Doomben preview: Gold Coast Bulletin’s Brad Davidson takes an in-depth look at Doomben Cup Day
THE Queensland winter carnival kicks into full swing on Saturday with a cracking nine-race card at Doomben, headlined by the BTC Cup and Doomben Cup.
THE Queensland winter carnival kicks into full swing this weekend with a cracking nine-race card at Doomben, headlined by the big Group 1s, the BTC Cup and Doomben Cup.
Every race on the card is a stakes race and the meeting is shaping as the day where the contenders will be separated from the pretenders when it comes to some even bigger races later in the carnival.
The rail is in the true position and the track should be a Good 3.
RACE 1
Listed Princess Stakes (2000m)
The Queensland Oaks picture is set to become a bit clearer after the three-year-old fillies clash in the opener. BALLET SUITE on paper has a class edge on these and she flashed home to run fourth in the Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m) before she was never on the track when a distant eighth in the ATC Oaks (2400m). Freshened for this (28 days) and she tuned up with a sharp second in a Warwick Farm trial earlier this week, where she was never asked to do much. The main concern is she gets back and there doesn’t seem to be a lot of speed in this race. She does have a turn of foot though and watch for her late. Outside of BALLET SUITE, I feel there are three other genuine winning chances — NO TRICKS, COL ‘N’ LIL and IMPERIAL LASS. The latter two come out of the Gold Coast Bracelet a fortnight ago and COL ‘N’ LIL had the quickest last 600m, 400m and 200m splits that day. The step up to 2000m looks ideal but the concern is gate 10. She will probably push forward and sit outside BOHEMIAN LILY and if she gets across easy enough then she is a huge chance. IMPERIAL LASS was never a winning chance in the GC Bracelet but I liked the way she attacked the line late. She should be able to settle closer from the good draw this weekend and she could be the big improver at odds. It’s hard to line up Kiwi filly NO TRICKS, but she was a good Listed winner over 2000m at Riccarton (New Zealand) on April 18. She did have the run of the race that day but she was only beaten three lengths behind subsequent Rosehill Guineas winner VOLKSTOK’N’BARRELL in a Group 2 mile race in New Zealand in January. She has finished in the top four at her five runs and just needs a touch of luck from the wide draw to give this a shake. Taking on BOHEMIAN LILY, who I have a query on at 2000m. She had everything to suit at the Gold Coast the other day and she wasn’t impressive in her only run at this trip in the past. By all reports she is working the house down but she is under the odds for mine. GLORIOUS RED is also a tough little filly who could add value to the multiples.
Speed map: Not an easy race to map. BOHEMIAN LILY should lead and I just hope COL ‘N’ LIL has enough speed to sit outside her. GLORIOUS RED should settle in the box seat, while I’m not sure whether they go forward or back on NO TRICKS. IMPERIAL LASS and BALLET SUITE should both be midfield or a tad worse.
Selections: 2 Ballet Suite, 4 Col ‘N’ Lil, 10 Imperial Lass, 5 No Tricks.
Suggested bet: Ballet Suite hard to beat but happy to back Imperial Lass EACH-WAY.
RACE 2
Group 3 Rough Habit Plate (2000m)
The three-year-old colts line up here on the way to the Queensland Derby. I didn’t mind the run of UPHAM in the Gunsynd Classic (1800m) at the Gold Coast a fortnight ago. He was the best on-pace runner in what was a fast run race and I like the way he stuck on late. He gets the blinkers on here and should settle in the first few. Stablemate INAUGURATION was beaten eight lengths in the Gunsynd Classic last start but he was trapped three deep throughout in a race where they did go pretty hard. His form before that was good and he is worth another chance. My only concern is whether he is just a wet tracker and I guess we will find that out here. SADLER’S LAKE was no match for Swift Lady in a benchmark 70 (1600m) at Randwick last start on a heavy track but he did beat the rest pretty easily. He will push forward and settle on the speed and he has a real feel about him up to the 2000m. There has been early money for him as well and that’s always a good sign. JUMBO PRINCE took a while to warm up in the Toowoomba Guineas last weekend and trainer Michael Nolan did say after the run that the quick back up to 2000m wasn’t ideal. Can win again but he is short enough. GID UP STROP’S run at the Gold Coast was too bad to be true and his form before that was good. FUSINA was in a similar boat, while CHILLIN’ WITH DYLAN hasn’t done a lot wrong and is probably a touch underrated.
