Melbourne Cup: Form and tips for the great race

UPDATE: THE race that stops the nation is just hours away and this is your must read early form guide to help you find the winner of the 2015 Melbourne Cup.

THE big race is almost upon us and this is the must read form that will help you find the winner of the 2015 Melbourne Cup.

1. SNOW SKY (GB) Sir M Stoute R Moore (16) 58kg

A solid middle distance stayer from England.

Likes: Has won out to 2800 (G2 Yorkshire Cup) and is a dual G2 winner.

Dislikes: The handicapper didn’t miss and will carry 58kg. Has had five attempts at G1 level for just the one place. Solid but not super impressive in the Caulfield Cup. Doesn’t have great wet track form.

Verdict: Plenty of dislikes so I’ll pass here.

2. CRITERION (NZ) D Hayes & T Dabernig M Walker (4) 57.5kg

Australian Derby winner back from racing in the UK and Hong Kong.

Likes: Back from racing the best mile and a quarter WFA horses in the world Criterion made his mark winning the G1 Caulfield Stakes on 10 October beating Caulfield Cup winner Mongolian Khan. Lost few admirers with a solid second placing in the Cox Plate. Derby win over 2500 indicates staying ability.

Dislikes: The handicapper has not missed and Criterion will have to lug 57.5 kilograms for the two miles. The Cox Plate/Melbourne Cup double is extremely hard and truth of the matter is the Cox Plate looked more his go.

Verdict: Has to be a query over two miles with 57.5kg. Will look good at the 2,000 metre mark but I doubt he’ll be anywhere near the lead 1,000 metres after that.

TRACK BIAS: WILL YOUR HORSE GET A FAIR GO AT FLEMINGTON?

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CUP TIPS: OUR EXPERTS’ SELECTIONS

3. FAME GAME (JPN) Y Munakata Z Purton (12) 57kg

Japanese super star and red-hot favourite with punters at this stage.

Likes: Second in the Tenno Sho and enjoyed a warm-up canter in the Caulfield Cup. No issues with the distance having won out beyond 3400 on both attempts and placed once at two attempts at the two miles.

Dislikes: Query might be class. Has had five goes at Group One and only placed once.

Verdict: Extremely short price and the class query is a worry. Has to be included in exotics for safety but not a chance straight up at that price.

4. OUR IVANHOWE (GER) L & A Freedman B Melham (22) 56kg

A German stayer trained by the Freedmans at Flemington.

Likes: Cannot fault his third in the Caulfield Cup where he finished less than two lengths behind the winner, a finish which franked his second in the G3 Bart Cummings lugging 60kg the race before. Impressed in the G1 Von Baden where he lugged 4kg more than Sea The Moon and still won. A respectable sixth in the Japan Cup when on his way to Australia.

Dislikes: Has never won beyond 2400, and never run beyond 2500. Bombed in the L’Arc de Triomphe following his von Baden win. Horror barrier draw.

Verdict: Plenty to like about this horse. Good turn of foot, smart stable and fine form. However, he hasn’t won for close to a year and has drawn the carpark. Had a high opinion but the barrier draw will be hard to overcome. Include for a place in multis if you are going wide.

5. BIG ORANGE (GB) M Bell J Spencer (23) 55.5kg

English import out of Duke Of Marmalade, the Michael Bell trained four-year-old was set for the MC after recording an impressive win in the G2 Goodwood Cup (3200 metres).

Likes:Plenty to like about the Goodwood win where Big Orange beat Trip To Paris over the Melbourne Cup distance. Also has won at 2400, 2700 and 2800 metres so not just a dour stayer.

Dislikes: Followed up the Goodwood win with a shocker in the Lonsdale Cup where he was thrashed by Max Dynamite. Has never raced at Group 1 level. Is a ‘rocks or diamonds’ horse with five wins but just the one place from 13 starts. Has never been in a larger than 12 horses. Horrible barrier.

Verdict: Might be found out by this quality field and has a horrible barrier.

6. HARTNELL (GB) J O’Shea J McDonald (17) 55.5kg

Godolphin horse who ran fifth in Cox Plate

Likes: Confirmed his staying ability with victory in the Queen’s Vase (listed) in June 2014 where he won over the MC distance — and beat Big Orange by 3.4 lengths. Followed that up with victory in the G3 Bahrain Trophy (2600). Brought to Australia at beginning of 2015 and won the G3 Sky High Stakes (2000) and G1 BMW (2400) in his first preparation — beating Who Shot Thebarman both times. Lead up form this prep has been solid and lost no admirers with his grinding 6th in the Turnbull Stakes and 5th in the Moonee Valley showpiece.

Dislikes: Sydney Cup run following his win in the BMW was a tad disappointing where he was beaten six lengths by Who Shot Thebarman. Also failed to fire in big Group One races in the UK where he was well beaten in the St Leger.

Verdict: Quality horse who will have no trouble getting the distance and has enough tactical speed to overcome a pretty rough barrier draw. A lot to like and a definite threat.

7. HOKKO BRAVE (JPN) Y Matsunaga C Williams (20) 55.5kg

The second of the Japanese horses in the field.

Likes: Can stay all day, has had two starts at the distance for one placing (second in the 2014 G1 Tenno Sho). Craig Williams has committed to ride the veteran on the back of Tenno Sho run and that’s a big vote of confidence.

Dislikes: Looked to be travelling better last year when he ran second in the Nikkei Sho and Tenno Sho. Caulfield Cup run was not impressive but his jockey was happy with it.

Verdict: Despite a top jockey and solid staying credentials I’ll give this one a miss, especially from barrier 20.

