The Final Word with Ray and Duff

THE Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy run the rule over day two of The Championships.

Derby Day Races

THE Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy run the rule over day two of The Championships at Randwick on Saturday.

BIG BETS: MONEY TRAIN

BETTING GUIDE/SPEED MAPS: FIVE OF THE BEST

THE GROUP 1s

RACE 6: ATC AUSTRALIAN OAKS (2400m)

MARKET: TAB FIXED ODDS

FIELD/NEWS: SARGENT’S FILLIES ON THE MARCH

Thomas: The Oaks usually has one or two dominant fillies but without First Seal and Set Square, this is very open. Ballet Suite ran a blinder in the Vinery Stud Stakes when fourth to Fenway, which has been scratched from Saturday. There is a bit of Wild Iris about her, the filly coming out of nowhere and peaking for the Oaks. Thunder Lady is proven at this level and she is a strong staying filly, and Winx is also a chance. I think the winner will come out of those three.

Dufficy: Yeah, this is not easy. I’m a Thunder Lady fan although I’m very wary where she will get to in the run here. She is going to need a very, very good ride from Zac Purton. I think she has had a perfect preparation and it was a strong Oaks trial from her in the Vinery Stud Stakes. I’m not going to let Savaria get under my guard. She won the New Zealand Oaks and looks a very strong stayer. She doesn’t have any clockwise experience but I respect her. The Chris Waller-trained fillies, Ballet Suite and Winx are the other chances. Ballet Suite had no luck last start but hit the line very strongly and Winx’s best chance probably comes if this is a slowly run race as 2400m is a whole new pain barrier for her.

RACE 7: QUEEN OF THE TURF STAKES (1600m)

MARKET: TAB FIXED ODDS

NEWS: WALLER BIDS TO OUTDO HIMSELF

Thomas: Noble Protector has been dominant in her two Melbourne wins this preparation and she has form around Contributer last spring but she doesn’t have any wet track form. Catkins gets her chance to win a Group 1 here and I would argue she is going better than ever this autumn but I’ve come back to First Seal. She is better suited at weight-for-age getting 2.5kg off the older mares on Saturday while in the Coolmore Classic she conceded weight to most of her rivals and was only just edged out on the line. She is back to the Randwick 1600m where I felt she produced a career-best effort to win the Flight Stakes last spring. First Seal from Catkins with Amanpour, who is massively over the odds, a real knockout chance.

Noble Protector is unbeaten in two starts this preparation in Melbourne.

Dufficy: I’m sticking with First Seal, too, even though there is that old saying about not sending good money after bad. I’ve lost my money on her three times this autumn. But First Seal is a good filly and she hasn’t finished further back than second at her last nine starts. Amanpour is the best $41 chance you will ever see. This just reads that she has been set for this race and when Gai (Waterhouse) sets them for these big Randwick miles, then they are always hard to beat. Of the others, Telepathic is going well and I like the fact she is coming back from 1900m. I’m not underrating Catkins but she is a little question mark over the Randwick mile. If this track, by any chance gets back to a good 4 then Noble Protector is right in this race. But the reason she came to Australia is because she needs rock-hard, dry tracks and I don’t think she will get that today.

RACE 8: SYDNEY CUP (3200m)

MARKET: TAB FIXED ODDS

FIELD/NEWS: PROTECTIONIST HAS LUNGS TO LAST

Thomas: On weights and measures, Ronnie, how does Hartnell get beaten in the Cup? He carried weight-for-age to beat a world-class horse in To The World in The BMW last start and drops to just 52kg on Saturday. Hartnell looks a handicapping certainty. However, I’m leaning to Protectionist — just. This looks a great Sydney Cup on paper and I think this will be a great race on the track, too. I just can’t get Protectionist’s Melbourne Cup win out of my head, particularly how strong he was at the end of 3200m. He carried 56.5kg in the Melbourne Cup so having 58kg is OK with me. I’m worried about the lack of a genuine tempo and the 6kg weight pull Hartnell enjoys but I’m in Protectionist’s corner.

