: Numbers in brackets are the official handicap ratings for each horse. Track rated Soft 6 at time of writing, expecting an upgrade.

RACE 1

After categorically stating 1. KHUTULUN (84) was a risk at 2000m last week she comes out and bolts in and I have to go with her to make it back-to-back wins over the trip. Her form mixes in with her main rivals particularly through the 1800m event here on July 23. Hard to beat again. 2. YULONG BABY (81) suggested a win was close with a slashing second-up effort at Caulfield but was fair at best running into fourth in the July 23 race. Perhaps she needed one more run and she’s the one advantaged at the weights so is the logical threat. 4. SAVANNAH MOON (73) managed to outgun Khutulun in the race in question and meets her on similar weight terms. She had support that day and can make her own luck up on the pace so no surprise if she’s there at the finish again. 3. AZ GIVEN (73) hasn’t raced since she easily accounted for Savannah Moon at the Valley almost a month ago and that form has obviously stood up. If she can repeat that sort of effort then she is a definite chance.

RACE 2

Tricky race. 14. WHYOUASK (63) is going to love the 1400m looking at the way she finished off at Sandown on July 20, the only race run on that day before the meeting was called off. She was a mile off the winner at the top of the straight and was powering home, she would have run third in another two strides. A bit harder here but the first two home in that race (Perfectly Safe and Gridelin) are quite handy so she can measure up. 7. BENNY GOES BERZERK (62) was runner-up to Whyouask three starts back before breaking his maiden. Last time out he worked to the line pretty nicely behind Awake In Grinzing, who might be smart, suggesting the 1400m will suit. Good each-way chance. 2. LOCH OIR (68) hasn’t done anything wrong and his win over this course two weeks ago was a tough one. Gets a bit of weight relief with Ben Allen’s claim and he should be competitive again. 1. LESSYD (68) strikes me as an improver on his first-up performance at Caulfield which was poor but he was back and never in the race. Always looked as though a bit more ground would suit him and his form in his first prep was too good to dismiss him on one bad run. 3. ZUNBAQA (70) is obviously a chance after a couple of wins in Adelaide.

RACE 3

The owners of 2. KILLARNEY KID (94) should send a card or some chocolates to Lloyd Williams for accepting with a higher rated horse because he gets in this race amazingly well considering he won an open handicap over this course a month ago with 59kg and actually drops in weight for staying in the same grade. That wouldn’t happen often. He’s flying at the moment, races well on the fresh side and is weighted to win. 3. PIN YOUR HOPES (93) is also in a purple patch and there’s no reason to think he won’t run out the 2000m strongly after romping in two weeks ago over a furlong less. He also won an open that day but rises 3kg (go figure). Will give a sight at least. 1. ALMANDIN (99) is a winning chance despite being responsible for compressing the weights. His first-up effort after two years off was excellent under the circumstances of the day at the Valley seven weeks ago. You had to be on the pace and/or on the rail and he was back and wide and circled them to finish better than midfield. Better suited at the trip and it wouldn’t surprise if he improves sharply. 5. GOLDEN MANE (86) turns up again and he’s holding his form well without winning. Flemington form is a bit patchy but his best trip is the 2000m and he’s a chance of being placed once more.

RACE 4

4. ROYAL RAPTURE (92) picks himself and really stands out in a race flush with stayers resuming, unreliable horses and horses out of form. He gets a nice weight drop after a dominant win over a mile here two weeks ago and his previous win was at this track as well. He should just land in a great spot right on the back of the speed (if he doesn’t lead himself) and be awfully hard to run down. 7. LORD DURANTE (88) is a perennially unlucky horse whose form isn’t too bad despite lacking recent wins. He did have his chance behind Royal Rapture last time but he’s good enough to give it a shake if he gets the breaks. 2. PETROLOGY (94) is incredibly hard to catch and you’d have had the house on him when he sprinted up in the Winter Championship before Iggimacool gunned him down. If he can put two good runs together he’s in the mix here, but do you trust him to? 5. FALAGO (90) has had a freshen up and is back in distance placing behind stablemate Master Of Arts here in June. Residual fitness and his consistency this time in could see him feature in the placings despite being a touch short of his best.

