NSW trying to control Covid-19 in Greater Sydney with measures that didn’t work in Melbourne
NSW is still trying to crush the virus in Greater Sydney using a method that didn’t work in Melbourne, one expert says.
NSW has recorded its worst day of Covid-19 cases amid concerns that restrictions in Greater Sydney are not tight enough and won’t bring down cases.
NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian is persisting with a targeted approach, introducing new restrictions on Thursday in eight local government areas, something that experts point out did not work when Victoria attempted it during its second wave.
Until now, NSW’s nuanced approach to coronavirus outbreaks has helped to keep most of Sydney’s businesses open, but the Delta variant has defied increasingly tighter restrictions and is now highlighting the gaps in compliance among residents.
On Wednesday, authorities revealed 45 of 50 people who attended an illegal funeral service in western Sydney tested positive to Covid-19. Rules currently limit funerals to a maximum of 10 people.
Ms Berejiklian said the state could not afford any more setbacks or exceptions if Greater Sydney was to come out of lockdown in four weeks.
“One setback has a ripple effect which can take weeks to get out of,” she told reporters.
Today she announced fines for not wearing a mask would increase from $200 to $500, and police will be given more powers to shut down businesses, construction sites and public premises if there was a risk to public health.
NSW Police Commissioner Michael Fuller APM said officers would perform an extra 1000 shifts throughout the next week, with thousands to be deployed on compliance and other checks. Support from 300 Defence troops has also been requested.
“The challenge is that the Delta variant is probably exposing some of the noncompliance, where the previous viruses hadn’t,” Commissioner Fuller told reporters.
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Deakin University epidemiologist Professor Catherine Bennett said she thought the restrictions in Greater Sydney were tight enough to bring down cases.
“Particularly with the extra tightening today — but it will take a week or more to see the impact on numbers,” Prof Bennett told news.com.au.
“We must be prepared for that so it doesn’t demoralise people.”
Ms Berejiklian has already flagged that cases will likely go up before they come down, due to the high number of cases that have been infectious while in the community.
On Thursday, at least 88 of the record 239 cases had been infectious while in the community, with another 70 cases under investigation.
Prof Bennett said she hoped to see a drop in these cases infectious in the community first as this would mean the risk was decreasing, and would signal the conditions were right for total cases to start falling.
“If most households are isolated, then this could still turn around within weeks,” she said.
“This variant of the virus infects most people in a house within a short time frame, with 100 per cent being reported by a week or so.
“Therefore after three weeks no one will be infectious and that chain of transmission of the virus will have died out.”
But there is scepticism from others about whether the restrictions are tough enough to stop these chains of transmission.
Restrictions not harsh enough
University of Sydney modeller Professor Mikhail Prokopenko told news.com.au the continuing growth in cases showed that restrictions were probably not harsh enough.
He said it had been two weeks since tighter restrictions were announced on July 17, including the shutdown of construction sites, and no impact of these had yet been seen.
Despite the growing cases, authorities announced yesterday that work would be allowed to recommence on construction sites that were not occupied.
“I think they’re not harsh enough, I think that is clear,” he said of Sydney’s restrictions.
Prof Prokopenko’s modelling shows that social distancing in Sydney is still only at moderate levels, and is not high enough to bring down cases.
He said it was also concerning authorities were still trying to get the outbreak under control using localised geographical outbreak management within the large metropolitan area of Sydney, something that did not work when Melbourne tried it during its second lockdown last year.
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NSW announced on Thursday, further restrictions on eight local government areas, including a 5km limit and the use of masks outside the home. Other areas of Sydney have a 10km limit and only have to wear masks outdoors in certain circumstances.
“It is very challenging and difficult to manage outbreaks locally and it spreads to larger areas within the metropolitan area,” Prof Prokopenko said.
“Melbourne tried it last year and a hard lesson was learned.”
Victoria initially tried to contain its second wave through local lockdowns of 10 Melbourne postcodes, adding a number of regional areas about a month later. But days after that it was forced to introduce a Stage 4 lockdown across metropolitan Melbourne and Stage 3 restrictions in regional areas.
Statewide lockdowns are a tactic Victoria has continued to deploy, including in its most recent Delta lockdown that managed to bring cases under control within two weeks.
Prof Prokopenko is not hopeful cases in Sydney can be contained within the eight local government areas being targeted but does not rule it out, saying “it could still happen”.
However, he believes it would be better for tighter restrictions to be introduced across the entire Greater Sydney region.
“What we need to do is to be consistent and thorough, with very stringent measures applied comprehensively throughout the metropolitan area,” he said.
“We need to break this growth and to do that we need to be harsh and comprehensive.”
Prof Prokopenko said that one of the reasons why the infection rate was not slowing down more quickly was because Sydney’s lockdown was not imposed earlier.
Vaccination won't reduce cases until September
Prof Prokopenko’s modelling, which has been released as a preprint today, showed a strict lockdown would now be needed until mid-September to bring down cases below 10 a day, even if 40 per cent of the population was vaccinated.
The modelling looked at what would happen if a strict lockdown was introduced when there were only 100 cases in Sydney, and found cases would have been dropped below 10 after about six weeks. This mean the region could have been easing out of lockdown in two weeks time.
But waiting two weeks until cumulative cases reached 400, meant cases would not come down until around mid September at the earliest, despite an estimated 40 per cent of people being vaccinated by this time.
“What this tells us is that this delay in locking down, essentially cancels out (the benefit) of progressive vaccination,” Prof Prokopenko said.
However, Prof Prokopenko said the “balance will tip” and vaccination would come into play after a couple more months.
“The accelerating vaccination rollout will begin to make a difference in a few months, but at this stage a tight lockdown makes a larger impact and needs to continue.”
Prof Prokopenko’s modelling relies on the population achieving an 80 per cent reduction in social distancing, so he said people should continue to stay at home as much as possible, minimise their interactions outside households, and get vaccinated.
“No one wants to be in a position where we are still in a lockdown at Christmas,” he said.
“Australia needs to emerge from this and the only way to do so is to go hard and thoroughly.”
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