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Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s Rosehill tips for Saturday: ‘I think she just wins’

Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy analyse Saturday’s 10-race card for Golden Rose Day at Rosehill, where Duff is very keen to bet up on a speedy mare who looks poised to win.

Ray Thomas
11 min read
September 27, 2024 - 1:01PM
Golden Rose + Manikato Stakes + Grand Final? A weekend like no other!

Racenet and The Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy discuss all the chances at the Group 1 Golden Rose meeting at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

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• BET LIKE A PRO: Get expert tips from Racenet’s team of professional punters

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DUFF’S BEST BET
Race 10 No.11 PHARARI

DUFF’S BEST VALUE
Race 4 No.12 MARE OF MT BULLER

Ray Thomas (left) and Ron Dufficy.
Ray Thomas (left) and Ron Dufficy.

• EXPERT TIPS: James Molony’s race-by-race tips and analysis for Rosehill on Saturday

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RACE 1: MIDWAY HCP (1300m)

Ron Dufficy: I quite like IRON MAN (2) here. I think back in grade, the wet track and with the claim, he’s going to be very hard to beat. He just needs an ounce of luck from that draw. The danger is obviously ALABAMA STATE (18) after nothing went right last start. He just had too much to do, dragging back from that wide draw. He’ll be closer and looks promising. Of the others, I thought the stablemates TREIZE (11), who is ready third-up now, and UNIQUE AMBITION (12), with the booking of Blake Shinn showing intent, will both run well.

Ray Thomas: This is a very open race so I’m going a little wide with TREIZE (11). She’s been improved by two runs from a spell including her game third at Rosehill last start. She came from a similar barrier position, settled outside the leader, got bumped in the straight but still fought hard for third behind Silentsar. She has won on a soft 6 before and is good value at $15. EYE PEA OH (14) is in great form but finding it hard to win. She gets back in her races but will be charging home. ALABAMA STATE (18) got back in the field and kept working to just miss a place in the Silentsar race. THE EXTREME CAT (4) is in top form, gets James McDonald and should go close.

• EXPERT TIPS: Golden Rose, Manikato Stakes plus betting strategies

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RACE 2: HIGHWAY HANDICAP (Class 2, 1500m)

Dufficy: I ended up with DUE CALZINI (15). He’s had a little freshen-up since being outsprinted there first-up. This is not a strong Class 2 Highway and I think he is up to them. The danger I thought maybe BALLINDERRY SAL (11) whose wide run in the Highway last time I am forgiving. One previous win on a soft track was good and a better draw helps. EVERIDO (1) finds his race third-up, back also to a weaker affair and just has to run out the 1500m. I am very wary of MARENARO (3) third-up at 1500m with his pedigree to suggest that he will eat-up the extra ground.

Thomas: Another tough race so I’m going for value again with MISS GHENT (6). She hasn’t won for nearly 12 months but she’s fitter for two runs back, gets a soft track which she enjoys, and will get the run of the race from the inside barrier. At around $18, she’s worth something each way. GHOST WALKER (13) stormed home to win his maiden at Wagga Wagga and continues to improve with racing. DUE CALZINI (15) got a long way back when resuming and didn’t have a lot of luck in the straight. He’s the big improver. Everido is well placed here and should go close.

• Colts battle for stud future in Golden Rose

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RACE 3: COLIN STEPHEN QUALITY (2400m)

Dufficy: I think CAMPALDINO (7) has been toughened up with that run last start. His heavy form in New Zealand was great so I think with control here he is going to be hard to run down. The bolter here is WALTHAM (6). I tipped him last start and he was slow to recover and not competitive but his trials prior on wet going got me in so I can’t let him go around against me. CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD (1) was very one-paced in his two Aussie runs but that softer track could well help him. STRATHTAY (2) was very good prior to last start where he didn’t shape up to the tougher grade but deserves another chance.

Thomas: FIRST LIGHT (5) was doing his best work on the line when he just missed a place behind MATUSALEM (4) over this course and distance last start. First Light is working his way back to top form and gets the soft track conditions he prefers. STRATHTAY (2) has had a long campaign but continues to race well and he’s also very effective on rain-affected going. CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD (1) ran an even race second-up but should improve. MATUSALEM (4) has won three of his last four starts and ticked the 2400m box here two weeks ago but his best form is on top of the ground.