Dufficy: Great race. I can see where you are coming from with Protectionist but his Melbourne Cup win came off a brutal pace. His main problem is tempo and if we had pacemakers in Australia I’d be on Protectionist but that is not the case. I can’t go away from the obvious in Hartnell, he’s bet of the day for me. He has a turn of speed, he ticks the staying box, he has no weight on his back, he’s adaptable and in great form. Who Shot Thebarman is going well and is a proven two-miler. Dominant ran a good race in the Ranvet Stakes, he looks a real stayer to me, and John Moore is a great trainer so this horse also interests me.

Melbourne Cup winner Protectionist gets his chance to shine again at 3200m on Saturday. Picture: Wayne Ludbey

RACE 9: QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES (2000m)

MARKET: TAB FIXED ODDS

NEWS: STARDOM THRIVES UNDER THE RADAR

Thomas: We have saved the best for last — this is a fantastic race. With Contributer’s scratching on Friday, To The World is the one to beat. The Japanese star was tremendous in The BMW when second to Hartnell. Criterion’s form has been tremendous, he gets up to his preferred distance here and the “cut” in the ground suits him. The other Japanese runner, Tosen Stardom, is a definite chance and with the soft track conditions, I’m expecting Lucia Valentina to run a good race.

Dufficy: We have got a race to rival the Cox Plate. If we can sustain this sort of field for the next two or three years this will be a superior race to the Cox Plate. I’m not too worried the preparation given To The World because this has been the plan, they know their horse and they are comfortable their horse will cope. I think he will improve significantly with The BMW run under his belt and I have to go his way. Tosen Stardom is a big improver and these Japanese horses have a pattern of improving dramatically at their second Australian runs. Criterion looks amazing, he has trialled brilliantly since the Ryder Stakes and is absolutely flying. I’m happy with To The World but I think the winner will come from those four. If Adelaide wins, I’ll cop it but I can’t have him on his trial form. There is this line of thinking that Adelaide must have firm ground but I can’t see the evidence as he has very good wet track form overseas.

To The World is the one to beat after Contributer’s scratching from the Queen Elizabeth.

THE SUPPORT RACES

RACE 4: PERCY SYKES STAKES (1200m)

Thomas: Lake Geneva has been placed in the Blue Diamond and Golden Slipper so she has the right formlines. She is clearly on top from Ottoman and Serenade, who also ran well in the Slipper. Mine Two is an underrated filly and she is an each-way chance. Is this Lake Geneva’s race to lose?

Dufficy: Lake Geneva is the one to beat. She is still a maiden but she has been placed behind the big guns, Pride Of Dubai in the Blue Diamond and Vancouver in the Golden Slipper. I’ve always said she is a good filly and will prove it on Saturday. She must have done well since the Golden Slipper as Team Hawkes would not run them unless they are right. On jockey bookings, Calaverite might be the pick of the Godolphin fillies, Serenade was very good in the Golden Slipper, and Sempre Libera is an improver, but it all points to Lake Geneva.

HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

BEAT THE BOOKIE: VALUE BETS

RACE 5: ARROWFIELD SPRINT (1200m)

Thomas: I’m very keen on Kuro. The deeper he goes into a preparation the better he gets. He was dynamic third-up over the Randwick 1200m last spring. His second against older horses in The Galaxy at Group 1 level tells me he is ready to win back against his own age at level weights. Rubick looks the danger, and the fillies, Mossfun and Earthquake make up the top four.

Dufficy: I have to agree with you on Kuro. I was left a little flat when he was beaten as an odds-on favourite first-up but he was terrific last start in The Galaxy. He must be doing well for Joe Pride to trial him again. Kuro has tactical speed and this race sets up beautifully for him. There is a great chance at big odds here in Rekindled Power. This is a good horse and Paul Messara has set him for the Arrowfield Sprint. I’ll be backing Kuro with a saver on Rekindled Power.

DUFF’S SUGGESTED BETS

BEST BET: Race 8, No.6: Hartnell

EACH WAY: Race 5, No.9: Rekindled Power. Race 7, No.9: Amanpour

QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES FIRST FOUR (RACE 9)

Dufficy: 2, 10, 11, 13

Thomas: (box) 2, 9, 10, 11, 13

Originally published as The Final Word with Ray and Duff