Chances of a Dutton challenge gain ground, but there’s a glaring flaw in the plan

PETER Dutton’s chances of becoming Australia’s sixth PM in just in a decade have increased — but there’s a huge problem that could derail the plan.

IT’S happening again.

Australia seems set to have its sixth Prime Minister in just 11 years as federal politicians again fail to settle policy and personal differences. And for the fourth time in eight years, the change could happen without the involvement of voters.

But if, as is rumoured, Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton wants the top job, there is one glaring hurdle he will have to overcome. He might get the prime ministership, but he will also have to devote a lot of energy defending his southeast Queensland seat of Dickson.

While Mr Dutton had confidently forecast the Liberals would take the neighbouring seat of Longman in the recent by-election, Labor’s victory was a warning of his vulnerability in Dickson.

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He is popular among some conservative voters with his claim to have stopped the boats, and his rejection of same-sex marriage, telling corporate supporters to “stick to your knitting”.

He has not been a leadership favourite, with front bench colleagues Treasurer Scott Morrison and Foreign Minister Julie Bishop rated ahead of him in most opinion surveys.

His handling of immigration issues, particularly the long-term detention of asylum seekers on Manus and Nauru, and the “militarisation” of the Border Force have attracted critics.

Julie Bishop is more popular with voters than Dutton. Picture: Rohan Thomson

Scott Morrison is another front bencher voters prefer to Dutton. Picture: Kym Smith

Mr Dutton has created the new Department of Home Affairs to have an influence in a range of matters from citizenship to security measures and foreign affairs.

Despite this, rumblings are getting louder that he could challenge Malcolm Turnbull for the leadership. And if the turmoil doesn’t please voters, in May next year we could be looking at yet another change of leaders should Labor win and Bill Shorten take power at the federal election.

That’s the bleak sequence of political incompetence confronting voters this week as moves against the Prime Minister are fed by an opinion poll today reporting a substantial drop in the Government’s standing and a fall in the approval of the Prime Minister.

The Government’s primary vote fell from 39 per cent to 33 per cent in a month, according to an Ipsos poll for Fairfax Media.

Christopher Pyne has said Turnbull still has the confidence of the party. Picture: Rohan Thomson

That put the two-party preferred vote at 55-45, giving Labor a big lead.

And in what could be a further indication of voter resentment towards all major parties, support for minor parties rose from 15 per cent to 19 per cent.

There is increasing evidence of backing for Mr Dutton to replace Mr Turnbull, but senior ministers are rallying behind the Prime Minister.

Defence Industries Minister Christopher Pyne said Mr Turnbull retained the confidence of an overwhelming majority of the 85 members of the Liberal party room. And last Friday, Mr Dutton also gave his backing, although to some it was slow in coming.

The ignition issue is disagreement over the Government’s National Energy Guarantee with a small group of backbenchers — led by former Prime Minister Tony Abbott who hopes for a ministry under Mr Dutton — threatening to vote against it in parliament.

Peter Dutton could be after the top job. Picture: AAP Image/Mick Tsikas

Tony Abbott may have played a part. Picture: Kym Smith

Mr Turnbull has attempted to appease the group by setting emission targets by regulation rather than legislation, and by promising to set a default price for electricity to lower bills to households.

But he faces increased demands for lower prices through greater use of coal-fired generation.

The turnover will be too familiar to voters.

The revolving door at The Lodge began whirling in 2007 when Labor’s Kevin Rudd defeated Liberal John Howard. Mr Rudd was ousted by his deputy Julia Gillard in 2010, but returned in 2013.

Labor was defeated by Liberal Tony Abbott in 2013, but Mr Abbott was removed by Malcolm Turnbull in 2015.