Chances of winning $200 million Powerball doesn’t stop Aussies dreaming

As the Powerball balloons to $200 million, there’s a strange habit that’s taking over Australia – and if you do this, you’re not alone.

The Powerball jackpot on Thursday has ballooned to $200 million and half of all Australian adults are expected to purchase tickets in the hope of winning, The Lott has predicted.

Many of them (me included), will also be daydreaming about all the ways they will spend their $200 million. Perhaps even going as far as to start planning their next big holiday, browse real estate listings or fantasise about quitting their job.

But when there’s a 650 times greater chance of being struck by lightning (1 in 12,000), being hit by an asteroid (1 in 1.6 million), or being killed by a bee or wasp (1 in 54,093), than of winning the division one Powerball, which in one standard game is 1 in 134,490,400, why do so many of us convince ourselves that we will win the jackpot?

Or even go one step further than this and start making grand plans about how we will spend it?

Aussies are dreaming of winning $200 million in Thursday’s Powerball jackpot. Picture: NCA NewsWire / David Swift

In terms of winning, clinical psychologist and author of Difficult People, Dr Rebecca Ray says there are a number of psychological factors at play.

“We don’t comprehend the size of the probability numbers so the odds seem better than they are,” she says.

And, sorry to be the bearer of bad news but if the chances are already slim on a regular draw, this jackpot is even further from reach.

According to The Lott, if nearly half of the adult population purchase tickets – an estimate using Roy Morgan population data from 2019 where the adult population Australia-wide was 18,784,000 – it means the ticket holding half is approximately 9,392,000. Add to this the understanding that some adults may have multiple tickets into the draw and well, just like in Hunger Games, the odds are most definitely not in your favour.

But it’s not just a lack of understanding around probability that contributes to our wishful thinking says Dr Ray.

“Additionally, there’s the Monte Carlo Fallacy that occurs when we assume an event will happen because it hasn’t happened for a while. There’s also an availability heuristic where we assume, we’re more likely to win based on known instances that come to mind. For example, ‘my mate won from a ticket purchased at X newsagent’,” she says.

Browsing real estate listing to spend your imaginary lottery win isn’t unusual. Picture: iStock

And for those of us who have already decided on what we will spend our fortune on, right down to the last dollar, well firstly, you’re not alone in doing this and secondly, there is a psychological reason behind this too, says Dr Ray.

“Firstly, it’s entertainment – it’s thrilling to imagine a different life, especially if that life has none of the financial restrictions we currently face,” she says.

“And secondly, hope: there’s a distinct dopamine hit that comes from the slightest possibility that different life circumstances might occur this coming Thursday night, even when we realise the odds are extremely slim.”

Dreaming of how you’ll spend a lottery win is a form of entertainment. Picture: iStock

She also says that some people dream and plan in detail because of the dopamine hit (it feels good), and perhaps because they have a strong belief in possibilities or the idea of the law of attraction.

This belief in the law of attraction, otherwise known as manifestation, has led some Australians participating in charity, or art union home lotteries to go as far as to redirect their mail to the home lottery prize in an attempt to increase their chances of winning (a feat so far proven to be unsuccessful).

On a positive note, for the unlucky millions on Thursday evening who do not win the jackpot, Dr Ray does provide some advice on how to manage the disappointment.

“Go into it knowing and understanding the probability statistics – don’t pin big life goals on winning the lottery. Find other ways to make those goals happen (you might not be able to afford a yacht, but maybe you could get your boat licence and buy a Jet Ski after saving up … and find additional ways of dreaming that are more tangible – e.g. vision boards with actionable steps.”

And with that, Happy Powerball! And may the odds be ever in your (well, my) favour.

Shona Hendley is a freelance writer.