Speed map: ROCKLEIGH led them up over 1400m and you would think he could lead this on his ear if he wanted to. SADLER’S LAKE and UPHAM should both push forward, while INAUGURATION and CHLLIN’ WITH DYLAN should settle midfield and GID UP STROP will probably get back.
Selections: 3 Sadler’s Lake, 7 Upham, 6 Inauguration, 5 Chillin’ With Dylan
Suggested bet: Sadler’s Lake WIN.
RACE 3
Listed Juanmo Stakes (1200m)
Cracking race for the fillies and mares here and this could well be a strong form race heading forward. Queenslander TRAVESTON GIRL was pretty good when wide throughout first-up in the Gold Coast Guineas and she will get the gun run on the speed here. She always improves with a run under her belt and I doubt they will go that hard here. MIHIRI could be the danger and she has been freshened since finishing a close seventh in the Group 3 Winona Girl (1200m) at Randwick some 63 days ago. She ran a slashing third to Catkins in the Group 3 Breeders Classic (1200m) in February and if she can reproduce that performance she will be very hard to beat. Barrier 10 is the concern though and she may give them a start in what is likely to be a slowly run race. I’ve got DUBLIN LASS and I’VE GOT THE LOOKS as equal third top raters, the latter was an easy winner in the Listed Silk Stocking (1200m) at the Gold Coast a fortnight ago. The obvious concern for her is the 4kg weight rise to 58.5kg and while she has won with 59kg before the big weight may take its toll in the last 200m against this field. She has drawn to box seat here though and she normally improves second up. DUBLIN LASS could not have been more impressive in a benchmark 85 (1200m) first-up at Randwick on April 18. She didn’t win by far but the victory was better than it looked because they absolutely walked and she was back ninth but still beat them. Up in class here but she is on the up and will be running on well late. SHE’S CLEAN is a classy mare on her day and can often put in a big run fresh. She will probably have to go right back from the wide draw though and she will need to be very good. There has been early support for her as well.
Speed map: Expect TRAVESTON GIRL to lead with SARISARA sitting on her outside. I’VE GOT THE LOOKS and ESPIRITU should box seat, while DUBLIN LASS should be in the next pair. MIHIRI will need luck to slot in midfield and could get stuck out three wide.
Selections: 11 Traveston Girl, 8 Mihiri, 5 Dublin Lass, 1 I’ve Got The Looks
Suggested bet: Really intriguing race. No real value though.
RACE 4
Listed Members’ Handicap (1600m)
Nice little stakes race over the mile and I love the sense of timing about EPIC. He has had three runs back from a spell and put the writing on the wall with a nice fifth behind Neo in the Prime Minister’s Cup last time out. He won fourth up at the mile last prep, has drawn well in gate five and he has won five from nine at this trip. He ticks a lot of boxes for a horse at double figure odds. LASER HAWK looks the obvious danger and he has a class edge on this field. Can be a hard horse to catch but if he produces his best than not even the 60kg is likely to stop him. There’s no reason ANY DAY WILL DO can’t run a cheeky race here and she will get a pretty easy lead. Finished just 3½ lengths off Catkins in the Emancipation Stakes three starts back and then just missed next start in a midweek race at Warwick Farm. Was disappointing last start but just the tempo of the race gives her a hope. NEO was a good winner of the Prime Minister’s Cup last start but will he be as strong at the mile? I have a query on his credentials at the mile and he does meet EPIC 2.5kg worse off at the weights for a two-length margin last time out. BODEGA NEGRA probably recorded his best performance on a dry track in the PM’S Cup and he really flashed home late. The factor in his favour is that he has a turn of foot and while he probably prefers it wet, he has drawn ideally. Other chances are TRAKSTAR, BEWHATYOUWANNABE, BALIGARI and TORNADO MISS.
Speed map: ANY DAY WILL DO should get an easy lead, with TORNADO MISS and NEO also pushing forward early. BODEGA NEGRA, EPIC and BEWHATYOUWANNABE won’t be far away. Speed only looks fair.
