Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy

BEST BETS: The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy discuss the big races at Randwick and Doomben.

Photographs: Simon Bullard. Race 5 ARROWFIELD 3YO SPRINT (3YO SET WEIGHTS) - 1200m Winner 'Delectation' ridden by Hugh Bowman.

AVOID Lightning will create history, Private Secretary is set to regain winning form, Press Statement can continue his unbeaten run and Werther picks himself.

The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy agree this quartet are set to win their respective races at Royal Randwick and Doomben on Saturday.

Dufficy is also predicting another memorable afternoon for trainer Chris Waller, selecting his horses to win two Group 1 races at Doomben with Delectation in the $2 million Stradbroke Handicap and Press Statement in the $600,000 J.J. Atkins Stakes, and their stablemate Our Voodoo Prince in the Stayers Cup at Royal Randwick.

HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

BEAT THE BOOKIE: VALUE BETS

ROYAL RANDWICK

RACE 5: STAYERS CUP (3200m)

NEWS: TEAM CUMMINGS TINKER WITH PROVEN FORMULA

Thomas: We only get two 3200m races in Sydney each year and I love watching them. In saying that, this Stayers Cup is not a strong race. Our Voodoo Prince is the class runner and looks the one to beat but he hasn’t won for a long time, and will he run the trip under 59kg? I don’t think he is any value at the odds, which sways me to Husson Choice. He ran on well at Canberra last start, drops 5kg here and gives the impression he will stay all day.

Dufficy: I enjoy watching these long distances races but I’m nervous about this race from a punter’s point of view. We have lost the winner in Singing Flame due to injury. Our Voodoo Prince only needs to stay to win. He battled on well at his first try over 2400m last start when third in the McKell Cup last start and that is the best form. Jo Jo Girl is a 2600m winner at Randwick and she is a strong stayer but I would prefer the track a little wetter for her. Planet Purple third-up has some claims. I’m going for Our Voodoo Prince but I have no confidence in the race.

RACE 6: JUNE STAKES (1100m)

NEWS: PARR SET TO STRIKE WITH LIGHTNING

Thomas: If the Stayers Cup lacks depth, how good is the June Stakes. There are nine individual stakes winners in this 14-horse field which underlines how strong the field is. Avoid Lightning has the rain-affected track conditions she enjoys and a soft barrier to ensure she gets the right run. She is the class horse of the field and I feel she can carry the 60kg, set a weight-carrying record and win her second June Stakes. Decision Time trialled enormous the other day in blinkers. I know it has been a long time since he has shown any worthwhile form but he is fit now and at $26 he is a terrific each-way chance. Angels Beach and Cradle Me are quality mares and also big chances.

Avoid Lightning, right, has drawn ideally in the June Stakes. Picture: Simon Bullard

Dufficy: I get your point with Decision Time, I’ve been spruiking him to find some form at his last two starts. He looks well but has lacked match practice. Perhaps the blinkers will work. But I’m tipping Avoid Lightning. I tried to get away from her because of the 60kg but the barrier draw was crucial and she has drawn ideally, and she loves Randwick. She has this brilliant sprint on her and she is two from two over the Randwick 1100m. Her trial win showed she is back from Adelaide in good form. I’m wary of Angels Beach. She is another quality mare and also excels at 1100m. Target In Sight was charging home at Scone and his stablemate See The World is another who will be finishing fast.

RACE 7: MARK MORAN HCP (1200m)

Thomas: I really like Private Secretary in this race, Ronnie. She was brilliant winning her first two runs back, then was beaten by a lack of tempo when sixth Dublin Lass, Aussies Love Sport and Mohave at Randwick. The form out of that race has been outstanding with three placegetters winning since, Dublin Lass and Mohave in stakes grade. Private Secretary then went to Scone and again raced without luck before finishing strongly for sixth, beaten just over two lengths by That’s A Good Idea in a strong Ortensia Stakes at Scone. Back to a benchmark 80 here and suited by the Randwick 1200m. I have Private Secretary as my bet of the day.

PODCAST: THE FRIDAY FILL UP

Dufficy: I agree. Private Secretary hit the line nicely in a stronger race at Scone, and gets in well with the claim here. She is short enough, I don’t know if I’ll charge into the $2.30 they are betting about her but she has to go on top. I’m wary of Alpha Beat. I just feel he is set to sprint well fresh. He hasn’t raced since last November but I liked his two barrier trials. Black Revolver is going really well but he has to have a dry track. Private Secretary picks herself but I’m going to keep a close eye on Alpha Beat and Black Revolver.

RACE 8: EASTER HEART CLINIC HCP (1400m)

Thomas: This is an open race but I felt Transfers was going well enough to win here. She has been a little costly in her three runs back but they have all been solid runs. With Brodie Loy’s 3kg claim she does get in very well at the weights. Electric Power is in career-best form at the moment, Song And Laughter is also in great form and I’m expecting Bouzy Rouge to improve.

