Ray and Shayno’s Turf Talk: $41 top tip at Randwick on Saturday

Ray Thomas and Shayne O’Cass preview the 10-race card at Royal Randwick on Saturday, where Shayno is taking a punt on an import who looks well over the odds at $41.

King Of Florida (circled) can improve markedly off his Australian debut at Rosehill on June 29.

Ray Thomas and Shayne O’Cass preview the 10-race card at Royal Randwick on Saturday, where Shayno is taking a punt on an import who looks well over the odds at $41.

Ray Thomas (left) and Shayne O'Cass.

RAY’S BEST BET
Race 9 No.11 ARAMCO – $5

RAY’S BEST VALUE
Race 8 No.10 BOJANGLES – $8.50

SHAYNO’S BEST BET
Race 7 No.7 KING OF FLORIDA – $41

SHAYNO’S BEST VALUE
Race 6 No.10 CAPTAIN AMELIA – $9.50

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MORE EXPERT TIPS
• Randwick: Professional punter James Molony’s tips and analysis for Saturday
• Caulfield: Cameron Happ thinks $41 roughie ‘will be in it for a long way’
• Caulfield: Laurie Sainsbury’s Saturday longshots, including $51 tip
• Doomben: Graeme Carey’s tips and analysis, including $4 best bet
• Murray Bridge, Belmont: Heath Pope and Aaron Mills’ best bets

ANALYSIS AND NEWS
• Racewatch: Shayne O’Cass’ race-by-race preview and tips for Randwick
• Joe Pride takes Flight at Randwick: ‘She’s just getting better as she gets older’
• Early Oil: Brad Waters’ race-by-race preview for Caulfield on Saturday

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Race 1: 2yo Handicap (1400m)

Ray Thomas: I found it difficult to split the unbeaten colts BARTOLF (2) and WANARUAH (1). I’m leaning to Bartolf as I think he will be better suited at 1400m. He settled off speed, went wide on the turn, quickly reeled in the leaders and won as he liked on debut at Scone. Wanaruah led early, dictated the tempo, dashed clear on the turn and also won with authority at Canterbury. SACRED FORT (7) is promising and is looking for 1400m. GOOD SORT (5) was tough at Canterbury and is an improver.

Shayne O’Cass: Totally agree with the BARTOLF (2) at 1400m theory RT. Just for the record, he is by So You Think with Zamazaan blood through his SAJC Oaks winning fourth dam Neliska which is a longwinded way of suggesting that he is a potential ‘classic colt’ in the 2024/25 season. SACRED FORT (7) has lost a few fans along the way given his costly nature but his record is still very good and to be fair to the horse, he has been unlucky at times.

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Race 2: 3yo Benchmark 72 (1100m)

Thomas: IN FLIGHT (1) has won three of her four starts this winter, all on heavy tracks. She was particularly impressive at Rosehill last start when she rallied gamely under pressure and forged to a strong win. She is paying the price for her consistency and has to shoulder topweight of 60kg but she enjoys wet tracks and is the one to beat. MAFIA (6) was brilliant in his return at Wyong, leading throughout and racing away for a very easy win. He scored on a soft 5 last start and is a query on heavy gong. FLAG HALL (2) is very fast and comes off a five-lengths romp at Gatton. He handles soft tracks well but has never been exposed to heavy conditions. DETENDU (5) broke through for a deserved win at Warwick Farm in heavy going last start and stays under notice.

O’Cass: DETENDU (5) has a win and a four placings from five starts. Three of those are seconds and one of them was to Ducsasse, the third was behind Braveheart. Detendu was emphatic at the midweeks and while it is clearly a harder race on Saturday, he could be in-line for ‘run of the race’ from barrier 2. I am sure KADALL (3) is the best horse in the race; just first-up on a testing track is the only steadier for mine. BALLET D’ESPRIT (7) has been dealt ‘a winning draw’ … and she is up to converting.

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Race 3: Highway Handicap (Class 3, 1600m)

Thomas: FIELD THE MOMENT (14) is the value runner here. She’s close to double figure odds but comes to the Highway off an easy win at Narrandera then a very game effort when second to Toes In The Water at Goulburn. Toes In The Water has added merit to the form by winning a Highway at Rosehill two weeks ago. Field The Moment is down in the weights, drawn well and has each way claims. RAJNISH (3) loomed up to win at Dubbo but faded near the line and ran fourth, beaten only a length. He should be at his peak now after recent racing and is worth another chance. CRANKY HARRY (1) comes off a narrow loss at Doomben and trainer Matt Dunn has the formula to win these races. MAGIC PHAROAH (10) won well at Tamworth but she is a query on a heavy track.

