Raceday Preview: Doomben

BEST BETS: THE Queensland winter carnival reaches its grand final on Saturday with the Stradbroke headlining a massive three Group 1s at Doomben.

Photographer: Simon Bullard. Race 4 ASCEND SALES TROPHIES EMANCIPATION STAKES (3YO&UP F&M) - 1500m. Winner 'Catkins' ridden by James McDonald.

THE Queensland winter carnival reaches its grand final this weekend with the Stradbroke headlining a massive three Group 1s at Doomben. The rail is out the 0.5m the entire course and the track should be a good 3.

RACE 1: LISTED HINKLER HANDICAP (1200m)

KAEPERNICK is all the early rage and I guess we will find out this weekend how good he is. Most punters were of the opinion if he goes straight last weekend at Rosehill he wins but I’m not sure he is over the line here. He has drawn a touch awkwardly and he is actually one of the worst weighted horses at Doomben today. On the rating scale, he should be getting 6.5kg and 9.5kg off WHISKEY ALLROUND and INTO THE RED respectively but meets the former on level weights and the latter just 2kg better. At the short price, I’m happy to back around him and WHISKEY ALLROUND looks a good each-way bet for mine. No doubting his form has been mixed this prep but the good thing about him is that he should get a pretty cheap lead here. He normally races his best on firm tracks when he gets an easy lead and that could eventuate here. INTO THE RED looks the hardest to beat and he generally improves second up. He got all the favours when he scooted home along the fence to win the Ascot Handicap (1200m) first-up when the race was run to suit but he has drawn ideally and should take some beating again. While I think he is unders, I still have a healthy respect for KAEPERNICK and Team Hawkes wouldn’t be bringing him up here unless he was going really well. EXCELLANTES, CUM DIVIDEND and THUMP look the other main chances.

Speed map: Tipping WHISKEY ALLROUND to get a pretty cheap lead here with EXCELLANTES and THUMP settling in the next two. INTO THE RED should be midfield, while KAEPERNICK should be just behind him but needs luck early.

Selections: 3. Into The Red, 8. Whiskey Allround, 12. Kaepernick, 3. Into The Red.

Suggested bet: Back WHISKEY ALLROUND each-way @ $10.

RACE 2: LISTED LANCASTER STAKES (1200m)

I don’t like declaring horses but FLIPPANT looks a good thing here. The price is nothing fancy but she beat her main rival in the market, HARLEM RIVER by 2 ¼ lengths at Scone last start. Yes, it was HARLEM RIVER’S first start and she has the blinkers on here so should improve but FLIPPANT was eased down that day and could have won by further if she wanted. She is going to lob in the perfect spot, the Peter and Paul Snowden stable is flying and she should just be too good. HARLEM RIVER looks the danger if there is one and horses can often find a few lengths at their second career starts. Drawn a touch awkwardly though so she will need a lot to go her way. MADOTTI is a hard horse to catch but at her best will be finishing off strongly, while FREQUENDLY should lead them up and stick on OK late. Keen on FLIPPANT though.

Speed map: Expecting FREQUENDLY to lead again here and the favourite FLIPPANT can either sit outside her or take a sit. Others to go forward should be ROXY RHYTHM and CERTAIN ELLIE and the speed looks solid. MADOTTI will be midfield, while HARLEM RIVER might have to go back in the second half of the field from the awkward gate.

Selections: 3. Flippant, 6. Harlem River, 2. Madotti, 1. Frequently.

Suggested bet: FLIPPANT win.

RACE 3: LISTED WAYNE WILSON MILE (1600m)

First of all I will start by saying how great it is we have a race named after the late race caller Wayne Wilson. It’s been a year since Wayne lost his battle with cancer and he not only was a great caller but he loved Queensland racing and was just an all-round good bloke. I’m sure he will be watching this race and the rest of Stradbroke day from above this weekend.

Hard to go past STRAWBERRY BOY and he beat a similar field home by 2 ½ lengths over this track and distance two weeks ago. He almost lined up in the Stradbroke and you get the feeling the decision to take the easier option will be rewarded. He should lead again and prove hard to catch. FRESPANOL looks the obvious danger and his win was a lot better than it looked at Doomben last weekend. He got back in a slowly run race and he clocked 33.03 seconds for his last 600m and 11.14 secs for his last 200m split and that’s good going. Draws a better gate here and he should be able to settle a bit closer. LUCKY LAGO keeps running well but he hasn’t won since September 29, 2013 so I prefer him as a place chance. FLAMINGO STAR is the other one who must be considered and his run in the Doomben 10,000 was fair. Should improve here but I just wonder if he is one of these international horses that needs a prep in Australia before he shows his best.

Speed map: STRAWBERRY BOY and ANY DAY WILL DO should settle in the first two here with GRAYSON SQUARE sitting just behind them. FRESPANOL should be midfield, while LUCKY LAGO will probably be in the next line.

Selections: 1- Strawberry Boy, 4 Frespanol, 11 Lucky Lago, 3- Flamingo Star.

