The Final Word with Ray and Duff

FIELDS/BETTING: THE Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Sports Radio’s Ron Dufficy discuss the big races on Golden Slipper Day at Rosehill.

Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy

9 min read

March 20, 2015 - 4:00PM

OFF & RACING: Will Gai wear the Golden Slipper this year?

GOLDEN Slipper Day is one of the great racedays anywhere in the world and Saturday’s meeting is as good as any in recent years.

There are five outstanding Group 1 races headed by the $3.5 million Golden Slipper.

Can Gai Waterhouse win a record sixth Golden Slipper with favourite Vancouver? Is it Godolphin’s year with four crack two-year-olds in the field? Of can Team Hawkes go back-to- back with Headwater or Lake Geneva?

The Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Sports Radio’s form guru Ron Dufficy discuss the chances in the Golden Slipper and the other four Group 1 races at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

RACE 4: RANVET STAKES (2000m)

1. CONTRIBUTER (IRE) John O’Shea James McDonald 5 59kg

2. DOMINANT (IRE) John Moore Damien Oliver 3 59kg

3. HE’S YOUR MAN (FR) Chris Waller Blake Shinn 7 59kg

4. FAST DRAGON Bruce Wallace Brenton Avdulla 4 59kg

5. TOSEN STARDOM (JPN) Yasutoshi Ikee Tommy Berry 1 58.5kg

6. SILENT ACHIEVER (NZ) Roger James Kerrin McEvoy 6 57kg

7. LUCIA VALENTINA (NZ) Kris Lees Hugh Bowman 2 57kg

CLICK HERE: TAB FIXED ODDS

Ray Thomas:Contributer has been dominant at weight-for-age this autumn, winning the Apollo Stakes and Chipping Norton Stakes, albeit not by huge margins. He goes to 2000m, which is ideal, and he is the one to beat. He’s Your Man ran on well for third to Contributer last start and he is also effective at 2000m. The two mares, Silent Achiever and Lucia Valentina are ready to produce their best. I should point out that Lucia Valentina has won Group 1 races over 2000m third-up from a spell off unplaced runs at her past two preparations. Ronnie, I’ve left out the internationals, probably at my peril.

He’s Your Man, right, looks well placed at 2000m third-up. Picture: Hamish Blair

Ron Dufficy: A terrific race. I didn’t know what to do here then I found some vision of Tosen Stardom in races and trackwork and he is a serious racehorse, he really impressed me. I’m a little concerned how this race will be run. Tosen Stardom looks a backmarker but if this is a slowly run weight-for-age race they may go forward and keep rolling. I’m not sold on barrier one but I’m happy to be on him. Contributer is flying and he is adaptable enough to go forwards or back. He’s Your Man is beautifully placed here third-up from a spell. He has had an easy trial since his last run. I agree Silent Achiever is ready now and remember last year she went forward early, sat right up on the speed and won this race.

RACE 5: ROSEHILL GUINEAS (2000m)

1. HALLOWED CROWN Bart & James Cummings Hugh Bowman 7 56.5kg

2. PREFERMENT (NZ) Chris Waller Damien Oliver 1 56.5kg

3. MONGOLIAN KHAN Murray Baker Opie Bosson 6 56.5kg

4. SWEYNESSE John O’Shea James McDonald 5 56.5kg

5. HAMPTON COURT Gai Waterhouse Joshua Parr 4 56.5kg

6. VOLKSTOK’N’BARRELL (NZ) Donna Logan Craig Williams 2 56.5kg

7. POUNAMU Allan Denham Glyn Schofield 3 56.5kg

CLICK HERE: TAB FIXED ODDS

Thomas: A small field like the Ranvet Stakes but I’m looking forward to this race. The three-year-old races have been spectacular so far this autumn and Hallowed Crown just keeps winning. You have to admire this colt’s desire but I feel 2000m gives Sweynesse his chance to beat him. Sweynesse has always given the impression the Rosehill Guineas would be his race. The Kiwi three-year-olds Mongolian Khan and Volkstok‘n’barrell are very good and right in this race. You often find when the New Zealand three-year-olds come off their long summer campaigns their best runs in Sydney is their first runs.

Dufficy: This race is Australia versus New Zealand in a sense. I’m tipping Hallowed Crown but I’m very wary of Sweynesse. I think this will come down to the tempo. If Hampton Court rolls along and makes it a genuinely run race, then it will suit Sweynesse. But if this race develops into a sprint home, which I suspect it might, then it’s in Hallowed Crown’s favour. I’m a huge wrap for Mongolian Khan and Volkstok‘n’barrell. They gapped their rivals in the New Zealand Derby and that tells me they are top class young stayers.

Hallowed Crown is unbeaten in two runs this campaign. Can he make it three?