O’Cass: The better the track conditions, the better the chances of MAGIC PHAROAH (10). She finally got a Good track there at Tamworth last start and just roared past them in the straight. She is a Highway winner here at Royal Randwick over the mile but like I say, it all comes down to the track. RAJNISH (3) ran a creditable race in a 1500m Highway at Rosehill Gardens on the Heavy 8 prior to his ‘fair’ fourth at Dubbo. He should get a good run in transit, up handy on the speed. You’re right about how well the in-form FIELD THE MOMENT (14) is weighted here RT!

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Race 4: 3yo+ Midway Benchmark 72 (1600m)

Thomas: DR EVIL (2) is a very good wet-tracker and ran a blinder second-up when he finished fast for third at Canterbury. From 11 starts on heavy tracks, Dr Evil has won three and been placed in another six races. Fitter for two runs from a spell, drawn to get the right run, Nash Rawiller rides and he’s at generous odds. There’s a lot to like about Dr Evil. CHARMING LEGEND (9) might prove to be the best horse in the race. He looked a talent on debut winning easily at the Kensington midweeks and although he has had a month between runs, he’s so highly regarded he will line up as favourite. JUSTELA (10) is an improving mare going to Randwick in winning form after her good last start win at Kembla Grange. PUTT FOR DOUGH (3) is another racing very consistently.

O’Cass: I am banking on your line there RT about CHARMING LEGEND (9) might prove to be the best horse in the race. Just for some background, he was a very admired $550,000 Classic Yearling. He’s by Deep Field who is one of the best there is and I always respect a horse that can win on debut and Charming Legend was rather convincing. RAPT (14) has always been a talented filly. That was an easy win at Scone last start, not at all concerned that it was a Provincial Class 1, she’s Midway-worthy every day of the week. DR EVIL (2), the $4,5000 yearling winner of $411,540 is the ‘been there, done that’ horse in the Midway on Saturday.

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Race 5: 3&4yo Benchmark 78 (1800m)

Thomas: I’MINTOWIN (1) didn’t get the early lead but still ran well last start when fourth to Highlights at Rosehill. I’mintowin looks likely to control the tempo from the front here, run the race to suit and will be plenty of catching. BAKERLOO (4) is an emerging three-year-old filly who is having a great preparation. She’s up against some tough, seasoned horses here but is very fit and her racing pattern suggests she will enjoy getting out to 1800m. DON DIEGO DE VEGA (2) made a very good Australian debut when he closed his race off strongly to finish a close second to Bear On The Loose at Rosehill. Lightly raced by very promising and could blow this field away. AIX EN PROVENCE (9) drops 7.5kg after a tough win at Wyong last start.

O’Cass: DON DIEGO DE VEGA (2) came to Australia with a neat little CV of two wins in France at 1900m and 2000m and a Listed third at Chantilly also over 2000m and that was from just five starts. He was whittling down the margin between himself and Bear On The Loose with every stride there at Rosehill Gardens. I guess it just comes down to whether he is looking for 2000m right away. I have to confess that I thought FORTUNE (3) was bordering on a good thing at his Australian debut at Rosehill Gardens but he was the first horse beaten and beaten a long way from home. Bit early to start sacking imports with his record after just one run.

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Race 6: 3yo+ Fillies and Mares Benchmark 78 (1400m)

Thomas: ZOUPHORIA showed improvement at her third run in when closing off her race strongly to finish third to Anagain at Rosehill. She’s peaking now and gets her chance in an open race. HELLAVADANCER (1) was competitive first-up at Rosehill when fourth to the speedy Kazou, beaten only a length. She will be improved by that run and is advantaged by the inside draw. DEFINING (3) doesn’t know how to run a bad race but finds it hard to win. CAPTAIN AMELIA (10) handles heavy tracks and her form is better than it reads.

O’Cass: Concur big time with that last statement about CAPTAIN AMELIA (10), RT. She has run fifth in a Flight Stakes and Kembla Classic and if it wasn’t for so many bad draws and thus, huge headstarts she has given away, she could easily have won two or three more races. Drawn 11 again but this is Randwick and with it being Heavy, perhaps down the outside isn’t a disadvantage? CROSS THE RUBICON (12) was a very unlucky runner-up in the Provincial / Midway Championship Final over this same track and distance scenario. Can be dodgy at the start but she is always good at the finish. DEFINING (3) is so consistent that she almost ‘must’ go in.

