Newspoll: Labor holds big lead as Scott Morrison rises

Scott Morrison’s approval rating rises to its highest level this year despite a lift in primary support for Labor.

Scott Morrison at a Liberal campaign rally at Accor stadium in Sydney on Sunday. Picture: Jason Edwards

Scott Morrison has weathered an election storm over rising cost of living, with his approval rating rising to its highest level this year despite a lift in support for Labor which remains in a winning position three weeks from polling day.

An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian at the halfway point of the campaign shows Labor’s primary vote lifting a point to 38 per cent, having stabilised from a downward trend before the election was called.

Popular support for the Coalition is steady at 36 per cent, with the Liberal/Nationals parties having struggled to lift above this level since late last year.

With soaring inflation thrust to centre stage of the campaign and a debate over economic management now dominating the political contest, the trend is pointing towards a Labor victory.

Labor has maintained its two-party-preferred vote lead of 53-47. Based on a uniform measure across all 151 lower house seats this would equate to the loss of 10 seats for the Coalition.

A large number of voters are still leaning to minor parties and independents, which command a combined 26 per cent of the vote.

In a separate question put to voters, 56 per cent said it was time for a change of government while 44 per cent said the Coalition government deserved to be returned.

Despite coming under pressure over inflation figures released last week pointing to a probable interest rate rise when the Reserve Bank board meets on Tuesday, support for Mr Morrison has lifted with a five-point positive turnaround in approval of his performance. With a satisfaction rating of 44 per cent and a dissatisfaction rating of 51 per cent, these numbers represent Mr Morrison’s strongest position this year.

Bill Shorten, left, shakes hands with Anthony Albanese at the Labor Party election campaign launch in Perth on Sunday. Picture: Getty Images

After a week in Covid-19 isolation, Mr Albanese has also recorded a slight improvement, with a three point lift on his net satisfaction levels. The Labor leader’s satisfaction rating rose two points to 40 per cent and his dissatisfaction rating fell a point to 49 per cent. His net negative rating of minus 9 is now worse than Mr Morrison’s.

However, Mr Albanese has clawed back ground on who voters believe would make the better prime minister although Mr Morrison still leads by six points. Mr Morrison lost a point on this measure to 45 per cent, while Mr Albanese gained two points to 39 per cent.

The Newspoll revealed a two point jump in One Nation’s vote to five per cent. This is largely a function of One Nation now offered to nearly all participants in the Newspoll survey after the party formally nominated in 149 seats last week. Prior to that the party had only nominated a candidate for less than half of all lower house seats.

Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party held its ground with 4 per cent of the vote. The “others” vote – representing micro parties and independents – was down by three percentage points to six per cent reflecting the Newspoll survey now nominating all options in every seat and not giving respondents the option of “or some other candidate” in the survey.

The Newspoll was conducted between April 27 and 30 and surveyed 1538 voters throughout Australia. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.9 per cent.