The Early Oil: Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley previews Derby Day at Flemington

PODCAST/TAB BIG BETS: HERALD Sun form analyst Michael Manley looks at one of the biggest days on the racing calendar — Derby Day at Flemington.

HERALD Sun form analyst Michael Manley looks at one of the biggest days on the racing calendar — Derby Day at Flemington.

MATTY, MACCA AND DANNY PREVIEW A QUALITY DERBY DAY AT FLEMINGTON IN A VINTAGE EDITION OF THE SUPERRACING PODCAST

WANNABE TURF EXPERTS READ HERE: THE HANDBOOK

THE EARLY OIL: DERBY DAY PREVIEW

FLEMINGTON: CARNIVAL GUIDE

HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

BEAT THE BOOKIE: VALUE BETS

MELBOURNE CUP: EARLY FORM GUIDE

RACE 1

Darren Weir would have aimed MAHUTA (4) for this event. He was impressive leading throughout to defeat Holler at Caulfield last start over 1400m. Holler since won easily at Moonee Valley. BASSET (3) pushed forward from his middle draw in the Caulfield Guineas and after threatening early in the straight tired for creditable sixth. Sydney horses have a great record in this race and last year Chris Waller won with Kermadec. He has the promising MONTAUK (5), who won the corresponding event Kermadec did last year at Randwick, going into this race. TIVACI (9) is better than last start failure indicates when he choked down in the Caulfield Classic. HE’S OUR ROKKI (7) wasn’t suited by slow speed at Caulfield but still finished on well for second behind Mr Individual.

Suggested bet: Mahuta each-way. Box 3, 4 and 5 in exactas.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Bassett $2.80-$3.30 ($1,500 @ $3), Montaux $6-$3.90 ($600 @ $6, $900 @ $4.60), He’s Our Rokkii $8-$6.50 ($480 @ $6.50)

RACE 2

DAWNIE PERFECT (2) stepped up to 2000m and couldn’t have been more impressive winning the Ethereal Stakes. She sat off the speed and outsprinted them in the straight. Takes on a similar field. AMBIENCE (3) was outsprinted by her on that occasion but she still battled on well. MY POPPETTE (1) boasts different form lines. She was impressive winning at Moonee Valley last week after placing in strong form race the Edward Manifold Stakes at this track. BANNATYNE (9) over-raced in early stages in the Ethereal Stakes and went out with a big lead so effort was sound to hold on for fourth. PRINCESS ARIA (15) ran on well in the same race after being held up.

Suggested bet: Dawnie Perfect the win.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: My Poppette $6.50-$4.60 ($800 @ $6.50, $1,000 @ $6, $1,000 @ $5.50), Princess Aria $26-$13 ($2,000 @ $21, $1,000 @ $5.84 place, $1,000 @ $15)

RACE 3

DISPOSITION (3) was brilliant winning first-up this track and distance and followed that with seconds in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes and then the Toorak Handicap. Drawn out but should be able to follow 1400m specialist CHARMED HARMONY (7) across. Charmed Harmony was brave at his last start in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes where he had to work throughout so effort to finish fifth beaten a length and a quarter was good. Drawn out here though. NSW visitor ARTLEE (12) was held up for a run but finished strongly for third behind Dothraki in good race. MESSENE (2) has been freshened since fourth in the Epsom behind Winx. RED EXCITEMENT (8) has a great strike rate and was impressive winning his only start this track and distance in February.

Suggested bet: Disposition the win.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Disposition $4.40-$4.50-$3.90 ($2,000 @ $4.40, $600 @ $4.50, $1,800 @ $4), Artlee $10-$5.50 ($200 @ $10, $400 @ $9, $650 e/w @ $8/$2.75, $500 @ $7

TWICE, $400 @ $6), Mr Utopia $17-$13

RACE 4

Exosphere, ridden by James McDonald, wins the Roman Consul Stakes. Picture: Mark Evans

All eyes will be on giant Sydney colt EXOSPHERE (1) who has won his three starts this time in in a breeze to take his record to five wins from seven starts. Won the Roman Consul Stakes easily last start which was the same race the last two winners of the Coolmore Stakes, Zoustar and Brazen Beau both won before winning at Flemington. Stablemate MOGADOR (10) finished on strongly behind KEEN ARRAY (4) at Caulfield last start. Keen Array is a brilliant type and is improving with racing. READY FOR VICTORY (2) has been freshened since he finished third in the Caulfield Guineas in good effort. JAPONISME (5) tried hard when third behind Exosphere in the Roman Consul Stakes.

Suggested bet: Take exacta Exosphere to defeat Keen Array and Mogador.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Exosphere$1.40unchanged ($4,000 @ $1.40, $2,166 @ $1.40, $2,000 @ $1.40 THREE TIMES)

RACE 5

EXCESS KNOWLEDGE (3) ran on strongly behind the impressive AMRALAH at Caulfield last start who strolled in. Building to a win and should be suited by 2500m. . Stablemate BOHEMIAN LILY (8) is racing consistently with placings in the Herbert Power and Moonee Valley Cup. HAVANA COOLER (6) gave away a big start in The Metropolitan but ran on for third in slower part of the track behind stablemate Magic Hurricane. CHANCE TO DANCE (5) was disappointing in that race finishing fifth but was also in the wrong section. International galloper ELHAAME (4), RULING DYNASTY (7) and JUNOOB (1) all have strong chances.

