Melbourne Cup 2019 predictions: The ultimate form guide for race that stops a nation

The Melbourne Cup market won’t sit still as punters struggle to choose between a trio of favourites and a longshot shortens rapidly.

Vow And Declare has won the Melbourne Cup, in a thrilling finish at Flemington.

For full updates go here

Finche began the day as the favourite for the Melbourne Cup, was forced to share top billing with Mer De Glace mid-morning — and is now back in clear air at $8.50.

Mer De Glace ($9.50) had been the top pick after drawing well in barrier two but a betting plunge saw Finche move ahead. Constantinople ($9.50) also remains popular.

The Chosen One has been the big mover of raceday, shortening from $101 into $34.

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The experts at punters.com.au have cast their eye over all 24 runners in the race — which will be run at 3pm AEDT at Flemington — and picked the best handful of chances and how you should invest your cash.

Last year’s Melbourne Cup winner Cross Counter will attempt to go back to back. (AAP Image/Vince Caligiuri)

1. CROSS COUNTER (GB) — Barrier: 5 Weight: 57.5kg Jockey: William Buick Trainer: Charlie Appleby Odds: $15 (Win), $4.40 (Place)

The Charlie Appleby-trained galloper carried 51kg to victory in last year’s Cup but rises to 57.5kg here. That’s a significant weight increase but he’s obviously a top-class stayer who has performed well in three runs since his Cup win. He was just 1.75L off Stradivarius – the best stayer in the world – in the G1 Gold Cup (4014m), before finishing 3rd to that same galloper in the G1 Goodwood Cup (3219m). The tempo was probably against him last start when unplaced as a $2.50F in the G1 Irish St Leger (2816m).

Why he can win: He was awesome winning this race last year and with just 12 starts to his name, he is still improving and maturing.

Why he can’t win: Only four horses in the history of the Cup have gone back-to-back. The jump from just 51kg to 57.5kg is hugely significant.

2. MER DE GLACE (JPN) — Barrier: 2 W: 56kg J: Damian Lane T: Hisashi Shimizu Odds: $9.50, $3

After stringing together a sequence of five wins in Japan, this 5YO entire proved a class above in the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) last start, showing a brilliant turn-of-foot halfway down the straight to salute by 1L ahead of Vow And Declare and Mirage Dancer. That was his first go beyond 2200m, so two miles is certainly uncharted territory for the Shimizu-trained galloper. He possesses a sharp sprint, but the question is whether he can sustain that sprint down the long Flemington straight. Lane will likely need to weave a passage through from beyond midfield.

Why he can win: He’s won six races in a row and was impressive taking out the Caulfield Cup last start. He only rises 0.5kg on that and meets many of the same horses.

Why he can’t win: The rise to 3200m is a legitimate query, as is the predicted soft ground.

3. MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) Barrier: 1 W: 55.5kg J: Frankie Dettori T: Joseph O’Brien Odds: $23, $6.50

This Frankel gelding was just 1.1L off Stradivarius in the Gold Cup (4014m) three-back, so he won’t have any issues with the two-mile journey here. Both Southern France and Downdraft had his measure in the G3 Irish St Leger Trial (2816m) in August and he was well-held when finishing midfield at G1 level last start. He should land in the first four or five from his inside gate and a bit of give in the ground is a positive.

Why he can win: The Stradivarius form is hard to knock. He was also strong winning the G3 Vintage Crop (2816m) over Mustajeer back in April.

Why he can’t win: His last couple of runs have been only even. He’s possibly a bit too dour.

4. MIRAGE DANCER (GB) — Barrier: 13 W: 55.5kg J: Ben Melham T: Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young Odds: $41, $11

This Frankel entire was outsprinted by Mer De Glace in the Caulfield Cup last start but there was certainly merit in his 1.2L 3rd. The Busuttin and Young-trained stayer copped a bump halfway down the straight but the way he picked himself up and worked to the line was encouraging. Melham sticks and a tongue tie goes on for the first time. The rise to 3200m is a query but he maps favourably and is rock-hard fit having his sixth run since May.

