COVID-19: New research suggest coronavirus up to eight times more deadly than the flu

New research has suggested the coronavirus is up to eight times more deadly than the seasonal flu with national tallies being skewed by unreported deaths.

Newly published research has suggested coronavirus could be far more deadly than previously thought.

The findings have challenged other research suggesting COVID-19 has a relatively low fatality rate and said it could be as much as eight times more deadly than the flu.

Researchers drew the conclusions by monitoring unusual deaths in Italy since January, saying coronavirus has a fatality rate of no less than 0.5 per cent, and could be killing infected people at a rate of 0.8 per cent in some countries. The seasonal flu has a fatality rate of only 0.1 per cent.

The researchers, from the University of California, Berkeley, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, looked at unusual death data comparing it with data from the past five years.

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New research has suggested the coronavirus is much more deadly than previously thought. Picture: John Moore/Getty Images/AFP

The researchers argue a significant gap in reporting of Italian fatalities exists due to deaths in older people not being recorded on official coronavirus tallies.

The study argues the death rate in Italy from COVID-19 is far worse than is being reported, according to Medicalxpress. Italy has reported 26,977 deaths from coronavirus however the study argues a true figure is more likely to be close to 50,000.

The study argues the virus is more likely to kill people over 70, and will therefore have a higher fatality rate in areas with an older population. The overall outcome will be a higher fatality rate for Italy than is observed in New York. In Italy, the fatality rate will be 0.8 per cent and in New York, 0.5 per cent.

However, the research also notes New York is likely to experience more deaths of younger people, due to the higher number of people infected.

The team’s revised estimates put the death rate from coronavirus at about 0.85 per cent, saying they believe this is a more accurate reflection of the lives lost in Italy.

Modelling from Stanford University epidemiologists published last week suggested COVID-19 had a death rate of between 0.1 and 0.2 per cent. Another research team from the University of Southern California published similar fatality rates.

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But the study’s lead author, Professor Uros Seljak, says the conclusions about fatality rates being drawn by other research teams are “much lower” than his team’s estimates.

“If you want to know what are the chances of dying from COVID-19 if you get infected, we observed that a very simple answer seems to fit a lot of data: It is the same as the chance of you dying over the next 12 months from normal causes,” said Prof Seljak.

Prof Seljak is a professor of physics, faculty scientist at Berkeley Lab and member of the Berkeley Institute for Data Science. He also is co-director of the Berkeley Centre for Cosmological Physics (BCCP).

The modelling is based on the assumption that excess deaths this year – as compared to previous years – can be attributable to coronavirus even if they’ve not been included in country's official tallies.

The author of the study said catching coronavirus in 2020 doubles your chance of death even if you’re under the age of 65.

The study was published on MedRxiv ahead of undergoing peer review and journal submission.