NSW lockdown may be in place until Christmas if state can’t get to zero cases

NSW’s high Covid numbers has some experts thinking it won’t be able to get down to zero cases, meaning lockdown will have to stay in place.

As Sydney’s Covid outbreak continues to worsen, experts are starting to think getting down to zero cases may not be possible and the city may need to be in lockdown until Christmas.

Cases in NSW have continued to increase, rising to 145 cases on Monday, which is the second worst day of cases in the outbreak despite a month-long lockdown. Eight people have now died.

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian had been hoping to see a downturn in cases over the weekend and early this week due to the stricter restrictions introduced a week ago but this has not happened yet.

In fact experts note the state’s five-day average rose up to 135 cases on Sunday after there was a record 163 cases on Saturday and 144 cases were found on Sunday.

While the lockdown is helping to keep a lid on cases, there is no sign the lockdown is turning the epidemic curve downwards, which means getting to zero cases may not be possible.

Experts including Melbourne University clinical epidemiologist Professor Nancy Baxter now believe Greater Sydney may not be able to get to zero cases through lockdown.

“I hope that’s not the case but things still haven’t turned around,” Prof Baxter told news.com.au.

“It does make you concerned that with Delta, which is that much more transmissible, that it does make it a challenge to get under control.”

Other experts told news.com.au they had also been surprised the lockdown had not made any impact yet in bringing down cases.

“I think we are all surprised at how infectious Delta is, I think that’s what the real gamechanger is,” Prof Baxter said.

However, she noted that Victoria’s second wave got up to 700 cases at its peak.

“So I think although the continued rise in cases is obviously concerning, it hasn’t risen to 700, which I think is testimony to lockdown and excellent contact tracing,” she said.

“My concern is that it can still get out of control.”

Even with only 100 cases a day, Prof Baxter said it was possible for the outbreak to spiral given the right circumstances.

“I think it would be very reassuring if we started to see a decline,” she said.

It’s not clear why there hasn’t been a drop yet in cases but Prof Baxter said NSW authorities had introduced measures gradually.

“Hopefully we’ll see more of an effect now, I think that’s what we’re all hoping and waiting for.”

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Essential workers living in certain Sydney areas are required to get tested for Covid every three days. Picture: NCA Newswire /Gaye Gerard

The NSW Premier told reporters on Monday they would be looking at cases over the next few days before deciding what life would look like after this Friday, when the lockdown was originally expected to end.

NSW chief health officer Dr Kerry Chant said there were two factors still driving transmission: the ongoing spread among households and at workplaces.

Over the weekend at least 28 of 50 mourners who visited a Pendle Hill home were found to have contracted Covid.

Prof Baxter said authorities should be guided by data about how the virus is being transmitted within Sydney when considering ongoing restrictions.

“People are saying that maybe NSW should do a lockdown like they have in Victoria and maybe they should but it’s important to look at what is actually happening and what is driving things specifically in Sydney,” she said.

Ms Berejiklian has already rejected certain measures including banning people from exercising outdoors or a curfew, saying they don’t work.

She did however hint at potentially relaxing restrictions in certain areas while others remained in tighter lockdown.

Prof Baxter said the key failing in NSW’s response had probably been the failure to define what was “essential” work.

“It took them a long time — over two weeks to change tack,” she said.

“I hope that with data coming in all the time that they are making changes in a more responsive way.”

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Restrictions that could be in place until Christmas

While there has been some talk of NSW “living with the virus”, Prof Baxter says “no one is even contemplating living with this until people are vaccinated because living with it means a lot of people are going to die with it”.

Sadly, this means Sydney is facing a long lockdown until enough people are vaccinated and this could take until Christmas.

“That’s a possible scenario because lockdown restrictions haven’t got the virus under control to the extent we want it under control,” Prof Baxter said.

“It’s hard to believe looser restrictions will keep things under wraps.

“If it’s not under control under lockdown, if we come out of lockdown it’s going to explode.”

The NSW Premier has indicated authorities are looking at how people can live as freely and as safely as possible during August, September and October.

Much could rely on modelling from the Doherty Institute in Melbourne that is due to be completed this week on the rate of vaccinations needed for Australia to avoid lockdowns and to eventually open up.

While many Australians feel they have already endured long lockdowns, especially in Victoria, Prof Baxter pointed to places like Toronto in Canada where they have only just re-opened indoor dining after eight months. These venues were closed in early October last year.

“Given how hard Delta is to control even in lockdown, if we open up, we’ll just have to close down again — only the situation will be worse because it would have spread more widely in the community,” she said.

However, Prof Baxter said there was the possibility of easing restrictions in some areas including construction.

“I think there are a number of options, particularly with outdoor workers and rapid testing at worksites,” she said.

She said rather than making people wait in line for Covid testing every three days, testing could be done at work sites. Vaccinating workers may also help.

She said Sydney was looking at a much longer period of restrictions so this made sense.

“We’re not talking about this being over in two weeks,” she said.

“Hotspot vaccination and vaccination of essential workers makes sense in Sydney.”

But Prof Baxter warned there had been some Covid spread at construction sites and that was a problem.

“Workers going from construction site to construction site, that is obviously something that needs to stop. They can’t go from site to site no matter what their skills are.”

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