Why he can win: He was good in the Caulfield Cup and there’s no reason why he can’t show further improvement at his second Australian run.

Why he can’t win: Vow And Declare beat him home last start and is even better suited over this distance, so it’s hard to see Mirage Dancer turning the tables on him.

Mer De Glace won the Caulfield Cup. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)

5. SOUTHERN FRANCE (IRE) — Barrier: 14 W: 55.5kg J: Mark Zahra T: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace Odds: $26, $7

Now with the Maher and Eustace camp, this son of Galileo wasn’t far off top-liner Kew Gardens in the G1 Irish St Leger (2816m) last start, which looks a nice reference for this. Two-back he defeated dominant Hotham winner Downdraft by 2L, with Master Of Reality a further 2L away in 3rd. With that in mind, it’s hard to understand why he was a longer price than Master Of Reality prior to some market support on Sunday. Six runs ago he finished within a length of Stradivarius in the G2 Yorkshire Cup (2800m). A cross-over nose band goes on for the first time here.

Why he can win: With the exception of his 9L 4th in the G1 Goodwood Cup (3219m) three-back, his form looks excellent – particularly his dominant victory over Downdraft two starts ago.

Why he can’t win: While his form looks good over 2800m, he failed in his only start over this distance, finishing nearly 7L off Cross Counter.

6. HUNTING HORN (IRE) — Barrier: 11 W: 55kg J: Seamie Heffernan T: Aidan O’Brien Odds: $51, $13

This O’Brien-trained stayer certainly appreciated a drop in grade to win the G2 Moonee Valley Cup (2500m) last start after racing against the likes of Crystal Ocean, Enable, Bricks And Mortar and Magical in the UK and America prior to coming over here. Third in that Valley race, which was run at a very slow tempo early, was Downdraft, an impressive winner of the Hotham on Derby day. He’s yet to race beyond 2500m, and although strong late last start, he was entitled to be given the sit-and-sprint nature of the race.

Why he can win: He easily accounted for Downdraft last start, who was then a dominant winner of the Hotham on Saturday. The Aidan O’Brien polish can never be underestimated.

Why he can’t win: Unproven over this distance and finished a long way from Magic Wand when the two clashed at Arlington back in August.

7. LATROBE (IRE) — Barrier: 22 W: 55kg J: James McDonald T: Joseph O’Brien Odds: $21, $6

This will be Latrobe’s second run in Australia after contesting last year’s G1 Mackinnon Stakes (2000m) where he finished 2nd to Trap For Fools, beaten a head. That experience should hold him in good stead and he comes here with a strong fitness base having raced six times this year at 2000m and beyond. He was solid in the G2 Curragh Cup (2800m) three starts ago and backed that up with a strong win at G3 level over 2414m. He was perhaps a little disappointing in the G1 Irish St Leger (2816m) last start and barrier 22 is no luxury.

Why he can win: Ran well at his only previous start here, which was in G1 company. James McDonald and Joseph O’Brien is a very handy combination.

Why he can’t win: Plain last start, finishing a couple of lengths off Southern France. He’s yet to win beyond 2414m.

8. MUSTAJEER (GB) — Barrier: 6 W: 55kg J: Damien Oliver T: Kris Lees Odds: $17, $5

The 2019 Ebor Handicap (2787m) winner put in an encouraging first-up effort in the Caulfield Cup (2400m), finishing 1.8L off Mer De Glace. He got a long way out of his ground but hit the line with gusto and he gives the impression that he’ll enjoy racing at Flemington. He’s a bit of a quirky customer who can mix his form, but Australian Bloodstock know what sort of horse it takes to win this race (Protectionist, 2014). The Ebor is generally a pretty reliable guide to this race.

Why he can win: Horses who have performed well in the Ebor have traditionally been competitive in this race (Heartbreak City in 2016 a recent example). Jockey Damien Oliver is riding in sensational form.

