Voters yet to commit to Anthony Albanese

Federal Opposition leader Anthony Albanese speaks at the Labor Party election campaign launch in Perth on Sunday. Picture: Getty Images

Labor strategists will no doubt believe they have reached a turning point in the election.

Having suffered a significant fall in popular support leading into the campaign, there were deep concerns that momentum had begun to shift against Anthony Albanese.

The party’s primary vote had fallen from 41 per cent in March to just 36 per cent in the first week of the campaign. The concern was it was going to keep going down. At the same time, Albanese’s approval ratings had plummeted to their lowest since he became leader following a week of gaffes and errors.

Labor’s primary vote has not only stabilised but has started to rise. Albanese’s approval ratings remain very low, but he has now also pegged back the gap Scott Morrison has held over him as the preferred prime minister.

The question both sides will be pondering is whether the latest Newspoll becomes a platform for momentum to swing Labor’s way, following a fortnight in which the Prime Minister has been under pressure on two key fronts – defence and the economy.

Morrison’s approval ratings have improved for the second week in a row and he is at his highest net satisfaction rating of the year. So there has been momentum swinging back his way personally. Yet this hasn’t translated into any lift in support for the Coalition, which remains stubbornly low. But as the last election showed, conservative votes parked with minor parties swung back hard and fast for the Liberal/Nationals in the final week of the campaign.

A clue to what is behind these numbers was in a separate question asked for the first time: whether voters believed the government should be returned or whether it was time for a change. In the first round, only 38 per cent believed the government should be re-elected and 50 per cent said it was time for a change of government. Among the 11 per cent who said they didn’t know, but were pushed to answer one way or the other, the number was in the government’s favour – 51 per cent to 49 per cent.

Added together, this produced a 56-44 split in favour of time for change of government. This clearly shows people may have made up their minds that the Morrison government shouldn’t be re-elected. And it explains why the primary vote for the Coalition isn’t budging. But it also suggests that while a majority of voters may be of this view, it doesn’t necessarily mean they have decided they want to elect Albanese. This is an important distinction. And it is critical to the Coalition’s hopes of a second miracle victory.

In 2007, voters wanted a change of government and were comfortable electing a Rudd Labor government. Similarly in 2013, voters wanted a change of government from the Gillard Labor government and decided they wanted to elect the Liberals to clean up the mess.

This is by no means decided in this campaign. Voters may have decided one side of the question but not yet the other. It suggests the election is still up for grabs despite the headline numbers.