Melbourne Cup 2019: Race-by-race guide to racing’s biggest day

The race that stops the nation may be the biggest draw card on the day, but there’s plenty of value to be found on the 10-card meet.

The last breath before the Melbourne Cup plunge at Flemington.

UPDATE: Vow and Declare wins the 2019 Melbourne Cup. Full updates here.

Melbourne Cup day is upon us, with Tuesday’s monster 10-race card kicking off nice and early at 10.55am (AEDT).

The track is likely to be in the soft range given the forecast of 5-10mm of rain on Monday night.

Here’s a complete guide to the day from the experts at punters.com.au including all the best bets.

HOW TO WATCH

The 10-race program at Flemington kicks off early at 10.55am (AEDT) with the Darley Ottawa Stakes. You can watch the entire day on Channel 10 or Sky Racing.

RACE-BY-RACE GUIDE

Finche is now Melbourne Cup favourite.

RACE ONE — DARLEY OTTAWA STAKES (1000M) — 10.55AM (AEDT)

Only 2 of the 15 runners here have faced the starter, so constructing an accurate speed map is near-impossible.

This is a guessing game. If you subscribe to the theory that the middle/outside will be the place to be in the straight-course races, then you can probably rule out a few drawn in close. With little to no confidence, Thala (13) goes on top at a double-figure quote. Trained at the track by Ellerton and Zahra, she’s looked good in a couple of jump-outs and gets the services of Damian Lane from what looks a favourable draw.

Anything could win this juvenile race though.

Verdict: Happy to shoulder arms to this opening race but Thala (13) on top if you’re really keen to play.

RACE TWO — GRINDERS COFFEE ROASTERS TROPHY (1400M) — 11.35AM (AEDT)

Hugh Bowman is going to be a busy man on Cup Day.

Al Passem, Reflectivity and East Indiaman look the three most likely to dispute the early lead. Bad Wolf won’t be too far from the action wider out. Phaistos will be looking to slot in around midfield, while William Thomas and Bravo Tango should settle in the last few.

Phaistos (7) is a smart galloper who is unbeaten when fresh (2 from 2). He’s trialled reasonably well in preparation for this and he seems to produce his best on tracks with a little bit of give — which he’ll get here. His one previous run down the straight was a total forgive job so don’t read too much into that 8th-placing in the form guide. The distance (1400m) is the only real query but you’d trust that Cummings has him fit enough for it.

Bravo Tango (3) is a talented horse on his day but a few little niggles have halted his progress. He’s yet to win in five runs at this track but has placed on three occasions and the Mitch Freedman stable is firing at present. He’ll get back but should be hitting the line hard.

East Indiaman (5) has come back in good order this preparation, placing behind the flying Kemalpasa on resumption before digging deep to score over this trip second-up. He doesn’t want it too wet but has to be respected on his 1400m record (9:4-2-1).

Not convinced about William Thomas (1) running a strong 1400m with 60.5kg but he’s a genuine winner (5 from 13) and Oliver takes the ride.

Verdict: Phaistos (7) for the win.

RACE THREE — TAB TROPHY (1700M) — 12.10PM (AEDT)

Tough race to map. Extreme Pride, Maracaibo and Linguist are likely to roll forward. Seewhatshebrings should settle in the fist half of the field, while Sure Knee and Romani Girl will probably drift back from wide draws.

This looks a very tricky mares race so I’m happy to look for a bit of value.

Sheezdashing (3) still sits on just the 1 win from 24 starts and is a bit of a trouble-magnet but this is the easiest race she’s been in for quite some time. She was well-held in the G2 Tristarc (1400m) when resuming but copped a bit of a check in the straight and is better suited over this trip. She’s had five runs on soft tracks and only been out of the placings once.

Sure Knee (7) was a bit plain last start but she may not have enjoyed racing tight in the straight. She shouldn’t have too many traffic issues here from barrier 13 and her Flemington record stacks up nicely (4:1-2-0).

Aliferous (4) looks well-drawn in barrier five. The drop back from 2000m is a bit of a query but her run against the likes of Junipal, Greysful Glamour and Master Of Wine two-back reads well enough to be competitive here.

Seewhatshebrings (10) has won 2 of her last 3 and was only just edged out by the handy Amangiri at The Valley last start.