Why he can’t win: Although he was good late in the Caulfield Cup, others were better. The horse he beat in the Ebor, Red Galileo, could only manage a midfield finish in the Geelong Cup.

9. ROSTROPOVICH (IRE) — Barrier: 12 W: 55kg J: Dwayne Dunn T: David Hayes, Ben Hayes and Tom Dabernig Odds: $71, $15

This Lindsay Park galloper finished 5th in this race last year after covering a bit of extra ground from barrier 21. He’ll carry an extra 4kg here and his form leading in isn’t as strong as it was 12 months ago. His first-up effort in the G1 Makybe Diva (1600m) was sound, but he’s failed to flatter in two runs since, beating just two runners home in the Caulfield Cup last start. The stable have tinkered with his gear, adding a cross-over nose band and a tongue tie, but he needs to find a few lengths.

Why he can win: Ran well in this race last year after jumping from barrier 21. He’s drawn much better here in 12.

Why he can’t win: He just doesn’t appear to be going well enough.

Rostropovich. (Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)

10. TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE) — Barrier: 19 W: 55kg J: Hugh Bowman Trainer: Joseph O’Brien Odds: $41, $11

One of four Joseph O’Brien-trained runners in the race, this 7YO gelding comes here having won two of his last three starts in Ireland. He was too strong for stablemate Latrobe in the G2 Curragh Cup (2800m) two-back but was outclassed in the G1 Irish St Leger (2816m) last start. He did settle a bit further back than usual on that occasion though so perhaps you could make an excuse for him there. Expect Bowman to send him forward from barrier 19 in this. A tongue tie goes on for the first time.

Why he can win: Beat Latrobe fair and square two starts ago. That horse was good in last year’s G1 Mackinnon Stakes at this track. Bowman is a man for the big stage.

Why he can’t win: Southern France had his measure last start and it’s difficult to see him turning the tables on that galloper. As a 7YO, he might not have the necessary scope for improvement.

11. FINCHE (GB) — Barrier: 4 W: 54kg J: Kerrin McEvoy T: Chris Waller Odds: $8.50, $3

The Waller on-pacer ran a cracking race for 4th in the 2018 Melbourne Cup and he certainly hasn’t gone backwards since. The son of Frankel probably needed the run first-up over 1600m but displayed great improvement at his second run this campaign to take out the G3 Kingston Town Stakes (2000m). He was just nosed out in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) two-back before showing plenty of determination to hold 5th in the Caulfield Cup last start after covering ground from his wide draw. He’s drawn for a much more economical run in this from barrier four.

Why he can win: He finished 4th in this race last year and has no doubt improved with racing. Importantly, he stays at 54kg. The draw means he should get every chance.

Why he can’t win: Unplaced in his only previous run over two miles.

12. PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) — Barrier: 8 W: 54kg J: Michael Walker T: Charlie Fellowes Odds: $18, $5

This galloper grows an extra leg in Australia. The Charlie Fellowes-trained gelding has had five starts down under – all in Group races – and never missed a place. He backed up a strong win in the G3 Hotham (2500m) to finish 3rd in last year’s Melbourne Cup and only rises 1kg (to 54kg). The seasoned stayer was terrific finishing 2nd in the G2 Herbert Power (2400m) two-back when covering additional ground and giving weight to the winner, before fighting off True Self to take out the G3 Geelong Cup (2400m) last start. Walker should be able to find a lovely forward spot in running from barrier eight.

Why he can win: He finished 3rd in this race last year and appears to be going even better. He meets 2018 Cup winner Cross Counter 5.5kg for a 3L margin and has drawn perfectly.

Why he can’t win: He’s tough, but does he have the turn-of-foot to win a Melbourne Cup? The Geelong Cup form looks questionable with 3rd-placegetter Haky running a shocker at his next outing in the Hotham.