• Market movers: Stablemates $10 into $3.90 and $71 into $17

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RACE 4: BENCHMARK 88 (1900m)

Dufficy: MARE OF MT BULLER (6) is going to adapt to the 1900m second-up better than a couple of these and I thought she did more than enough in a race that looks a good lead-up for today. She meets FIRESTORM (7) 4.5kg better for that run and will be hard to beat. I am a big fan of UNUSUAL LEGACY (8) and I am expecting another really good Metropolitan trial from him. He can probably race closer from that draw here so no knock on him other than he is getting up in the weights now and his Grand Final is next week. Of the others, LINCOLN ROCKS (9) looks a really genuine soft track horse from Victoria and I can’t leave out FIRESTORM (7) as she can only lift off that first-up win.

Thomas: It’s hard to go past UNUSUAL LEGACY (8). He finished powerfully to score over 1800m here second-up and can only improve. Promising stayer who is building a good record. He can win again. MARE OF MT BULLER (6) is the danger. She ran a terrific race when resuming with her fast finishing third under a big weight and will appreciate getting out to a middle distance. LINCOLN ROCKS (9) has won four of his last six starts and comes off a comfortable win at The Valley. LAUDING (11) has been mixing it with Lincoln Rocks in recent weeks and should also run well.

• Bowen’s Kosciuszko ride reads like a movie script

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RACE 5: HERITAGE STAKES (1100m)

Dufficy: I am a believer in the barrier trial of BODYGUARD (1). I think he has got to a price where he is well worth a gamble. I know he is untried on wet ground but geez, he looks to have really developed and who knows, they’re still talking Everest with him. I think GATSBY’S (3) is short enough. He’s been kept fresh for a month since the San Domenico where he didn’t run to market expectations. IKASARA (6) has had two trials, the latest where he was very impressive, and he looks ready to go. He is certainly untapped having only had the one start for one win. HIGH OCTANE (4) will take benefit from his two runs back. He’s a big heavy colt who should be fitter now.

Thomas: GATSBY’S (3) was brilliant winning The Rosebud first-up then didn’t really stretch out on the firm going when fourth to Storm Boy in the San Domenico Stakes. Gatsby’s has been freshened since that loss and will enjoy the soft track here. Big watch on BODYGUARD (1). He’s extremely talented and is resuming here after that brilliant barrier trial win. He seems ready to go for his comeback race. IKASARA (6) is another who showed promise last season winning his only start and returns from a spell on the back of a runaway trial win. WINNING PROPOSAL (8) had a slight setback before the Furious Stakes when she ran competitively. She will be better for that run and is not out of this race.

• Import passed fit to race in NSW ... but not Victoria

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RACE 6: BENCHMARK 88 (1400m)

Dufficy: I think the map is a lot better for WILLAIDOW (12) this week. He was in that fast race there last start and he compounded but I have to be forgiving with that. He’s had a month since and I think will take some catching. RUBY FLYER (2) is big odds. He is an underrated good wet track horse. He’s won fresh at his past two preparations so I think he has to go in. KONASANA (13) is the other one who has really excelled on soft tracks in the past where she is untapped. I thought BATTLETON (10) with his fitness is crying out for this distance.

Thomas: I want to give WILLAIDOW (12) another chance. He couldn’t find the front last start and although he tried hard, he could finish only fourth behind Fox Fighter over 1200m here a month ago. He’s been back to the trials since and steps out over 1400m here. Willaidow handles wet tracks and if he can get control up front he can easily bounce back to winning form. It is significant that James McDonald has retained the ride. RHAPSODY CHIC (8) won four straight before a couple of competitive efforts in Melbourne. He’s had a month between runs and a barrier trial but the likelihood of a wet track is ideal. TAVI TIME (6) is a promising horse who ran in some strong races when last in work. He can sprint well fresh and handles soft-heavy tracks. PRIVATE LEGACY (17) is a promising mare resuming. She was Group 1-placed last season and although this is short of her best, she will be charging home.

• Tropical Squall set to bounce back in Golden Pendant

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RACE 7: GOLDEN PENDANT (1400m)

Dufficy: I am going with SEMANA (4), Ray. I thought that was a great run in the Winx Stakes. She’s just such a good mare, coming out of the right form lines, handles all conditions and never runs badly. AMELIA’S JEWEL (2) is the danger. Beaten but far from disgraced first-up and should come on from that. TROPICAL SQUALL (1) has been freshened. I can’t sack a mare like her off one inconclusive run and the map looks very kind to her here. MAKARENA (7) looked in need of the run first-up so she can go much better here. No knock if you like her.

Thomas: AMELIA’S JEWEL (2) ran a blinder first-up when second to the talented Royal Patronage in the Tramway Stakes. She had to make her run in the worst part of the track and was still closing on the winner on the line. Amelia’s Jewel stays at 1400m but she’s had a month between runs and her second-up record is very good. MAKARENA (7) is very underrated. She tried hard first-up in the Sheraco Stakes, finishing fourth in fast time but is better suited at 1400m. SEMANA (4) rarely runs a bad race and has been kept fresh since her game effort when just behind the placegetters in the Winx Stakes. ARCTIC GLAMOUR (7) didn’t have a lot of luck in the Tramway and should be competitive although a rain-affected track is a concern.