Selections: 3 Epic, 1 Laser Hawk, 11 Bewhatyouwannabe, 2 Neo.
Suggested bet: Epic EACH-WAY @ $14.
RACE 5
Group 2 Champagne Classic (1200m)
Cracking race for the two-year-olds and it’s hard to rule a lot of these out. I’ve been waiting for MADOTTI to draw a barrier and I feel she is right in this at juicy odds. You could make a case to say she should have won her past two starts, the Magic Millions 2YO Classic in January (fourth when wide throughout) and then she broke 11 seconds (10.96) for her last 200m when flashing home from the tail to run fifth in the Ken Russell Memorial Classic (1200m) first-up. She had to go right back from the wide draw on that occasion and she was never a hope when they walked in front. There’s plenty of speed in this race and from barrier six she should be able to park midfield, and she will run on strongly late. I have huge respect for COUNTERATTACK and SEMPRE LIBERA and both Chris Waller and Gai Waterhouse have a good opinion of those two gallopers respectively. COUNTERATTACK got the job done with 60kg on his back first-up in a midweek race at Warwick Farm on April 15 and Waller has already said he reminds him a bit of subsequent Group 1 winners Brazen Beau and Zoustar at the same age. The 1200m is the query, and is he looking for longer now? Still, class might see him through. SEMPRE LIBERA probably should have won the Group 2 Percy Sykes Stakes (1200m) on the heavy track at Randwick on April 11. She got caught in a pocket on the turn and lost momentum before flashing late to be beaten less than half-a-length. There has been some support for her in early markets and she should be able to slot in midfield and flash late. Magic Millions 2YO Classic winner LE CHEF won a recent trial at the Sunshine Coast by 10 ½ lengths in quick time and while he didn’t beat much it was a super trial. Fitness is a concern and he hasn’t had a run for 119 days but he has drawn ideally and should be thereabouts. BLUEBERRY HILL looks next best. She was a bit stiff in the Ken Russell Memorial Classic when she was trapped wide without cover throughout and then she was checked at the top of the straight and had to switch paths before she ran on to finish second. She is going great guns but the wide barrier again is the concern. Other chances to DESERT MAN, SECRET SAGA, SAMPEAH and PEPPERANO.
Speed map: Strong speed here with SECRET SAGA and WICKED INTENT likely to push on from their awkward gates. LE CHEF won’t be far away, while DESERT MAN will also push forward. COUNTERATTACK, MADOTTI, SEMPRE LIBERA and PEPPERANO should all be midfield, while BLUEBERRY HILL could get trapped three wide once again.
Selections: 11 Madotti, 5 Counterattack, 15 Sempre Libera 1 Le Chef.
Suggested bet: Backing two horses here. Counterattack WIN @ $10, and Madotti EACH-WAY @ $18.
RACE 6
Group 3 BRC Sprint (1350m)
Another intriguing race and there seems to be an apparent lack of speed on paper. Thought the runs of FAST ‘N’ ROCKING have been fair lately and he should relish getting back on a firm track here. He shouldn’t get too far back and at the price I’m happy to be in his corner. CHARLIE BOY has come up the early favourite and he has done have upside after finishing alongside FAST ‘N’ ROCKING first-up in the Hall Mark Stakes. He meets FAST ‘N’ ROCKING 3kg better off in this race and gets the blinkers on. The obvious concern is whether CHARLIE BOY might be a bit flat second-up. He hasn’t won for 609 days and I’ve made a rule where I simply don’t back horses that haven’t won for that long because you will go broke doing it. ESTONIAN PRINCESS ran super first-up against her own sex in the Listed Silk Stocking (1200m) at the Gold Coast a fortnight ago and while this is tougher she does drop 4kg. GUNDY SPIRIT is flying and will also attack the line hard late, while ROCK STURDY is a classy galloper on his day, but barrier 13 concerns me, and he will need luck to slot in with the likely slow tempo. FINAL CRESCENDO and NITE ROCKER may not be going as well as a couple of these but the fact they look to get very comfortable runs on the speed gives them a chance. FINAL CRESCENDO has been disappointing in both his two runs back this winter but he did run some cracking races down south last spring and can improve, while NITE ROCKER just felt the pinch the last 200m last start and he always seems to peak third-up. He has a second placing to Hucklebuck in Listed company in October last year and he should lead and can run a cheeky race.
