Even if Dutton wins, he loses

HIS supporters might think Peter Dutton would make a great PM, but there’s a big reason the voters won’t agree.

OPINION

EVEN if Peter Dutton wins a leadership spill, he loses. He ought to be careful rearranging the furniture in the Lodge as it’s going to be tough to keep the keys at an election in a few months time.

Long before he was a politician, Peter Dutton was a police officer in Queensland. For as long as he has been in politics, voters have only known him as the bad cop. As Immigration and Home Affairs Minister, he’s had to be a bogeyman. The portfolios have done nothing to present him as a unifying leader who’d be at home on an election campaign trail, yet if he wants to be prime minister, that’s exactly what he’s going to need.

A softer side is needed to win votes on a campaign. You’ve got to kiss babies, shake hands in shopping centres and neck schooners in the pub. It’s difficult to picture Dutton appearing comfortable on camera in any of these scenarios. Being approachable and affable are important qualities — and if he has them, we certainly haven’t seen them yet.

Leaders need to be tough, but they also need to have a heart. Having an ear for how the broader community feels on the big issues is another crucial test, and Dutton has failed on this before.

Peter Dutton has shown time and time again he’s on his own when it comes to controversial issues. Picture: Kym Smith

The divisive postal plebiscite on same-sex marriage is a good example of the conservative social views that Dutton and others hold, being largely out of step with what the majority of the electorate is thinking. He voted ‘no’ in the plebiscite and actively encouraged others to do the same — 61 per cent of Aussies disagreed with him when they cast their votes.

He has a history of divisive actions which appeal to conservative voters but alienate many others.

In 2008, he didn’t show up in the chamber during the apology to the Stolen Generations.

In 2015, he was caught on microphone joking about Pacific nations being wiped out by rising sea levels.

In 2016, he inadvertently sent a text message to a journalist, calling her a “mad f***ing witch”.

And earlier this year, he told us that people in Melbourne were scared of going out because of an African gang crisis.

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Of course there are many, many conservative voters who share his views. The question is, are there enough of them to win an election? And does blindly appealing to conservative forces just hand votes to Bill Shorten? Don’t get me wrong, there is a huge segment of the conservative base crying out for a truly conservative leader. They’ve hated Turnbull and have been smarting since Abbott was unseated. What they really want is Abbott back, and if it can’t be him, they’ll settle for Dutton.

Some of these voters will have drifted in recent years, but only further to the right. They may have become interested in voting for the parties of Pauline Hanson, Cory Bernardi or Bob Katter. But their preferences would likely flow back to the Coalition anyway. These are not folks who are running off to vote for The Greens. Appealing to the Conservative base and abandoning the centre may win seats for the Coalition in Queensland, but could lose just as many in Victoria and NSW. Even Dutton’s own seat isn’t all that safe. He only holds it by about 3000 votes.

Peter Dutton, pictured here voting in 2016, probably needs to do some more work in his local electorate. He only holds his seat by 3000 votes. Picture: Annette Dew

The last prime minister to see out a full term was John Howard. He is proof that social conservatism can be popular in Australian politics. But the time has to be right and so does the politician. Peter Dutton is no John Howard.

For Dutton, his conservatism is 20 years too late and his brand will be a tough one to elect.

By challenging Turnbull, the Dutton brand will only be further cemented as divisive and combative. Conservatives will praise his toughness on border control and immigration, but many more will worry though, whether Dutton can be relied on for empathy at times of national crisis. Will he be the shoulder we can lean on in natural disasters and other crises that inevitably come our way? Is he capable of offering a reassuring voice to calm our fears and inspire unity?

Changing leaders, even speculating about it, shatters stability. People hate infighting. Labor learnt this in the disastrous Rudd-Gillard-Rudd years, and its chance of getting back into power has only now improved after uniting under a leader whose position isn’t constantly under threat.

This is a movie that we have all seen before, but the Coalition mustn’t have much time for the cinema.

Disunity is death. Just ask Kevin Rudd. Or Julia Gillard. Or Tony Abbott. Or Malcolm Turnbull.

Dutton was a detective. The case for a spill needs to be investigated a little more thoroughly.

Chris Urquhart is a freelance journalist. Follow him on Twitter: @chrisurquhart