What are the chances of dying from coronavirus?

As the global coronavirus crisis deepens, researchers have guessed that about nine in 1000 cases of the disease will end in death.

As the global coronavirus crisis deepens, researchers in the UK have estimated the disease’s death rate.

Britain’s Health Secretary Matt Hancock said that the government’s “very best assessment” was that the mortality rate was “2 per cent, or likely, lower”.

Researchers think that between five and 40 coronavirus cases in 1000 will result in death, with a best guess of nine in 1000 or 1 per cent.

However, your chances of dying from coronavirus is dependent on a range of factors, including your age, gender and general health, and the health system you’re in.

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In China – the epicentre of the disease and where the majority of confirmed cases and deaths have occurred – the Australian Department of Health estimated that the percentage of people diagnosed who will end up dying is 3.4 per cent.

Outside of China, the department said the case fatality rate is only 1.6 per cent.

IS CORONAVIRUS MORE DEADLY THAN PREVIOUS DISEASE OUTBREAKS?

While coronavirus has surpassed the death toll of the 2003 SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) outbreak, and is more transmissible, the mortality rate shows it isn’t as deadly as SARS or MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome).

The World Health Organisation (WHO) said that of the 8000 people who became ill with SARS, 774 people died – a rate of 9.6 per cent.

The MERS outbreak of 2012 had a mortality rate of 34.4 per cent.

MORTALITY RATE PER AGE BRACKET

According to data from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control (CCDC), this is the coronavirus mortality rate for every age bracket:

Children under 9: Zero mortality rate

People aged 10 – 39: 0.20 per cent mortality rate

People aged 40 – 49: 0.40 per cent mortality rate

People aged 50 – 59: 1.30 per cent mortality rate

People aged 60 – 69: 3.60 per cent mortality rate

People aged 70 – 79: 8.00 per cent mortality rate

People aged 80 plus: 14.8 per cent mortality rate

WHO IS MOST LIKELY TO DIE?

Doctors around the world have been quick to analyse just who has been suffering the most serious coronavirus complications.

While most people only developed mild symptoms, researchers found have that those most at risk of dying are over the age of 70, or those who have pre-existing serious health conditions like heart disease, diabetes, high blood pressure or cancer.

Professor Robert Booy from the National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance told the ABC that Australia needed to focus on older people living in aged care and the elderly still living at home, as they were most at risk.

“People with chronic medical conditions of the lung or the heart also need to be closely monitored,” he said.

So far, pregnant women do not appear to be at an increased risk of contracting coronavirus and developing complications.

A paper by the CCDC published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology looked at more than 44,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China as of February 11, and found that disease death rates were lowest for those aged under 30, with only eight deaths out of 4500 cases.

However, death rates among men infected with the coronavirus in China – particularly those in their late 40s and older – exceeded those among women.

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WHERE IN THE WORLD ARE PEOPLE MOST LIKELY TO DIE?

The largest at-risk group by far are those who either live in or have been to the Hubei province in China – in particular, its capital Wuhan – or who have been in contact with someone who is a confirmed coronavirus case.

If you have not been to China, your risk of contracting or dying from coronavirus is significantly lower.

However, experts have warned that it’s wise to treat everyone with “caution and respect”, as you don’t know who they may have been in contact with.

“Anyone could transmit the infection to you,” Professor Booy said.

“So smile, don’t shake hands, keep a good distance away from other people.”

The WHO have advised to take the precautions you normally would to avoid catching the flu as a preventive measure. This includes thorough and regular hand washing; avoiding touching your eyes, nose and mouth; and maintaining at least one metre of distance between yourself and anyone who is coughing or sneezing.