13. RAYMOND TUSK (IRE) — Barrier: 3 W: 54kg J: Jamie Spencer T: Richard Hannon Odds: $23, $6.50

Mustajeer won the Ebor but this galloper undoubtedly should have finished closer. He went back from barrier 21 and encountered a few traffic issues but really caught the eye late in what was a lovely Melbourne Cup trial. He should be able to settle a bit closer in this from barrier three but it may require another duck-and-weave job by Spencer. He was only average in the G1 Gold Cup (4014m) two-back but finished 2nd to gun stayer Dee Ex Bee over this trip four starts ago, so the two miles won’t trouble him. The addition of synthetic hoof filler is a slight query.

Why he can win: Was arguably just as good as Mustajeer in the Ebor Handicap (2787m) last start. The rise to 3200m looks ideal.

Why he can’t win: All of his form is on dry ground, so a genuinely rain-affected track could pose a problem. His only win at Group level was at San Siro (Italy), which is a couple of levels below this standard.

14. DOWNDRAFT (IRE) — Barrier: 15 W: 53.5kg J: John Allen T: Joseph O’Brien Odds: $23, $6.50

On face value, his first-up run in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup (2500m) was underwhelming, but the terribly slow pace was clearly against him there. He stepped out over the same trip in the G3 Hotham on Derby day and bolted away in the straight after stalking the leaders, crossing the line 1.5L ahead of Carif. That was a promising Cup trial but the quick back-up is a first for the Joseph O’Brien-trained galloper, so it’s a real guessing game as to whether he handles it.

Why he can win: Was dominant winning the Hotham in what was a real staying test. He possesses a genuine will to win, with 7 victories from just 18 starts.

Why he can’t win: Drew barrier one in the Hotham and settled into a lovely spot just off a strong tempo. It’s unlikely that he’ll enjoy the same run here from barrier 15. Only three horses since 1960 have managed to complete the Hotham/Melbourne Cup double.

15. MAGIC WAND (IRE) — Barrier: 24 W: 53.5kg J: Ryan Moore T: Aidan O’Brien Odds: $21, $6

Although her record reads just 2 wins from 20 starts, Magic Wand has been highly-competitive against some of the best horses in the world – chasing home Bricks And Mortar three-back and Magical in the G1 Irish Champion (2012m) in September. Her most recent effort in the Cox Plate was excellent, leading to the home turn and battling on bravely for 4th. The extra 1200m here is a real query though given she’s even a little suspect at 2400m. The barrier means she’ll have to do plenty of early work if she’s going to race where she’s most comfortable (on-speed).

Why she can win: The Cox Plate has produced a couple of Cup winners in recent times (Green Moon in 2012 and Fiorente in 2013).

Why she can’t win: She’s better at 2000m than 2400m, so 3200m looks beyond her – especially given she’s drawn the carpark.

Horsham trainer Paul Preusker with his Melbourne Cup hope Surprise Baby. Picture: Micheal Klein

16. NEUFBOSC (FR) — Barrier: 23 W: 53.5kg J: Luke Nolen T: David Hayes, Ben Hayes and Tom Dabernig Odds: $101, $17

A 2nd to top-class stayer Kew Gardens at G1 level reads incredibly well but unfortunately Neufbosc hasn’t been able to produce anything close to that in seven runs since. It’s hard to take too many positives from any of his five runs in Australia and he’s likely to be spotting his rivals a big start in this from barrier 23.

Why he can win: He finished 3L ahead of the very handy Dee Ex Bee at G1 level in France last year.

Why he can’t win: He was incredibly average in the Geelong Cup last start when ridden a treat. Overall, his Australian form has been underwhelming at best.

17. SOUND (GER) — Barrier: 10 W: 53.5kg J: James Winks T: Michael Moroney Odds: $81, $17

This German-bred galloper finished 27.55L off Cross Counter in last year’s Cup and he’s failed to place in six runs since. Based on that, it’s hard to see him figuring in the finish but he at least showed some signs of improvement in the Caulfield Cup last start. He finished 10th but was squeezed at the 200m and probably should have finished closer.

Why he can win: He’s won over this distance.