Suggested bet: Excess Knowledge each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Excess Knowledge $6-$6.50-$5, Havana Cooler $7-$5.50, Ruling Dynasty $7-$5.50 ($500 e/w @ $6.50/$2.22, $600 x $400 @ $6.50/$2.22), Zanteca $12-$10

RACE 6

Each horse has a case to win. CONTRIBUTER (5) hasn’t fired this spring but his three runs have been solid. Should now be at his peak and if can recapture his form from the Sydney autumn is worth one more chance. ECUADOR (10) fought on well for second behind superstar Winx in the Epsom. Will roll forward and should take catching. Stablemate PORNICHET (4) settled back and ran on nicely in last week’s Cox Plate. Horses backing up from running in the Cox Plate have won five of the past six Mackinnon Stakes including last year’s winner HAPPY TRAILS (2) who had little chance last week as he was trapped wide. STRATUM STAR (13) doesn’t know how to run a bad race and should get a good on speed run. EXTRA ZERO (3) wasn’t suited by the track bias in the Cranbourne Cup but loves this track and distance.

Suggested bet: Contributer each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Happy Trails $10-$7.50 ($625 @ $8), Contributer $9-$7, Flamingo Star $8-$7 (*was $15 in All In market), Stratum Star $8-$6

RACE 7

Craig Newitt pilots Tarzino to victory at Caulfield. Picture: Getty Images

TARZINO (7) has the best form credentials to win this. Flew home in the Caulfield Guineas and would have finished closer bar for being held up with 100m to go when he finished seventh. Followed that with another great run in the Moonee Valley Vase last week when he made a sustained run from a long way back on a biased track to finish third. Mystery runner is the undefeated WA galloper KIA ORA KOUTOU (3) who has won four from four. Lobbed along out the back before finishing strongly to defeat older horses over 2200m at Belmont Park last start. LIZARD ISLAND (1) has been racing consistently in strong form races. Battled on strongly for second behind Sacred Eye in the Caulfield Classic after not having any favours in the run. ETYMOLOGY (9), PAY UP BRO (13) and GET THE PICTURE (8) have all been finishing their races off in a manner suggesting they’ll run out 2500m.

Suggested bet: Tarzino the win.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Shards $17-$14, Lizard Island $13-$10 ($2,200 @ $3.97 place, $500 @ $11), Tarzino $2.30-$2.40 ($2,000 @ $3.30, $3,000 @ $2.20), Kia Ora Koutou $9-$7.50 ($2,000 @ $9, $500 @ $9, $330 @ $9, $350 @ $9)

RACE 8

Massive effort by AZKADELIA (14) to finish a close second to Coronation Shallan last Saturday at Moonee Valley. Gave away a big start and had to come wide which was impossible to do. Brilliant three-year-old filly STAY WITH ME (15) was impressive winning the Thousand Guineas. She’s drawn out but that’s where the winners tend to come from in this race. From the past four runnings barrier 13 has won three and barrier 10 the other time. JESSY BELLE (6) is racing in great fashion and deserves a change of luck. She’s out in barrier 14. ROYAL DESCENT (1) is the class mare. Nine starts over 1600m for seven seconds and two thirds. AMICUS (11) has blinkers on first time and has the ability to surprise. MAY’S DREAM (3), SLIGHTLY SWEET (13), LA PASSE (7) and SLIGHTLY SWEET (13) all have strong chances.

Suggested bet: Azkadelia each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Royal Descent $6-$5 ($1,800 @ $6, $2,200 @ $5.50, $1,000 @ $5), Stay With Me* $3.80-$4.50 ($1,200 @ $4.40, $1,000 @ $3.80 - *was $5.50 in All

In market)

RACE 9

Delectation gets his chance to atone his defeats at this track. Picture: Simon Bullard

DELECTATION (6) boasts strong formlines to win this. Last start this track and distance he was mowed down by Chautauqua. This time last year he finished second to Brazen Beau in the Coolmore Stakes. DOTHRAKI (3) resumed with strong win at Rosehill. UNDER THE LOUVRE (5) hasn’t had much luck in recent starts. Drops back to 1200m. Three runs ago he was just beaten this track and distance in the Bobbie Lewis Stakes by track specialist CHURCHILL DANCER (10). ÉCLAIR CHOICE (9) returned to his best when he dead-heated with Lumosty at Caulfield. GENERALIFE (4) has the talent to be in the finish.

Suggested bet: Delectation the win.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Delectation $5.50-$5 ($1,250 @ $5.50, $832 @ $5, $2,000 @ $2 place), Under The Louvre $3.70-$3.80 ($440 @ $3.70, $500 e/w @ $3.80/$1.70)