Dufficy: Impossible race, Ray, hard to line these mares up. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of speed in this race which worries me. When I see races like this I go looking for horses with inside draws that can save ground because if it is a sprint home and your horse is trapped wide on a limb it is very hard to win. I’ve come back to Sense And Reason from barrier one. She was good first-up at Rosehill then she took on the boys last start so I’m forgiving her that failure. Song And Laughter can put herself on the speed, which will be an advantage here. Electric Power is a classic case of a mare in form, she is in the zone. I can’t deny the dominance of Berrimilla’s win first-up but I don’t like her barrier draw which probably means she will have to go back in this race. Sense And Reason is my tip in a tough race.

Sense And Reason can bounce back in a tough race. Picture: Simon Bullard

DOOMBEN

RACE 6: J.J. ATKINS STAKES (1600m)

Thomas: It’s an ask for Press Statement on the quick back-up, with an interstate trip and going to 1600m but he was very impressive at Rosehill last week and looks a real quality colt. Look To The Stars is an underrated filly and won the Sires well. Blueberry Hill went to the line with Look To The Stars last start and I’m sure she will be in the mix. Counterattack looks like he needs 1600m.

Dufficy: I’m worried about the Brisbane two-year-old lead-up form, there is no X-factor to it. I think this is a Chris Waller trifecta with Press Statement on top. He will need a good ride from Tye Angland but he is a promising colt. The value runner is Feast For Eyes. He was excellent at Canterbury last start over 1500m. It was a bold win and he has barrier one so he can control the speed here. Counterattack has had the perfect preparation. It’s a Waller trifecta with the only other horse I could find is the unknown of Bassett. He has had an unorthodox preparation for the race but the form out of his Caulfield win is very good and you have to respect Peter Moody’s judgment.

RACE 7: QUEENSLAND DERBY (2200m)

Thomas: I was going to tip Master Of Arts in the Derby but with his scratching, I have to rate Werther on top. Werther defeated the older horses in the Eagle Farm Cup last week over the Derby trip, has drawn the inside barrier here and meets his own age at level weights. I think this is his race to lose, Ronnie. High Midnight is a winner and Upham won the Grand Prix well, but I can’t tip against Werther.

Dufficy: There is nowhere else to turn here bar Werther. He ticks all the boxes. He’s got a beautiful draw, can race on the speed, and he has a very good sprint. He rattled home in 33s-plus last 600m last week. At he only other Australian start it took Delicacy to beat him in the SA Derby. He is very likable. Sadler’s Lake was softened up last start and can improve. Spur On Gold has form around Master Of Arts and Pat Carey is a very good trainer of stayers.

Werther ticks all the boxes in the Queensland Derby.

RACE 8: STRADBROKE HCP (1350m)

NEWS: LET’S HEAR IT FOR THE BOY

NEWS/ANALYSIS: O’SHEA BULLISH ABOUT DYNAMIC DUO

Thomas: If the Derby looks relatively clear-cut, how open is this Stradbroke? In a race of many chances, I’m going wide here with Big Money. He hasn’t been suited at weight-for-age in his recent starts but still managed a very good sixth in the BTC Cup then in the Doomben 10,000 last start, he had no luck. Big Money was going to be in the finish when he was stopped in his tracks in the straight. He went to the line untested. At $26 Big Money is very good each-way value. Lumosty, Knoydart and Srikandi are among the other chances in a really tough Stradbroke.

Dufficy: I can’t knock you, there. However, I have some doubts about the Doomben 10,000 form and I like Delectation. Delectation comes out of a very fast race last start and his closing sectionals were outstanding under 59kg. I know this horse is a problem child but Chris Waller seems to know how to get this three-year-old up for the big day. He did it last spring when second to Brazen Beau in the Coolmore Stud Stakes and again in the autumn when he won the Arrowfield Stud Stakes. If Delectation gets any cover, relaxes for just 400m, he can beat this field because of his acceleration. Charlie Boy is flying now he is a gelding, Knoydart maps well from the good drawer, and Boban is the forgotten horse who goes better second-up. I’m quite keen on Delectation.

DUFF’S SUGGESTED BETS

ROYAL RANDWICK

Best Bet

Race 1, No. 2 — HOLLER: He’s too short but will win.

Best Value

Race 2, No. 4 — LIBERTY ISLAND: I liked his last-start win.

Race 3, No. 8 — PAJARO: His was the best run out of that strong Ortensia Stakes at Scone.

DOOMBEN

Best Bet

Race 8, No. 16 — DELECTATION: Chris Waller seems to know how to get this three-year-old for the big day.

Best Value

Race 5, No. 8 — AWESOME ROCK: There was no fluke about his second-up run.

Originally published as Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy