Liberal party bracing for RBA decision on interest rates on Tuesday

The Liberal Party is bracing for a big decision this Tuesday as two new polls suggest time is running out for Scott Morrison.

The Liberal Party is bracing for the Reserve Bank’s decision on interest rates this Tuesday as two new opinion polls suggest time is running out for Scott Morrison to secure another miracle election victory.

According to the latest Newspoll, Labor has maintained a two-party-preferred vote lead of 53-47.

If replicated on election day this would see Labor swept to government with a majority and Scott Morrison would lose 10 seats.

All eyes are now on Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe and the RBA board which will announce this week whether it’s preparing to announce the first election rate hike since Kevin Rudd was swept to victory in 2007.

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Philip Lowe, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Picture: Lisa Maree Williams/Getty Images

The Reserve Bank hasn’t raised its official cash rate target for more than a decade which means thousands of mortgage holders have no adult experience of what a rate rise looks like.

Last month, the RBA kept the cash rate steady at 0.1 per cent but economists warned a hike could happen as soon as next month.

The central bank’s last rate rise was 25 basis points in November 2010, which took the cash rate target to 4.75 per cent.

Since that date, the RBA has either kept rates steady or cut them – for 12 years.

But inflation rising – the biggest indicator of the cost of living – that’s all about to change.

As the Labor Party launched its campaign in Perth with the theme that “Australians deserve better”, it was picked up by campaign spokesman Jason Clare who accused the Prime Minister of letting down voters.

“Interest rate rises are knocking on the door. Life is getting harder. Not easier,’’ he said.

“And what did Scott Morrison say this week? ‘it’s not my fault! It’s not my job’. How many times have you heard that? You deserve better than that.”

Labor leader Anthony Albanese welcomed by Kevin Rudd and Paul Keating. Picture: Liam Kidston.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison at a Liberal campaign rally at Accor stadium in the electorate of Reid. Picture By Jason Edwards

An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian has found Labor’s primary vote lifted to 38 per cent, after going wobbly after Mr Albanese’s campaign stumbles.

Popular support for the Coalition is steady at 36 per cent.

According to the Resolve Political monitor commissioned by Nine Newspapers, Labor’s primary vote is steady at 34 per cent.

That’s not much higher than the result Bill Shorten secured when he managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory at the 2019 election.

However, as result of the Greens polling a whopping 15 per cent according to the Resolve Research, it estimates that Labor is on track for victory with a two-party preferred result of 54-46 in the ALP’s favour.

It’s the first time the Nine newspapers Resolve poll has published a two-party preferred result since they paused polling operations and then moved to primary vote only polls in the wake of controversy over the reliability of polls in 2019.

The poll suggests support for the Coalition has dropped from 35 to 33 per cent. Labor is on a primary vote of 34 per cent.

Around one in three voters are putting their vote with the Greens, in independent or minor parties such as One Nation and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party.

The exclusive survey, conducted by Resolve Strategic for The Sydney Morning Heraldand The Age, also shows the Greens increased their primary vote from 11 to 15 per cent – a figure that generated some scepticism among other pollsters.

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party rose from 4 to 5 per cent each.