Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy
BEST BETS: THE Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy discuss the main chances at Randwick and Gold Coast on Saturday.
ALEGRIA and Magic Hurricane can continue their good recent form while the Allan Denham-trained duo of Mount Nebo and Aroused will appreciate the heavy track conditions at Royal Randwick today.
The Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy have waded through the form trying to find the proven mudlarks for Royal Randwick on Saturday.
At the Gold Coast, the final Group 1 race of the season, the Tatt’s Tiara has attracted a top field of mares with Srikandi, Avoid Lightning and Catkins set to fight out a thrilling finish.
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ROYAL RANDWICK
RACE 5: ATC HERITAGE SOCIETY HCP (1400m)
Thomas: Alegria won nicely first-up on a heavy tack but had no luck last start where she obviously should have won. I think she is a talented filly and can bounce back on Saturday. Tree Of Jesse is unbeaten in two starts on heavy tracks and is better suited in this grade and back to 1400m. Berry Delicious is racing very consistently but keeps finding one better than her on the day.
Dufficy: I agree with you and Alegria although I am a little wary of the speed in this race. I’d be even more comfortable if there was a genuine tempo but obviously she was very unlucky last start and her defeat was forgivable as nothing went right. Although she has a few little hurdles to overcome as she has had three weeks between runs and this is a testing track but if she gets enough favours in the run I feel she has more ability than the rest in this race. She is good odds at $6, too. Kipling is a chance at big odds. He is on the quick back-up and that sort of race fitness is like gold on a heavy track. Tree Of Jesse has great Randwick heavy track form and for that reason she gets a big tick from me. I’m with Alegria and I’ll be saving on Kipling.
RACE 6: WINTER DASH (1200m)
Thomas: With Zaratone in the Winter Dash we know this race will be run at a solid speed. But a wet track and 1200m it will really test his stamina reserves. He will be in front for a long way but will be on empty in the last 100m and I can see him getting swamped late. I keep coming back to Wouldnt It Be Nice as he will appreciate the speed on upfront and he is a great wet-track horse at Randwick, a point you raised about Tree Of Jesse, Ronnie. Wouldnt It Be Nice did run down Avoid Lightning last start and that is terrific form. Alias is fitter for two runs from a spell, his last-start effort was encouraging and he has superior wet track form.
Dufficy: I’m with Mount Nebo here. I know he has had a five-week freshen up but he loves it wet, with 50 per cent of his wins coming on heavy tracks. He is in on the limit and maps beautifully from his draw. I have to go his way from Wouldnt It Be Nice. He was a surprise winner last start when he did get all the favours with the track bias but he is an absolute swimmer and he loves Randwick. The stablemates Alias and See The World have chances but I am predominantly with Mount Nebo.
RACE 7: TAB REWARDS HCP (1000m)
Thomas: I found this race very tough but I’m gambling on Cosmic Cameo each way. He won well at Hawkesbury then was unlucky to bump into the smart Felines at that track last start. He is very fit and is a specialist 1000m sprinter. There are excuses for his only previous heavy track run when he ran unplaced at Warwick Farm earlier this campaign. One Direction was in the market first-up at Scone but was very disappointing. Freshened since and can improve sharply here. Rose Of Man is underrated and Bonete did beat Najoom on a heavy surface three starts back. She found the firm track at Doomben against her last start.
Dufficy: Wide race and I know he has a lot of weight but I’m with Aroused. I have Allan Denham training successive winners with Mount Nebo into Aroused. This horse is a real swimmer. He had a trial at Gosford before resuming and it was on a “heavy 11’’ but I’ve never seen a better trial. He resumed at Scone and was off the track and chasing the whole way. He has been freshened since and with the wet track, I’m all over him. Bonete’s form says it all as she defeated Najoom on a heavy track at Canterbury. She has track conditions to suit here. Miss Alibi is a very good long shot. She was good at Gosford first-up and I can see so much speed in this race she will be the one finishing fast late.