• Amelia’s Jewel set for Group 1 test after Golden Pendant

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RACE 8: GOLDEN ROSE (1400m)

Dufficy: The records say that it is very hard to win this race first-up, no horse has done it, but BROADSIDING (1) might be the exception. He’s had two lovely trials, an exhibition gallop, and he hasn’t had that long off after his JJ Atkins win. I think he is the best horse and have to go his way. I think the bet in the race is TROPICUS (9). He is a very talented horse who has been very green in his two Sydney runs. Hopefully he is better for the experience with a gear change and I can see him charging home down the middle late here. No one missed LINEBACKER (4)’s first-up run and I can understand why he is very popular. TRAFFIC WARDEN (2) is the winner of the lead-up so who is to say he can’t train on. A great race but have to be with Broadsiding.

Thomas: I see this race the same as you, Ronnie. BROADSIDING (1) is a special talent as he demonstrated last season with four consecutive wins including two at Group 1 level. He has brilliant acceleration and handles rain-affected conditions. The inside barrier is not ideal for Broadsiding but that is where we can rely on the genius of James McDonald. STORM BOY (3) had his excuses last start and I think he’s the main danger. I don’t mind his outside barrier because he can be slow away so he will have plenty of galloping room. If he can get a cheap mid-race sectional, then he is going to be tough to run down. TRAFFIC WARDEN (2) was so good first-up and can only be improved by that run. LINEBACKER (4) ran an eye-catcher first-up and he will be finishing strongly.

• Clinton Payne’s Golden Rose tips, runner-by-runner form analysis

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RACE 9: SHANNON STAKES (1500m)

Dufficy: I’m keen on CELESTIAL LEGEND (1), he can bounce back here. I know he looked plain to the eye first-up in the Theo Marks behind Encap but I just think going to 1500m on the soft – he won a Doncaster on a wet track – you’ll see a different horse this week. I am happy to be with him. BASES LOADED (8) is eyeing off the Epsom next week. I would have preferred a little bit drier track but I think he is competitive in anything and this tops him off for the Epsom. AMOR VICTORIOUS (14) gets the blinkers and a month freshen which should help after he went out too hard last start. NEW ENERGY (7) caught the eye when resuming.

Thomas: I’m also with the class of CELESTIAL LEGEND (1). I know he was only eighth in the Theo Marks Stakes when resuming but he’s never won first-up and his closing sectionals were good. He does go well second-up and was dynamic winning the Hobartville Stakes over 1400m here at his second run back last autumn. Drawn a soft barrier and with any luck in running he will be charging home over the top of his rivals. AMOR VICTORIOUS (14) has been improved by two runs from a spell and is down in the weights here. He will race on speed and will look the winner for a long way. BASES LOADED (8) was very good beating all but Encap first-up but he will have to do plenty of work early to cross from his outside barrier. BANDERSNATCH (6) goes well in rain-affected conditions and is the value runner.

• Dale mare deserves crack at Kosciuszko

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RACE 10: BENCHMARK 78 (1100m)

Dufficy: PHARARI (11) is a very sharp mare from Victoria and has got some big wet track figures winning a couple of times on rain-affected going. She is a fast mare who takes a sit off a few speedsters here and I think she just wins. The two value runners are SHEZANALISTER (1) and STROMBOLI (4). Shezanalister drops in class and was a total forgive there last start so I can’t see why she’s the price she is. Likewise with Stromboli. He got caught off the track last start, he’s got a better draw, he is third-up and has really good soft credentials, so two good value runners there. BONITA QUEEN (8) is up in class but is really flying at the moment

Thomas: BONITA QUEEN (8) is a speedy machine. She nearly broke the track record winning easily over the Warwick Farm 1100m course last start. She’s chasing the hat-trick here, has to cope with the rise to Saturday grade and a rain-affected track but she’s flying, is very fit and just might prove too quick for her rivals again. PHARARI (11) is another mare showing sprinting promise and will be hard to beat. STROMBOLI (4) didn’t have a lot go his way last start but should be peaking now and he is effective on rain-affected ground. SIR RAVANELLI (3) is a superior wet-tracker and is capable of an upset.

Originally published as Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s Rosehill tips for Saturday: ‘I think she just wins’

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Original URL: https://www.news.com.au/sport/superracing/nsw-racing/ray-thomas-and-ron-dufficys-rosehill-tips-for-saturday-i-think-she-just-wins/news-story/2dbb0ccaa9505f89a541caf68e61f3ff