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Race 7: Benchmark 78 (1600m)

Thomas: I don’t think there is a lot between NAILS MURPHY (8) and THE LITTLE PUMPER (5) but the barrier draw favours the former. Nails Murphy has the inside barrier and should get the right run. He won’t need to improve much on his fifth to Franz Josef last start to go close here. The Little Pumper has struck form with a vengeance since the blinkers have gone on and he will take catching again. SAILOR (10) is working up to a win and he does handle heavy tracks. NANA’S WISH (13) ran on from a long way back when just behind the placegetters at Rosehill and she is coming back slightly in trip here. She can settle closer and is worth another chance.

O’Cass: I remember telling anyone who’d listen (and granted that’s a large populous RT) that KING OF FLORIDA (7) was a Gong horse before he made his Australian debut at Rosehill Gardens on June 29. To cut a long story short, it was all over for him when they kicked up on his inside and kept him wide, he made an early-ish run and naturally peaked and faded. You can’t possibly judge him, much less penalise him, for that run. I still hope that we can get into the Soft range for him now. OUR ANCHORAGE (6), the Bjorn Baker-trained Galileo gelding, is building. That was a pretty good run in the Bear On The Loose race second-up. Gee whiz, SPACE AGE (3) was dominant at the Farm.

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Race 8: Benchmark 88 (1400m)

Thomas: BOJANGLES (10) was unlucky at Rosehill behind Kazou. He had five weeks between runs then was held up in the straight before eventually working clear and was doing his best work on the line to finish sixth. Promising three-year-old who has raced without luck at his last two starts and is over the odds here. WAR ETERNAL (3) came from a long way back on the turn and was finishing fast wide out when third to Highlights two weeks ago. War Eternal is racing well and does get through heavy going. TESTATOR SILENS (5) has finished good seconds at 1300m and 1500m at Rosehill in successive starts and should be suited by the Randwick 1400m course. He’s ready to win. RUSSIAN RONI (7) was first-up, raced on speed and battled on very well to finish third in the Kazou race at Rosehill. He will be improved by the run and is a very good lightweight chance.

O’Cass: LORD OF BISCAY (13) is a very-well bred Lope De Vega son bred in Ireland but with an English CV. He won twice in five starts over there at circa 1400m and 1700m. Now an Australian Bloodstock/Kris Lees commodity, Lord Of Biscay has trialled rather well twice and whilst he is a 73 rater in an 88, I doubt his benchmark will be in the 70s for long and of course he gets in with 52kg. If the TAB framed a market for the fastest last 400m or 2000m on the day, I’d be having something on LADY OF LUXURY (9)! Can’t she finish off a race! I just wonder if barrier one has done her any favours?

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Race 9: Benchmark 88 (1800m)

Thomas: ARAMCO (11) was having his first start for the Chris Waller stable and raced without luck when finishing strongly for fifth to Highlights at Rosehill. Aramco won over 2000m twice at Flemington when last win work and he had the “flashing light” on at his recent Rosehill run. AMBERITE (8) scored a tough win over the Rosehill 1800m course last start and will be in this for a long way. BEAR ON THE LOOSE (9) created a big impression at his Australian debut winning at Rosehill. No knock on him except his odds. LORD ARDMORE (2) ran a better race in the McKell Cup and might be working his way back into form.

O’Cass: ARAMCO (11) could win, or at very least be in, good races from here on. He will run a mile to 2000m, in fact 2000m is probably his best distance. He was $9.50 to $15 at that first run for Chris Waller and as you quite rightly said, it was the flashing light run of the race. I thought it was pretty close to the run of the day myself. I like the way UNANIMOUS (13) is tracking now. He handles the Heavy if it stays Heavy of course but my little concern this week is what it was the last time he raced and that is, I think he wants 2000m. If, and note the ‘if’ it was Good, DEFICIT (12) could well have run into a place or even won.

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Race 10: Benchmark 78 (1000m)

Thomas: A tough closer so I’ve gone a little wide with MEMORIA (5). She’s a smart mare resuming and protecting an unbeaten first-up record. She’s trialled well and is nicely weighted after the claim. Memoria is worth a gamble at the odds. SATIN AND SILK (10) is very fast, she’s a 1000m specialist but is untried on a heavy track. DIPSY DOODLE (7) had her chance first-up but is expected to improve.

O’Cass: I don’t want to unduly tarnish ALICIA ROMA (4) as a ‘duffer’ because I may be doing her an injustice given she has a reasonable record on Soft tracks and has only run once on a Heavy track and that was at Ballarat. I still say she is better on Good tracks but I like her so much as a 1000m-horse that she is on top. Expecting SOAMI (1) to fly late.

Originally published as Ray and Shayno’s Turf Talk: $41 top tip at Randwick on Saturday