Suggested bet: Not a lot of value with the top selections so work around 1, 4 and 11 for quinellas and trifectas.

Strawberry Boy, left, will be hard to hold out. Picture: Michael Klein

RACE 4: GROUP 2 DANE RIPPER STAKES (1350m)

Good race here for the fillies and mares and it’s hard to go past CATKINS following the scratching of LUMOSTY. She is the class runner of the race and I can tell you Chris Waller is really happy with her progression this prep. You can really tell he wants to win a Group 1 so bad with the popular mare and that’s why he has decided to go to this race instead of the Stradbroke and he feels this is the best path towards the Tattersall’s Tiara in two weeks. She is a five-time Group 2 winner and has been placed in Group 1 company five times before as well. Outside of her, ROSE OF CHOICE could be the big improver and the blinkers go back on the mare here. Yes, she was a bit disappointing first-up at Scone but she has had a stop-start prep due to wet tracks and abandon meetings and you have to remember she was first-up over 1400m so she was entitled to tire late. BRING ME THE MAID and PERON look next best.

Speed map: Not sure what they do with HAZARD but she could push forward and try to lead or sit outside TARLOSHAN. CATKINS won’t be far away, while PERON and ROSE OF CHOICE should both be midfield.

Selections: 1. Catkins, 10. Rose Of Choice, 4. Bring Me The Maid.

Suggested bet: Value with ROSE OF CHOICE here but more the place.

RACE 5: GROUP 2 QUEENSLAND GUINEAS (1600m)

This looks an absolute lottery and it’s about the only race on the card that I’m not keen to have a bet in. There are about 10 genuine chances but a lot of these are a risk at the mile. One of those is probably MISS COVER GIRL and whether she can run a strong mile or not remains to be seen. She should get the perfect run though she did beat all bar Najoom home in the Fred Best Classic. ULMANN is probably the safe bet and he beat all bar subsequent Queensland Oaks winner Winx home in the Sunshine Coast Guineas last start. He is proven at the mile and should be around the mark. GOOD PROJECT put in one of the runs of the weekend at Doomben last Saturday and if he drew a gate here I would be keen to back him. Can win but needs luck early and the quick rise from 1200m to 1600m is not ideal either. HIJACK HUSSY broke 11 seconds for her last 200m last start in the Fred Best Classic and the step up to the mile could really suit her. She will get back to near last though and that’s always a concern around Doomben. TRAVESTON GIRL would win this at her best but has been disappointing lately, while TREE OF JESSE, AWESOME ROCK, MERION, TIME FOR WAR, SURE AND FAST and even JABALI have each-way claims.

Speed map: Speed should be solid here with TRAVESTON GIRL and TIME FOR WAR likely to share the lead. TREE OF JESSE should push forward but will need luck early, while MISS COVER GIRL and MERION should both settle midfield. AWESOME ROCK and HIJACK HUSSY should get back and not sure what they do with GOOD PROJECT.

Selections: 11- Miss Cover Girl, 17- Ulmann, 6- Good Project, 13- Hijack Hussy.

Suggested bet: Want nothing to do with this race. Lottery!

RACE 6: GROUP 1 JJ ATKINS (1600m)

First of the Group 1s here with the JJ Atkins for the two-year-olds. Another pretty open race and five or six of these could salute quite easily. Going with the local in BLUEBERRY HILL and she is due for a change of luck. She was stiff not to win the Ken Russell Memorial Classic (1200m) three starts back and then she has finished first and second at her past two starts despite sitting three-wide without cover throughout on both occasions. The mile shouldn’t concern her and she just keeps turning up and running well. Chris Waller has a massive rap on PRESS STATEMENT and it would be foolish to knock his judgment. The horse is two from two and won well last start but he will need luck early from the wide gate. He is obviously untapped but I do wonder whether this may come too soon for him. It’s a similar story for COUNTERATTACK who seems to be finding trouble in her races and she may be another one who will be better in six months. I actually think FEAST FOR EYES could well be Waller’s best chance in this race and he is the only horse in the race that is proven at this trip. He has drawn ideally and can give plenty of cheek. Other chances to BASSETT, who burnt the candle at both ends on debut but is up 500m in trip here, LOOK TO THE STARS, who got the cash at $21 for us two weeks ago but may not see out the mile, and CYLINDER BEACH, who flashed home with the blinkers on in the Sires’ Produce Stakes. The race was run to suit him that day though but the mile won’t worry him.

Speed map: Expecting BASSETT to lead here and I’m guessing PRESS STATEMENT pushing on from the wide gate? FEAST FOR EYES should be in the first few, while BLUEBERRY HILL should settle just worse than midfield. CYLINDER BEACH and SAGARONNE will both get back.

Selections: 8- Blueberry Hill, 5 Feast For Eyes, 2- Press Statement, 4- Cylinder Beach.

Suggested bet: Good value with FEAST FOR EYES e/w.