RACE 6: THE GALAXY (1100m)

1. TIGER TEES (NZ) Joseph Pride Glyn Schofield 9 58kg

2. FAMOUS SEAMUS (NZ) Noel Mayfield-Smith SCRATCHED 15 57.5kg

3. MIRACLES OF LIFE Peter & Paul Snowden Hugh Bowman 14 55.5kg

4. SWEET IDEA Gai Waterhouse Blake Shinn 12 55.5kg

5. DEEP FIELD Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes Tommy Berry 17 55kg

6. AVOID LIGHTNING Les Bridge Tim Clark 6 54.5kg

7. KNOYDART John O’Shea James McDonald 2 54.5kg

8. FLAMBERGE Peter G Moody Chad Schofield (late alt) 13 54kg

9. RUBICK Gerald Ryan Kerrin McEvoy 4 53.5kg

10. FAST ’N’ ROCKING David Hayes & Tom Dabernig Dwayne Dunn 8 53.5kg

11. HEART TESTA Chris Waller SCRATCHED 16 53.5kg

12. VA PENSIERO Jason Coyle Jason Collett 11 53.5kg

13. VILLA VERDE Anthony Cummings Brenton Avdulla 1 52.5kg

14. A TIME FOR JULIA Peter G Moody Glen Boss 3 52kg

15e. ATMOSPHERICAL David Pfieffer Craig Williams 7 52kg

16e. CHLOE IN PARIS Ciaron Maher Sam Clipperton 5 52kg

17e. KURO (NZ) Joseph Pride Chad Schofield 10 52kg

CLICK HERE: TAB FIXED ODDS

Thomas: They will fly in this race, Ronnie, it will be another great spectacle. I’m tipping Rubick because he proved last start at Randwick that he can take a sit in a race — he doesn’t have to lead. This is crucial on Saturday because of the likelihood this will be run at a frenetic tempo. Rubick, from his “soft” barrier is going to get the perfect run and this is his chance to win a Group 1 race. Kuro did not have a lot for luck at Randwick first-up but he drops significantly at the weights here. He still needs a couple of scratchings to get into the field but if that happens he is a definite winning chance. I expect they will come out running with Deep Field, now he has the blinkers on and is drawn the outside. We know he is a very talented horse and I think he races best when ridden aggressively.

Dufficy: I agree with you about Rubick. I opposed him first-up in the Challenge Stakes but I was taken by the way he paraded and how well he raced. Everything looks made to order for him on Saturday — the barrier, tempo, distance, and he’s a good price. I have Rubick as bet of the day. Sweet Idea is such an outstanding mare who gives her all every start. The blinkers go on here and she always races well fresh. Miracles Of Life was very impressive first-up at Randwick although everything did go her way. Knoydart is the one who will be charging home. He has won second-up at his last two preparations so there is a pattern emerging for him. I’m interested in what you say about Deep Field as every time he has led he has won. If he parades well I’ll give him another chance but I’m keen on Rubick.

Rubick ticks plenty of boxes in The Galaxy. Picture: Michael Klein

RACE 7: GOLDEN SLIPPER (1200m)