Why he can’t win: He didn’t enjoy the best of runs but was beaten a long, long way in this race last year and he hasn’t produced a great deal since.

18. SURPRISE BABY (NZ) — Barrier: 20 W: 53.5kg J: Jordan Childs T: Paul Preusker Odds: $13, $4

A son of 2009 Cup winner Shocking, Surprise Baby is still very much on an upward spiral given he’ll be lining up for just 11th career start. He showed his staying prowess with a stylish victory in the G2 Adelaide Cup (3200m) earlier this year, rising sharply in distance from 2000m. He’s since had three starts here for a win in the G3 Bart Cummings (2520m) and two minor placings. He also ran a slashing 4th in the G2 Feehan Stakes (1600m) at The Valley on resumption. He’ll get a long way back from barrier 20 but that’s his pattern anyway.

Why he can win: It’s unlikely we’ve seen the best of this galloper yet but what we have seen is very good. He’s carried 60kg, 58kg, 59kg and 57kg at his last four starts so will appreciate a nice weight drop here (53.5kg). His last-start win here was dominant.

Why he can’t win: The Bart Cummings doesn’t look as strong as the Caulfield Cup as a form reference for this. The runner-up, Supernova, has since finished midfield in the Geelong Cup.

19. CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE) — Barrier: 7 W: 52.5kg J: Joao Moreira T: David Hayes, Ben Hayes and Tom Dabernig Odds: $9.50, $3

This galloper was incredibly stiff in the Caulfield Cup last start, finishing just outside of the placings after finding trouble early in the straight. He copped a check but picked himself up and drove hard late in his first run since August. He’ll strip fitter for this and Flemington looks a far more suitable track for the son of Galileo. The horse who knocked him off two-back in Logician came out and won the G1 GB St Leger (2922m) at his next outing, so Constantinople’s European form is more than handy. He’s drawn well – he just needs to settle for Joao Moreira.

Why he can win: Outside of the winner Mer De Glace, his effort in the Caulfield Cup was the run of the race. His form through Logician is super, he gets in light and he’s drawn favourably. Plenty of ticks.

Why he can’t win: He’s only nine starts into his career and is still learning his craft. He has a tendency to wander around under pressure, which could leave him vulnerable late over this distance.

20. IL PARADISO (USA) — Barrier: 17 W: 52.5kg J: Wayne Lordan T: Aidan O’Brien Odds: $14, $4.20

Like Constantinople, this galloper is a lightly-raced son of Galileo. He only broke his maiden five starts ago but a close-up 3rd behind Stradivarius and Dee Ex Bee two-back has certainly fast-tracked his progress. That run was over this trip and he was also a 12L winner over two miles at the Curragh back in July, so the distance won’t be an issue. He was beaten 5.3L in the G1 GB St Leger (2922m) last start but it wasn’t a bad effort behind the highly-rated Logician. O’Brien has tinkered with his gear here, applying blinkers for the first time, while removing the cross-over noseband and winkers.

Why he can win: It was only a small field but his 3rd behind Stradivarius over this distance two-back reads very well for this. He profiles similar to 2017 winner Rekindling.

Why he can’t win: His two wins have come in a 2400m maiden race and a weak handicap. His last four starts have been in fields of 8, 6, 4 and 8, so the huge field and wide barrier could test the still inexperienced galloper.

Craig Williams rides Vow And Declare. (AAP Image/Vince Caligiuri)

21. STEEL PRINCE (IRE) — Barrier: 16 W: 52.5kg J: Brett Prebble T: Anthony Freedman Odds: $71, $15

This Freedman-trained gelding booked his place in this field with a gritty win over Surprise Baby in the Listed Andrew Ramsden (2800m) here back in May. The 6YO was then given a little freshen-up before working home nicely for a first-up 4th in the Heatherlie Handicap (1600m). He again hit the line in encouraging fashion in the G3 Naturalism (2000m), which saw him line up as favourite in the G2 Herbert Power. However, he played up in the stalls that day and was declared a late scratching. That missed run was a blow from a Cup perspective and his last-start effort in the Geelong Cup (2400m) was only fair.