Speed map: Not much speed here with NITE ROCKER and FINAL CRESCENDO likely to control the race. TYPHOON RED may also push forward, while FAST ‘N’ ROCKING won’t be far away. CHARLIE BOY and GUNDY SPIRIT should be midfield, while not sure what they do with ROCK STURDY from barrier 13. SPEEDINESS will get back.
Selections: 3 Fast ‘N’ Rocking, 5 Charlie Boy, 6 Estonian Princess, 8 Final Crescendo.
Suggested bet: Tricky race and happy to stay out.
RACE 7
Group 1 Doomben Cup (2000m)
I must admit the Doomben Cup is probably the race I am least excited about on Saturday’s card. Don’t get me wrong, it’s a good field but it feels like the Hollindale Stakes all over again really (with the addition of PORNICHET and GYPSY DIAMOND). It’s not a race I want to get overly involved in but I’m happy to stick with LEEBAZ. I always thought he was going to be a bit of a ‘gunna’ horse but I loved the way he toughed it out to win the Hollindale Stakes a fortnight ago. They ran along in that race and interesting to note that places 2nd-5th came from ninth, 12th, 11th and 13th in running at the 600m mark. So, in other words, it was a race for the swoopers and he sat second and still gave them a beating. He should get across from the wide gate and lead them up and I don’t think they have to go too hard either. PORNICHET looks the danger on paper and his win was good the other day in the Toowoomba Cup with 60.5kg. I know Tim Bell said he was playing with them in the final 100m but I feel he definitely got tired late and will really come on from that run. Outside of those two you could make a case for a lot of runners. I’M IMPOSING was super in the Hollindale Stakes, FORETELLER should have finished closer in the race and MORIARTY was off the track throughout. Interestingly, I spoke to Chris Waller on Friday and he had MORIARTY alongside I’M IMPOSING and FORETELLER as his best hopes in this race. He said MORIARTY has been set for this race for six months and he does come up with a much better gate here. SILENT ACHIEVER on her best would give this a shake but it’s hard to back her after her disappointing effort in the Hollindale, while GYPSY DIAMOND did beat LEEBAZ two starts back although he had to give her 4.5kg that day instead of 2kg this weekend. Should box seat but she needs to lift on her third in the Wagga Wagga Cup last week. GREEN MOON also went really well in the Hollindale Stakes when wide throughout but he hasn’t won since winning the Melbourne Cup in 2012.
Speed map: Expecting LEEBAZ to roll forward from barrier 11 with PORNICHET and BANCA MO both pushing forward early. GYPSY DIAMOND won’t be far away either. Not sure what they do with WEARY? MORIARTY and I’M IMPOSING should settle midfield, while FORETELLER will get back.
Selections: 7 Leebaz, 10 Pornichet, 8 I’m Imposing, 3 Moriarty
Suggested bet: Leebaz WIN and something small Moriarty EACH-WAY @ $17.
RACE 8
Group 1 BTC Cup (1200m)
The scratchings of TRUST IN A GUST and TIME FOR WAR have really changed the complex of this race. TIME FOR WAR was likely to push forward and sit outside the speed and he was the runner that I felt was going to make sure the speed was genuine. His scratching means SRIKANDI could get an easy lead now and kick strong. She could not have been more impressive at the Gold Coast first-up in the Victory Stakes off a year break and you would think she would only improve off that. Gate 11 is the obvious query and she might have to do a bit of work from out there to get across. She is a genuine chance though if she can get across without too many dramas and she is building quite a nice little record (seven wins from nine starts). OUR BOY MALACHI has been one of the best backed runners in early markets. He is short enough now but he does look set to get all the favours from barrier seven. Not much needs to be said about a horse that has won 17 from 19 starts and it would be a fairytale story if he could win the BTC Cup. He is untested at this level but the good thing about him is he can reel off some quick sectionals if he gets an easy enough time near the speed and he is obviously a winner. SACRED STAR looks some value in the race but the scratching of TIME FOR WAR could bring him undone. It means the race is now likely to run at a slower tempo and it might not give him the chance to flash home over the top. He can’t do much more than what he has done though and he has won Group 1s at both his past two starts, and in convincing fashion as well. This is by no means his grand final but he will be flashing late. I must admit I overlooked SCISSOR KICK on first glance but I’m starting to warm to him now. He will appreciate getting back on firm ground and will get the gun run. He is pretty stiff not to have won a Group 1 already. I also can’t help but feel FONTELINA is the forgotten horse in the race. Sure he is no good thing but at $7.75 the place there’s no reason he can’t run a cheeky race. The key with him is firm going and he should get a great run midfield and if they go hard there’s no reason he can’t flash late. He was only one length behind SCISSOR KICK in the All Aged Stakes last start and he actually posted a quicker last 600m than that horse. SCISSOR KICK was first-up for 56 days though and the good thing about both of them is they should get a beautiful run just off the speed. EL ROCA is clearly up to a race like this if he is right but he is first-up for more than a year from a wide barrier and that makes it pretty tricky.
