The Final Word with Ray and Duff
THE Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Channel’s form guru Ron Dufficy discuss the big races at Randwick on Saturday.
THE Derby-Doncaster meeting is always one of the truly great racedays and it will be no different on Saturday despite the likelihood of a very wet surface at Royal Randwick.
The track surface on Friday night was bordering on heavy and Sky Thoroughbred Channel’s form guru Ron Dufficy expects most jockeys to steer away from the inside in the home straight.
“The jockeys will avoid the fence if it is wet,’’ Dufficy said. “I just hope it doesn’t rain on the day as it will turn the track into a minefield.’’
The Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Dufficy discuss the chances in the four Group 1 races on day one of The Championships.
RACE 6: ATC SIRES PRODUCE STAKES (1400m)
MARKET: TAB FIXED ODDS
Thomas: There are only three runners backing up from the Golden Slipper — English, Ready For Victory and Odyssey Moon. They are all definite chances but I’m leaning to the Blue Diamond winner Pride of Dubai. I think he is a top class colt and even better suited at 1400m.
Dufficy: I think Pride of Dubai is a very good colt, too, but the break he has had between runs and striking a wet track on Saturday scares me. I know he has had a barrier trial but it was a questionable one at that. I’m having a throw at the stumps with one at a bit of odds — Rageese. I think he has scope for improvement after his first-up run so I’m looking for him to parade better and I loved his trial since. Ready For Victory ran an outstanding race for fourth in the Golden Slipper and he will be hard to beat on that run. Pride Of Dubai is a quality horse and it was a great Blue Diamond win.
Thomas:Tarquin defeated Rageese last start so how does he rate?
Dufficy: He is not far away in my thoughts as he was very solid at Rosehill but I just felt Rageese had score for more improvement.
RACE 7: BMW AUSTRALIAN DERBY (2400m)
MARKET: TAB FIXED ODDS
Thomas:Preferment is the strongest stayer of this group and proved that winning the Victoria Derby. He showed significant improvement in the Rosehill Guineas and is peaking for this race. He has been placed on a heavy track so he should get through the conditions. Hauraki was absolutely devastating in the Tulloch Stakes last week but he has not wet track form. The two New Zealanders, Volkstok‘n’barrell and Mongolian Khan, are right in this race, too. I think the winner comes from this four, Ronnie.
Dufficy: I agree with you, Ray. I thought on a dry track Preferment was a good thing but even on the wet track, I’m staying with him. He has been trained to the minute by Chris Waller, is hitting form at the right time and he does look the best stayer. His only other win was the Victoria Derby and I feel he is ready to go on Saturday. Volkstok‘n’barrell is the danger. He toughed it out against Preferment in the Rosehill Guineas and was stronger on the line. I’m hearing that trackwork this week was something else and they don’t get beaten when they gallop as well as he did. The wet track is swaying things back to Volkstok‘n’barrell but I’m going to stick with Preferment. I see Ruling Dynasty running a race here. He got too far back last week and was handed an impossible job to do and his fifth was full of merit. He will be much closer in the run from his good draw.
RACE 8: DARLEY T.J. SMITH STAKES (1200m)
MARKET: TAB FIXED ODDS
Thomas: The big three clash in one of the races of the autumn. I find it hard to split Chautauqua and Terravista, they will run the quinella for mine. For the sake of the exercise, Chautauqua just but this race could well be determined by run of the race stuff. Lankan Rupee won this race last year but he is coming off a career-worst run in the Newmarket. Sweet Idea won The Galaxy brilliantly and she does handle wet tracks, but I can’t see her beating the big three.
Dufficy: Super race. I have no firm opinion but I’m leaning to Terravista. I’m not concerned by the wide draw the way this track will play on Saturday. He lacked match practice in the Newmarket and that run will toughen him up. He is untouchable at Randwick and is no problem on a wet track. Chautauqua got too far back in the Newmarket and he is the obvious danger. Lankan Rupee was brilliant in the Lightning Stakes and I’m not potting him on one run. He is back to the scene of one of his greatest wins in the TJ last year. Sweet Idea is a very good mare and always tries so hard but I just can’t have anything beating Terravista, Chautauqua and Lankan Rupee.
RACE 9: THE STAR DONCASTER MILE (1600m)
MARKET: TAB FIXED ODDS
Thomas: Good luck here, Ronnie! Where do you look? Super race with 11 individual Group 1 winners in the 20-horse field and two of the favourites, Kermadec and Sweynesse emergencies, which underlines the quality of the race. To make it even harder, it is race nine on a track that is likely to be badly chopped up late in the day. I always like backing in-form lightweights in these big Randwick miles and I keep coming back to Pornichet. He was brilliant last week over 2000m, drops 4.5kg, and is rock-hard fit for the 1600m. He handles wet tracks so ticks a lot of boxes. I was hoping for better odds than $8 but you can’t have everything. Hallowed Crown loves Randwick and wet tracks, Rudy is a lightweight hope at big odds, Leebaz drops 7kg from last week and is a better chance than his odds suggests, the proven mudlarks Sacred Falls and Royal Descent come right into it now, the Japanese horse Real Impact — I’ve mentioned nearly half the field and may still have missed the winner!
Dufficy: It is that sort of race, Ray. When I see wet tracks I start with Royal Descent. She just catches my eye here. She loves wet tracks and has that man, Joao Moreira, to ride. I thought her run in the George Ryder Stakes was excellent and the Ryder form is so strong.
Thomas: Does the fact she hasn’t won a race for nearly two years concern you?
Dufficy: It does but Moreira makes the difference. He can find that extra half length a horse needs. Royal Descent has had five starts over the Randwick 1600m course for five seconds, mostly in Group 1 races. I really like her chances. I agree with you on Pornichet. The fact he had a run over 2000m last week where he won so impressively and backs up on a wet track in a testing mile is a huge advantage. The market has reacted to that and he is probably under the odds but he is a terrific horse. Then I’m going with the Ryder form. It’s Somewhat was very good on a soft track first-up then was caught off the track in the Ryder, it was a total forgive run. He drops 7kg and has a beautiful draw. I’m not leaving out Real Impact but I don’t like the look of his form on a wet track. I thought he was an absolute certainty on a dry track. I’m hearing Real Impact gets better with racing so he can improve further out of the Ryder. I have no knock on Hallowed Crown and Arabian Gold has amazing figures on a wet track. I like the race — Royal Descent, Pornichet, It’s Somewhat and Real Impact.
Thomas: What about Sacred Falls, Happy Trails and World Ace?
Dufficy:Sacred Falls didn’t do much in the Ryder but he has won the last two Doncasters with the same track conditions. This is his go. Happy Trails is a genuine Group 1 performer and sure to go well again but I just couldn’t find a spot for him. World Ace is a big yard watch. He paraded terribly before the Ryder but if he parades well on Saturday then he is a real player.
DUFF’S SUGGESTED BETS
BEST BET: Sooboog (race 1)
NEXT BET: Disclaimer (race 3)
VALUE RUNNER: Rageese (race 6)
DONCASTER TRIFECTA
Duff: Box trifecta numbers 4,6,10,12,14
Ray: Box trifecta numbers 6,10,14,17,18
Originally published as The Final Word with Ray and Duff
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