RACE 5

I know trial and jump out form can be a bit hit and miss but 8. ALL CERISE (92) went too well in her jump out at Flemington last Friday for me not to have something each-way on her fresh at 1400m. She’d had a trial in Sydney prior to that and while her first-up form doesn’t read outstandingly as far as stats go she’s never run badly fresh. I’m expecting her to run well. 11. PILOTE D’ESSAI (87) was another standout from the jump outs and he showed a heap of promise at his Australian debut with a dominant win at Bendigo back in March. He’s been gelded since then and he’s the one I’m most frightened of in this race. No knock on the exposed recent form of 6. ULMANN (89) who turned the tables on 5. DUKE OF BRUNSWICK (89) at Caulfield a few weeks ago. Going that way again with the 3kg claim in Ulmann’s favour but both are good chances. 12. MAJESTIC DUKE (87) might be worth throwing in the multiples too. He led when fourth behind Ulmann and will roll forward again here and with three runs under his belt he should be at a peak.

Smart Volatility (grey). Picture: Jason O'Brien

RACE 6

Wide open race and one where it’s hard to be really confident. 8. GUN CASE (84) has the form on the board at the moment with three straight wins and each one has been better than the previous, which is always a good sign. Drawn near the middle and right down in the weights he should give a good account again. 2. HARD ROMP (91) put in his worst run down the straight in quite a while behind Odyssey Moon in June. Freshened up since then and back a bit in grade, and to the 1000m, he can improve sharply and if he finds his best is a threat. 4. TREVINDER (90) ran out of his skin first-up in the Monash and the outside alley is probably a plus for a horse like him. So long as it’s not a disadvantage to be out there, of course. He won second-up last prep at the Valley off a run that wasn’t as good so if he can make the same improvement he’s a strong chance. 12. O’MALLEY (82) is the one you want to keep safe and check for some support on race day. He hasn’t raced for 78 weeks but on his best form he’d clean this lot up. He was showing a heap of ability, including winning easily over this course, a couple of years ago before injury struck him down. Of the others 17. RISEN FROM DOUBT (76) is another talented type returning from a long break and he had a good clean out in a jump out last week.

RACE 7

With Beirut going to Adelaide it really opens the door for 2. SMART VOLATILITY (104) to get some kind of control and if that’s the case he should be hard to beat. Fighting win in the Ramornie at Grafton at his second run in eight months and he’s had straight track experience in Hong Kong. Not a vintage Aurie’s Star and he has the race fitness to make him more than competitive. 9. RUETTIGER (91) is in career best form and comes off a Listed win over this course a month ago. Stays on the limit and this race doesn’t look a whole lot harder. Like Smart Volatility the race fitness is a big plus. 10. MAGNUS REIGN (85) is threatening to win a race and he followed an even effort behind Ruettiger with a nice second here two weeks ago. If he gets the favours in the race he can be in the finish. Hard to leave out 4. MIGHTY LIKE (97) who won that race on July 23 first-up and can only be fitter. He is better known at 1400m or so but he’s one of the chances again.

RACE 8

Never been one of my horses but 1. MISS SOFTHANDS (83) appears well placed second-up and up to 1400m after an eye-catching fifth behind Beirut at Caulfield. Generally a consistent mare and after the claim she stays on the same weight for dropping in class. Expect her to go close. 5. MISS DENNI (80) is a big watch having returned to Chris Waller after a two start campaign in New Zealand. She trialled nicely enough in Sydney last month and kicking off at this trip should suit. Respect any betting move. 3. LAHQA (81) is a tough customer and just doesn’t know how to run a bad race. Coming off a freshen up since a typically game second at the Valley in mid-June, she’s sure to be up there for a long way yet again. 2. MY SISTER LIL (82) showed improvement second-up last week and backing up is a good sign for her. She didn’t have the best of luck in her midfield placing and 1400m will be no issue for her. More than capable of winning.

RACE 9

17. TYRANNIZE (67) is eligible for easier races but I love a lightly raced new season four-year-old dropping in weight early in the season. He was run down by the surprise winner Astro Castro here a couple of weeks ago - either he’s pretty good or it was a fluke but either way Tyrannize didn’t give up the fight when challenged. Oliver sticking is a reasonable pointer and he’s won down the straight 1200m. Plenty to like. 3. HEZA RIPPER (76) is the logical horse to beat but I do wonder about him if the track firms up as he’s a much better horse in genuinely soft ground. He’s had a jump out since his win at Caulfield and if the inside isn’t an issue come the last race he’ll be in the finish. 7. BADAJOZ (73) finished his race off well to run third behind Astro Castro but I did think the first two home were getting away from him in the last 50m or so. Down 4kg and like Tyrannize is a new season four-year-old so that gives him a good chance again. 11. CAMDUS (72) was too bad to be true last start where he drew wide and raced right off the track all the way before dropping out. He resumed with a close second to Heza Ripper so, like that horse, if the inside is fine then he has to be considered.