Verdict: Sheezdashing (3) makes each-way appeal at $16/$4.80.

RACE FOUR — THE MACCA’S RUN (2800M) — 12.45PM (AEDT)

Early speed out wide here through Big Blue, Etah James and Latin Beat. Sin to Win will probably go back from the outside gate, while Shared Ambition maps to settle in the last few.

Shared Ambition (3) should be winning — and winning well — but there are no prizes for ‘finding’ him at $1.80. The short quote looks about right though based on his two runs since joining the Chris Waller stable. The imported gelding charged home from last to score impressively over 1800m first-up, before repeating the dose up to 2407m last time. He possesses a sharp turn of foot for a stayer and should be too good for these. A wet track isn’t a concern given he saluted on rain-affected ground at Down Royal before coming to Australia.

Gayatri (7) looks the only real danger to the favourite, with the Waller-trained daughter of Pierro shooting for her 6th win at start number 14. She handles all conditions.

Kentucky Diva (13 )is one to consider for exotics at double-figure odds.

Verdict: Shared Ambition (3) looks incredibly hard to beat again.

RACE FIVE — SCHWEPPERVESCENCE PLATE (1000M) — 1.20PM (AEDT)

The road to victory still goes through Athiri.

Speed from Young Liam and Can’t Be Done out wide, with Asateer and Sanbuck closer to the inside rail. Varda and Little Rich Boy shouldn’t be too far away on the stand-side.

The Godolphin second-stringer Varda (17) may be able to cause a bit of an upset here at $17. She ran well here two-back with 60.5kg and was only just nosed out over 1100m at Bendigo last time. This is a tougher race but she gets blinkers for the first time here and looks suited coming back to 1000m. The wide draw appears a positive.

Varda’s stablemate Athiri (14) also rates highly. She was unlucky in Listed grade here two starts ago, before finishing 4th in a very hot form race at Caulfield last start. Blinkers go on and she looks to have drawn well for Zahra.

Garner (4) was no match at all for the smart Xilong in Adelaide last start but was super winning at Caulfield two-back, charging home from last at the 400m to nab Sartorial Splendor on the post. SA-trained runners always have to be respected during the Flemington carnival.

Can’t Be Done (3) also has claims in a wide-open dash down the straight.

Verdict: Backing the Godolphin pair Varda (17) at $17 and Athiri (14) at $6.50.

RACE SIX — JIM BEAM STAKES (1400M) — 1.55PM (AEDT)

Sweet Scandal and Jamaican Rain are likely to duel for the lead early. Victory Kingdom maps for a nice run just off the speed, with Into the Abyss and Teleplay a pair further back.

Victory Kingdom (9) looks to have strong each-way claims at $10. She has been kept to sprint trips this campaign but her one and only run at 1400m was very good, finishing a close 2nd to Spanish Whisper in the G2 Kewney Stakes at this track back in March. She maps to stalk the leaders with Joao Moreira in the saddle.

Jamaican Rain (1) will relish the soft conditions here. She boasts an outstanding record on rain-affected ground and will strip much fitter here second-up after finishing midfield over this trip on resumption.

Sweet Scandal (4) finished 3rd to Tofane last start, who has won in impressive fashion again since. She’s 2 from 3 on soft ground and boasts a win and a minor placing from three goes over this distance. She’ll land in the first couple from barrier four.

La Tigeresa (8) was a class above at Moe last start. This is harder but she was very good in the G3 Tressady over this route earlier this year so she’s certainly not out of her depth class-wise. The more rain, the better for her (2 from 2 on heavy ground).

Verdict: Victory Kingdom (9) makes each-way appeal at $10.

RACE SEVEN — LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP (3200M) — 3PM (AEDT)

Glenn Boss riding Constantinople.

Constantinople (19) ticks plenty of boxes and looks hard to beat provided he settles. That’s a rather big ‘if’ because he can be quite erratic at times.

The horse who looks over the odds is last year’s third-placegetterPrince Of Arran (12) at $21. He’s yet to miss a place from five starts in Australia and he’s drawn beautifully here in barrier eight.

The Waller-trained Finche (11) hasn’t put a foot wrong this campaign, whileSouthern France (5) looks a must for exotics at around $26. His dominant win over Downdraft two-back reads well given what we saw on Derby day.