Speed map: SRIKANDI is likely to push on from her wide draw and she will probably take up the running with OUR BOY MALACHI and HOT SNITZEL landing in the box seat. Not sure what they do with EL ROCA, do they roll the dice and go forward or do they try to get some cover? FONTELINA and SACRED STAR will get a nice smother midfield and SACRED STAR should be about five pairs back and ready to whip to the outside in the straight.
Selections: 11 Scissor Kick, 15 Srikandi, 8 Our Boy Malachi, 6 Sacred Star, 3 Fontelina.
Suggested bet: Happy to back Scissor Kick EACH-WAY @ $8.50. Include Fontelina in your multiples.
RACE 9
Listed Mick Ditman Plate (1200m)
Cracking race for the three-year-olds to finish the day and sticking with the locally trained MISS COVER GIRL. I love the fact Kelly Schweida scratched her from the Gold Coast and waited for this, and from barrier six she should get a lovely smother midfield and hit the line hard late. I was a bit surprised with the $6.50 on offer and I think she is a good bet here. She won the PJ Bell Stakes in Sydney last start and I think she is a better horse when she can relax and then fly home late. KURO looks the danger and on ratings he is a clear top pick. He ran second to Sweet Idea in the Galaxy two starts back and then was disappointing on the heavy track last time out in the Arrowfield Sprint. He does have Group 1 form though and the only reason I swayed to MISS COVER GIRL was simply because KURO has drawn barrier 14. He will need a lot of luck from out there and he could well be stuck out three deep on a limb while his main danger is getting a suck run midfield. SARAJEVO looks next best and he has been gelded since finishing down the track in the Autumn Stakes in February. Trialled really well recently and he did finish fourth to Scissor Kick, beaten just over one length, in the Rosebud last year. PINCH RIVER isn’t the worst either and if he gets a cheap lead he can give a strong kick. Finally, the one I wouldn’t be surprised ran a race at big odds is STAVIVA. He came a long way last campaign and I’ve been told he has been working the house down at the Gold Coast this week. Trialled really well recently and while he will get back, don’t be surprised if he flashes home into the placings at big odds.
Speed map: Expect PINCH RIVER to go forward and lead here with DEIHEROS, MYWAYORTHEHIGHWAY and SOLDI DOMANI all settling up near the speed. KURO faces the danger of getting caught three deep and the fact most of the speed is drawn on the inside here means they probably won’t go that hard and it will be difficult for him to slot in. MISS COVER GIRL will get a dream run midfield and SARAJEVO and STAVIVA will get back a bit.
Selections: 12 Miss Cover Girl, 2 Kuro, 4 Pinch River, 10 Staviva.
Suggested bet: Happy to back Miss Cover Girl WIN @ $5. Pinch River and Staviva for multiples.
BEST: Ballet Suite, race 1.
NEXT BEST: Sadler’s Lake, race 2.
BEST VALUE: Madotti (race 5) and Epic (race 4).
QUADDIE:
1st leg: 3, 5, 6, 9, 10
2nd leg: 3, 7, 8, 10
3rd leg: 3, 6, 8, 11, 15
4th leg: 2, 4, 10, 12 (2, 12 if going shorter)
$40 for 10 per cent
Originally published as Doomben preview: Gold Coast Bulletin’s Brad Davidson takes an in-depth look at Doomben Cup Day
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