Why he can win: Many consider Surprise Baby to be a strong hope in this and Steel Prince has beaten that galloper twice.

Why he can’t win: He was plain in the Geelong Cup last start and may be a run short leading into this after his Herbert Power mishap.

22. THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ) — Barrier: 18 W: 52kg J: Tim Clark T: Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman Odds: $34, $9

The Baker and Forsman-trained son of Savabeel is on the quick back-up here after racing in the G3 Hotham (2500m) on Derby day. He got a mile out of his ground and was never a winning hope, working home evenly for 5th, beaten 7.75L. It’s difficult to recommend him on that but his victory over Prince Of Arran three-back reads well for this and he certainly wasn’t the worst in the Caulfield Cup after drifting back from the extreme outside gate. The blinkers come off as he stretches to this trip for the first time.

Why he can win: He’s had a solid grounding for this race, racing over 2400m, 2400m, and 2500m at his last three starts. It’s the old Bart Cummings Cup theory – miles in the legs!

Why he can’t win: Downdraft flogged him in the Hotham, so it’s hard to see him turning the tables on that galloper. Many were better than him in the Caulfield Cup also.

23. VOW AND DECLARE (AUS) — Barrier: 21 W: 52kg J: Craig Williams T: Danny O’Brien Odds: $12, $3.60

This Danny O’Brien-trained stayer was super in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) first-up, going stride for stride with Mystic Journey to the post to finish just outside of the placings. He backed that up with a terrific run in the Caulfield Cup when 2nd to Mer De Glace, who he meets 1kg better here. The rise to 3200m is no issue at all, with the lightly-raced gelding romping home in the G3 Tatt’s Cup over 3000m back in June. This is obviously tougher class-wise but he showed a lovely turn-of-foot at the end of that marathon journey. The draw means he’s likely to settle in the last three or four.

Why he can win: Will stay all day but also has a turn-of-foot. He gets in light with just 52kg and was every bit as good as Finche two-back, who looks a leading hope in this.

Why he can’t win: He’s going to be spotting the leaders a huge start in this from barrier 21 and will have some serious stayers in front of him around the home turn.

24. YOUNGSTAR (AUS) — Barrier: 9 W: 52kg J: Tommy Berry T: Chris Waller Odds: $34, $9

After finishing 6th in this race last year, beaten 5.75L, Youngstar has had eight starts for just one minor placing. In more positive news, that placing came last start in the St Leger Stakes (2600m) at Randwick. She only saw clear daylight late in that race and should have finished closer. Runner-up Carif has since run a slashing 2nd in the Hotham, so the form has stacked up okay. Whether it’s good enough form for a Melbourne Cup is debatable though.

Why she can win: She ran quite well in this event last year and was outstanding in her only other Flemington run when 2nd to the mighty Winx in the Turnbull Stakes.

Why she can’t win: It’s now been 14 starts since her last win and her form doesn’t look good enough.

VERDICT

Constantinople (19) ticks plenty of boxes and looks hard to beat provided he settles. That’s a rather big ‘if’ because he can be quite erratic at times. The horse who looks over the odds is last year’s third-placegetter Prince Of Arran (12) at $17. He’s yet to miss a place from five starts in Australia and he’s drawn beautifully here in barrier eight. The Waller-trained Finche (11) hasn’t put a foot wrong this campaign, while Southern France (5) looks a must for exotics at around $26. His dominant win over Downdraft two-back reads well given what we saw on Derby day. Vow And Declare (23) and Mer De Glace (2) are certainly not without hopes also.

19. Constantinople

12. Prince Of Arran

11. Finche

5. Southern France

23. Vow And Declare

$100 BETTING PLAY

$60 on Constantinople (19) at $8.50

$20 each-way on Prince Of Arran (12) at $17/$5

This article was originally published by punters.com.au and reproduced with permission