1. VANCOUVER (18) Gai Waterhouse Tommy Berry 56.5kg $2.80

2. HEADWATER (11) Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes Glen Boss 56.5kg $11

3. FURNACES (1) John O’Shea Hugh Bowman 56.5kg $15

4. HAPTIC (3) John O’Shea James Doyle 56.5kg $17

5. EXOSPHERE (10) John O’Shea James McDonald 56.5kg $4.20

6. READY FOR VICTORY (9) Mick Price Nick Hall 56.5kg $11

7. ODYSSEY MOON (13) Rodney Northam Ryan Moore 56.5kg $71

8. ENGLISH (6) Gai Waterhouse Blake Shinn 54.5kg $15

9. REEMAH (15) David Hayes/Tom Dabernig Kerrin McEvoy 54.5kg $35

10. SPEAK FONDLY (12) Gai Waterhouse Damien Oliver 54.5kg $35

11. FIREWORKS (14) Gerald Ryan Brenton Avdulla 54.5kg $51

12. HAYBAH (2) David Hayes/Tom Dabernig Stephen Baster 54.5kg $71

13. OTTOMAN (8) John O’Shea William Buick 54.5kg $26

14. LAKE GENEVA (5) Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes Dwayne Dunn 54.5kg $17

15. SINGLE GAZE (16) Nick Olive Kathy O’Hara 54.5kg $51

16. LOOK TO THE STARS (19) Clarry Conners SCRATCHED54.5kg

17(e). SERENADE (7) Michael Moroney 54.5kg $201

18(e). RACY (4) Gary Portelli 54.5kg $201

19(e). HEAVENLY HAND (17) Gerald Ryan 54.5kg $301

CLICK HERE: TAB FIXED ODDS

Thomas: I know it is easy to pick the favourite, Vancouver, but I do think he is the best horse in the race. Seeing is believing and his Todman Stakes win was quite special. But he is short enough in betting now and the concerns I have is the barrier draw and whether he can back up that Randwick win. What persuaded me to stay with Vancouver was what (jockey) Tommy Berry told me — he said this colt didn’t turn a hair after the Todman Stakes, the run took nothing out of him. Vancouver does have the right attitude, he’s unflappable. It won’t be easy for him coming out of 15 barrier but with any sort of luck in running he can win this race. The danger is Exosphere. He was simply outstanding at Warwick Farm and what I liked about the win was how strong he was late in the race. Headwater is worth another chance. The one-time Slipper favourite produced a stunning gallop at Rosehill on Tuesday and I haven’t forgotten his brilliant Silver Slipper win where he ran stunning sectionals. Lake Geneva, a stablemate of Headwater, is arguably the best filly in the field and I think she can run top four.

Dufficy: After the Todman Stakes I thought there is no way they can beat Vancouver but now I’m not so sure. I also think it is between the two good colts, Vancouver and Exosphere but I’ve ended up going with Exosphere. He has won his last two starts brilliantly and by big margins, which is what I like to see from two-year-olds. His barrier draw is good because he has options from there and he does have the form jockey in Australia in James McDonald to ride him. Vancouver’s rider Tommy Berry is under extreme pressure — does he go forward or back? He will need to make up his mind in the first 50m. If Tommy can find a “back” then Vancouver will be in the finish because it is impossible to win a Golden Slipper if you sit wide without cover. Outside of the top two colts, I also like Lake Geneva as she is all quality. Haptic is a little bit forgotten in the Slipper mix. He is unbeaten in two starts and is a tough, competitive horse.

Tommy Berry will be under pressure to negotiate Vancouver’s wide barrier.

RACE 8: GEORGE RYDER STAKES (1500m)

1. SACRED FALLS (NZ) Chris Waller Damien Oliver 13 59kg

2. CRITERION (NZ) David Hayes & Tom Dabernig Craig Williams 5 59kg

3. WORLD ACE (JPN) Yasutoshi Ikee Nicholas Hall 7 59kg

4. REAL IMPACT (JPN) Noriyuki Hori James McDonald 12 59kg

5. MORIARTY (IRE) Chris Waller Glen Boss 10 59kg

6. WEARY (FR) Chris Waller Dwayne Dunn 9 59kg

7. I’M IMPOSING (GB) Chris Waller Tye Angland 14 59kg

8. HOOKED John P Thompson Hugh Bowman 1 59kg

9. BURBERO (NZ) Bjorn Baker Opie Bosson 2 59kg

10. IT’S SOMEWHAT (USA) John O’Shea William Buick 8 58.5kg

11. COSMIC ENDEAVOUR Gai Waterhouse Tommy Berry 4 57kg

12. ROYAL DESCENT Chris Waller Kerrin McEvoy 6 57kg

13. SHOOTING TO WIN Peter & Paul Snowden Blake Shinn 3 56kg

14. KERMADEC (NZ) Chris Waller Ryan Moore 11 56kg

CLICK HERE: TAB FIXED ODDS

Thomas: I’m very keen on Shooting To Win. There has been merit in both his runs this preparation. At his last start he was just a touch keen when left in front and was beaten less than a length into third behind Hallowed Crown and Sweynesse. Shooting To Win won’t be leading on Saturday but he is drawn to get a gun run just in behind the leaders. His two best runs were in the Stan Fox Stakes and Caulfield Guineas where he came from off the speed and charged home. The other point I’d like to make is that the deeper Shooting To Win goes into a preparation, the better he gets. The blinkers coming off are no issue, either. Cosmic Endeavour is a tough mare in super form. She will probably lead and be very hard to beat. Kermadec is up with Sydney’s best three-year-olds, he was desperately unlucky in the Australian Guineas and he is one of the main chances here.

Dufficy: There is depth galore in this field. I’m with you, Ray, I really like Shooting To Win. He will get the right run tucked in behind Cosmic Endeavour and be ready to pounce in the straight. He was just a little aggressive last time when left in front but the blinkers off and with good speed early, he will settle nicely. The barrier suggests he will get the run of the race and that is the reason I have him on top. The Japanese horses, World Ace and Real Impact are very good. World Ace was competitive in the Hong Kong International Mile behind Able Friend and he also has solid Group 1 form in Japan which says it all. Real Impact is a highly rated horse in Japan and can take up a forward position. James McDonald committed early to this horse so that is a very significant pointer for punters but I’m a bit worried by this hoof issue. Cosmic Endeavour was brutal in the Canterbury Stakes. She led them, ran time and was too tough. She is right at the top of her game and there is no evidence to say she won’t run 1500m. We are just realising how good this mare is. I respect Kermadec and It’s Somewhat.