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RACE 8: RANVET HCP (1600m)
Thomas: Magic Hurricane was as huge street corner tip prior to his Australian debut and despite some reservations from John O’Shea about the horse first-up at 1400m he was able to win impressively. He will appreciate getting out to 1600m but he has never been on a heavy track. I’m banking on his class getting him home. The Godolphin stable has indicated this will be a his last run before a freshen up and a spring campaign so if this horse is going to measure up in some better races in coming months he should win this. The Gai Waterhouse-trained duo of Role Model and Pajaro are the dangers. Vergara did beat Role Model last start and she enjoys wet tracks.
Dufficy: I concede Magic Hurricane is a great chance. I think Keep Cool is the best longshot of the day. He is $21 and was OK last week making ground late. I love horses on the quick back-up in these heavy conditions, he is having his fourth run back form a spell, handles the wet and getting up in distance so there are a lot of ticks for him. I want to be with him at the odds. Magic Hurricane will be hard to beat but he has never been on a heavy track. Georgey Aeroplane was good first-up and has excellent wet track form. Casino Dancer is 50/1 but has Randwick heavy form and she wasn’t suited by a very slowly run Hawkesbury Cup last start. I could easily have something on her.
GOLD COAST
RACE 7: TATT’S TIARA (1400m)
Thomas: What a great field for the final Group 1 of the season but isn’t it a shame that Najoom looks like she might miss a run. Surely something has to be done as she is one of the favourites and a stakeswinner at her last two starts.
Dufficy: No doubt these anomalies have to be fixed. The Gai Waterhouse stable has been affected a couple of times this Brisbane carnival. It is silly that Najoom is not in the field.
Thomas: If Najoom does get a run she is right in the mix. With the expected heavy track conditions I like Avoid Lightning and Catkins. Avoid Lightning gets her to break through at Group 1 level here. She will get the right run from her soft draw and the Gold Coast circuit suits her racing style. Catkins wasn’t quite at her best at Doomben last start but it was her first run in over a month so I expect her to take improvement from that run. She is well placed under the set weights conditions of this race. Srikandi is awkwardly drawn but she was brilliant in the Stradbroke.
Dufficy: I like Srikandi. She has the right formlines and I’m not too concerned about the draw as I feel she can get across from out wide. There is no designated leader in this field and the way she bounded out in the Stradbroke tells me she can cross this field early. She has won her only two starts at the Gold Coast, is unbeaten in two starts on the heavy so she is ticking all the boxes for me now she is back in form. I’m expecting a dramatic improvement from Lumosty as nothing went right for her in the Stradbroke. I remember her winning a maiden by nine lengths in the wet and she looked a real mudlark. Catkins was stranded in front last start and she is peaking for the big day. Avoid Lightning is a good chance but she has to run 1400m. She has the right gate and the tight track helps. Real Surreal is massively over the odds.
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RACE 8: TATT’S 150TH ANNIVERSARY STAKES (1200m)
Thomas: Kaepernick is well found in the market now but he is a promising young horse. His effort at Doomben last start was very good considering the bias against horses back in the field that day. He needs luck around the Gold Coast track but he does have a powerful finishing sprint. Into The Red and Target In Sight will run well.
Dufficy: I have the Sydney sprinters fighting this out — Dothraki, Target In Sight and Kaepernick. I like Dothraki. He was solid at Scone first-up in a strong form race. The Snowden stable has taken him back to the trials and he’s nice and fresh for Saturday. With the jar out of the track, Target In Sight gets his chance here. Target In Sight is the danger. He was very good considering the circumstances at Randwick, he was the one horse to make up ground in that race. Kaepernick looks a progressive horse but needs luck coming from back in the field on this track. Territory is a chance at odds.
DUFF’S SUGGESTED BETS
ROYAL RANDWICK
Best Bets
Race 4, No. 4: Sense And Reason
Race 6, No. 8: Mount Nebo
Race 7, No. 1: Aroused
Best Value
Race 8, No. 2: Keep Cool
GOLD COAST
Race 7, No. 1: Srikandi
Race 8, No. 3: Dothraki
Originally published as Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy
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