Blueberry Hill, right, can win for the locals. Picture: Jono Searle

RACE 7: GROUP 1 QUEENSLAND DERBY (2200m)

Well, you don’t have to be a genius to work out WERTHER is the one to beat here. He went up against some old, tough stayers in the Eagle Farm Cup (2200m) at Doomben last weekend and he gave them a flogging. He clearly rates better than any runner in this race and does look hard to beat. I will back him and I will also have a bet on HARRY each-way at big odds. If you look at his form you would probably think he has no hope but he actually posted the quickest last 200m sectional in the Grand Prix Stakes last start. He was always well back that day and never got into the race but he should be able to settle closer from the good draw here and he will eat up the 2200m. MAGICOOL looks next best and his ratings measure up good for a race like this. UPHAM could well be the forgotten runner and he did beat most of these when winning the Grand Prix Stakes (2020m) last start. SPUR ON GOLD is a good chance for the multiples at big odds and he would be a winning chance if the race was at Eagle Farm. I just think he might struggle around Doomben a bit and he does hit a flat spot in his races. SADLER’S LAKE, REDOUTABLE HEART and WORTHY CAUSE won’t be far away.

Speed map: Tipping SADLER’S LAKE to go forward from the wide gate but it wouldn’t surprise me if they went back instead. UPHAM and MAGICOOL should both push forward, while WERTHER should box seat. WORTHY CAUSE should be midfield, while HARRY should be able to settle down about three pairs from the rear. SPUR ON GOLD will go back.

Selections: 1- Werther, 18- Harry, 5- Magicool, 2- Upham.

Suggested bets: WERTHER win, HARRY each-way @ $31.

RACE 8: GROUP 1 STRADBROKE HANDICAP (1350m)

It’s been a whirlwind week for LUMOSTY’S connections but she is in the field and you would imagine she will be hard to beat as well. Her two wins in Melbourne have been dominant this campaign and while this is tougher her sectionals suggest she is right up to it. She isn’t over the line by any means though and there are a couple of major concerns with her. First is Doomben and whether she will handle the tight turning track and second is racing in the clockwise direction for the first time. A lot of Victorian horses get on the wrong leg in their first race in the reverse direction and that could be a concern. Throw in the awkward barrier and she is no good thing. CHARLIE BOY could well represent better value and he is one of the best weighted horses in the field. He drops 5kg on his close second in the Doomben 10,000 and he should get all the favours from barrier seven. He seems to have gone to another level this prep since being gelded and there isn’t a lot of negatives. SACRED STAR could be the big improver and you could tell he needed the run first-up in the Doomben 10,000. He is a two-time Group 1 winner and is a big threat. Other chances to DELECTATION, who has a sense of timing about him, and GENERALIFE and BLACK HEART BART, who will both flash home late and can finish in the multiples.

Speed map: The scratching of Lord Of The Sky takes some pace out of the race this year but the pace should still be genuine enough. Expect FONTELINA, HOT SNITZEL, SRIKANDI and TEMPLE OF BOOM to settle in the first four. SACRED STAR and CHARLIE BOY should both settle midfield, while LUMOSTY needs luck from the wide draw and could get caught three deep. GENERALIFE and BLACK HEART BACK will probably both get back.

Selections: 8- Charlie Boy, 17- Lumosty, 3- Sacred Star, 16- Delectation.

Suggested bet: CHARLIE BOY each-way.

RACE 9: GROUP 2 BRISBANE CUP (2200m)

I never get too excited by these staying races but the money for LET’S MAKE A DEAL has been pretty strong. The win in Adelaide last start over 2000m was good and she did finish third in the Herbert Power Stakes last spring. The danger appears to be INDEX LINKED and by all reports he has been training the house down on the Gold Coast. Won the Caloundra Cup last start and should take some beating again. Other chances to EPINGLE, VILANOVA, who was a bit stiff not to be in the finish last start, and even VOLKHERE, who is at a massive price for a horse who simply was taken on in front in the Caloundra Cup and was always going to tire.

Speed map: Expect VOLKHERE to lead them up here, while LUCCIOLA. LANDLOCKED, MORIARTY and EPINGLE won’t be far away. INDEX LINKED should settle about midfield and LET’S MAKE A DEAL should be just worse than midfield.

Selections: 4- Let’s Make A Deal, 2- Index Linked, 11- Volkhere, 8- Vilanova.

Suggested bet: LET’S MAKE A DEAL win, VOLKHERE place.

BEST BET: Race 2 no. 3 Flippant.

BEST EACH-WAY: Race 8 no. 8 Charlie Boy.

BEST VALUE: Race 1 no. 8 Whiskey Allround.

BEST ROUGHIE: Race 7 no. 18 Harry.

QUADDIE:

1st leg: 1, 2, 5, 8.

2nd leg: 1, 5, 18.

3rd leg: 2, 3, 8, 16, 17.

4th leg: 2, 4, 8, 11.

$24 for 10%.

Originally published as Raceday Preview: Doomben