Vow And Declare (23) and Mer De Glace (2) are certainly not without hopes also.

Verdict: Constantinople, Prince Of Arran, Finche, Southern France, Vow And Declare

READ: FULL MELBOURNE CUP RUNNER BY RUNNER GUIDE

RACE EIGHT — FURPHY PLATE (1800M) — 4PM (AEDT)

Runaway looks the leader but outside of him it’s a messy speed map. Junipal and Looks Like Elvis will probably settle in the first five or six from inside draws.

Junipal (17) is racing in good form this preparation and is capable on all surfaces. He won well over 1600m three-back before fading in the G1 Epsom Handicap (1600m) after covering extra ground from a wide gate. The Maher and Eustace entire charged home for a close-up 3rd after encountering a few traffic issues last start and this is no harder.

Looks Like Elvis (11) had no luck at all last start when dropping back sharply from 2025m to 1500m. He jumps up to 1800m here, so it certainly hasn’t been a conventional preparation for the Queensland visitor but he is a two-time winner over this trip and he maps for a lovely run. Williams taking the ride is a positive.

So You Win (8) was G3-placed two-back and was solid in the Cranbourne Cup (2025m) last start. Three of his five wins have come on rain-affected ground and he should find Flemington to his liking.

Super Titus (9) looked well above-average winning the Listed Heatherlie Handicap (1700m) four-back but has been disappointing since. He does drop back in grade though here and may be worth one more chance.

Verdict: Junipal (17) looks well-placed here.

RACE NINE — MSS SECURITY SPRINT (1200M) — 4.40PM (AEDT)

Royal Symphony has been living the good life for two years.

Runson will probably set the pace in this straight-course race, ahead of maybe Holbien and More Than Exceed. Tactical Advantage and Royal Symphony are likely to settle towards the back.

Parsifal looks the horse to beat on paper but barrier one could be problematic, particularly by this stage of the day.

Comeback galloper Royal Symphony (1) resumes here off a 738-day break — more than a little freshen-up — after changing stables from McEvoy to Hawkes. He won his first four starts and looked like being an absolute star but unfortunately injury stopped him in his tracks. His trials leading into this have been encouraging and he might be worth a speculative play given what we saw from him early days.

Tactical Advantage (2) was out-sped in the G1 Moir Stakes (1000m) two-back before working home well without threat in the G2 Caulfield Stakes over the same trip. The step up to 1200m looks perfect for him third-up and he’ll also appreciate the drop in grade.

Parsifal (6) looks poorly drawn but is going too well to disregard, while Haunted (3) was impressive winning at Caulfield last start, defeating Parsifal.

In-form SA visitor More Than Exceed (13) is worth throwing in the quaddie at double-figure odds. He’s never finished worse than 2nd in seven starts on soft ground.

Verdict: Small bet on Royal Symphony (1) who will be underdone but may be too classy.

RACE 10 — THE HONG KONG JOCKEY CLUB STAKES (1400M) — 5.15PM (AEDT)

Speed looks to be drawn in close here, with Xilong, Wild Vixen and Charleise likely to be prominent early. It’s Kind Of Magic and Excused won’t be too far away.

Pretty Brazen (4) was pretty awesome winning over this distance at Caulfield last start, rounding her rivals up to score by a widening 1.5L. She’s had four runs in Victoria for two dominant wins and a close 2nd to Microphone as a 2YO — so it’s hard to knock her form. The McEvoy filly will drift back from barrier 13 but look for her to be motoring at the business end.

Xilong (5) is a promising filly whose only defeat in four starts came at the hands of Li’l Kontra, who was 4th in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m) on Saturday. She was destructive leading all the way to score by 5L at Morphettville last start and has the gate speed to make the most of barrier one.

The Waller-trained Betcha Flying (6) should have won in Sydney last start but just arrived too late after being held-up at vital stage. There’s no reason why she can’t show further improvement third-up.

California Salto (11)won well last start and was a massive winner on a Soft 6 track prior to going for a break so the wet deck won’t worry her at all.

Verdict: Pretty Brazen (4) for the win, but wary of the stablemate Xilong (5).

— This article was originally published by punters.com.au and reproduced with permission