8. MAX DYNAMITE (FR) W Mullins F Dettori (2) 55kg

A lightly raced French stayer now in the Irish stable of Willie Mullins.

Likes: Beat Trip to Paris and Big Orange in his last start win of the G2 Lonsdale Cup over 3300 metres. Strong staying form over Cup distance with 8 starts for 2 wins and 3 places. Enjoys the Melbourne way of going having won two and placed two from six starts running anticlockwise.

Dislikes: The win before the Lonsdale was a hurdle. Seriously. Has had 6 starts at G1/G2 level for just the solitary win. Those distance stats are padded out with weak hurdle wins/places. Only won three races so can be hard to catch.

Verdict: The Lonsdale Cup win was impressive but other race form just too weak for mine.

9. RED CADEAUX (GB) E Dunlop G Mosse (8) 55kg

Three times the bridesmaid (2014, 2013, 2011) is this the year the old warrior goes one better?

Likes: No queries over the distance or track following three seconds in the race. By all accounts travelled like the veteran he is and working well in quarantine.

Dislikes: Statistically your fourth Melbourne Cup is not going to be your best Cup. Has only had the two runs since April this year and one of those was a far from impressive effort in the Hardwicke Stakes (G2) where he finished 51 lengths from the winner.

Verdict: No doubt we’ve seen the best of Red Cadeaux but are you brave enough to leave him out of your multis? I’m not, especially after such a nice barrier draw.

10. TRIP TO PARIS (IRE) E Dunlop T Berry (14) 55kg

Quality euro raider.

Likes: Distance is obviously not a problem with wins over 3800 and 4000 metres. Also proved he has the toe required to win an Australian style staying race, and that he had acclimatised to local conditions, when half a length second to Mongolian Khan in the Caulfield Cup. Lovely barrier draw. Trainer Ed Dunlop has almost won the cup with Red Cadeaux finishing second three times. This could be the one that goes one better.

Dislikes: Tough to find reasons to knock him. Perhaps a query over ability to match local stayers in a sprint finish but he put those to rest in the Caulfield Cup.

Verdict: Extremely adaptable, has a win and a place at G1 level. Top chance.

11. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (NZ) C Waller B Shinn (6) 54.5kg

A Chris Waller horse looking to improve on his third place in the 2014 Cup.

Likes: Distance obviously no worries with his third in the MC last year and second in the Sydney Cup in April this year. Looks to be in decent form this preparation; finished a length off stablemate Preferment in the Hill Stakes while giving away a kilo, finished nicely in the Turnbull and then closed strongly in the CC when he had no chance thanks to a horror barrier draw. He also likes the wide open expanses of Flemington with a record of two wins and one place from four starts.

Dislikes: There is very little to dislike at this stage. If you were being picky you could argue that he has a poor G1 strike rate with just the one win and two places from nine attempts but that’s about it.

Verdict: If he draws reasonably he’s a good chance.

12. SKY HUNTER (GB) S Bin Suroor W Buick (7) 54kg

The second Godolphin hope, a lightly raced stayer.

Likes: Originally trained in France, Sky Hunter impressed with third in the G1 French Derby in 2013 and then secured his spot in the Cup with a win in the G2 Dubai City of Gold (2400). Has an exceptional strike rate with seven wins and two places from 11 starts. Will likely go into the Cup first-up and has an excellent record fresh.

Dislikes: Has only had the one G1 start (in 2013), since then has been running in significantly lower grade.

Verdict: Query over the quality of the fields he has been beating. Is definitely the second string to the Godolphin bow and won’t be in my multis.

13. THE OFFER (IRE) G Waterhouse D Oliver (13) 54kg

Gai Waterhouse’s Melbourne Cup hope, will carry 54kg in the big race.

Likes: Ground the opposition down to win the 2400 metre Bendigo Cup on Wednesday 29 October. Distance no problem as won the 2014 G1 Sydney Cup (3200m) by four lengths.

Dislikes: Form in lead-up to the Geelong Cup has not been overly impressive finishing out of the money in Listed and G3 company. Weighted to best of ability and not sure the old fella is in that kind of form this preparation.

Verdict: You know Gai’s horse will be tough and he can stay the distance but the form isn’t there for mine at this weight so I’ll pass.

14. GRAND MARSHAL (GB) C Waller J Cassidy (15) 53.5kg

This former UK stayer is now in the Chris Waller stable.

Likes: Locked in for Melbourne Cup after he beat Who Shot Thebarman to win the G1 Sydney Cup (3200) in April. Can handle the Melbourne way of going with a win and a place from three starts running anticlockwise. Caulfield Cup run was far from the worst with Grand Marshal making steady ground over the last 400 and then blocked for a run in the final furlong.

Dislikes: Not a consistent type so punters can find him hard to follow.

Verdict: Would be a fairytale for ‘The Pumper’ to farewell racing with another Melbourne Cup win and you could do a lot worse at the price.

15. PREFERMENT (NZ) C Waller H Bowman (11) 53.5kg

Chris Waller’s Victoria Derby (2014) winner.

Likes:Won the Vic Derby last year and is in fine form this preparation. Won the G2 Hill Stakes in September and franked that with a big win in the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington on 4 October.

Gets into the Cup carrying 53.5kg and loves the Flemington course where he has two wins from two starts. Will have the services of top jockey Hugh Bowman on the day.

Dislikes: Not many

Verdict: Battled home to finish ninth in the Cox Plate but much better suited in the Cup. Perfect barrier draw. Is my top pick.

16. QUEST FOR MORE (IRE) R Charlton D Lane (21) 53.5kg

An Irish-bred stayer trained by Roger Charlton.

Likes: A horse that will definitely see out the two miles carrying a featherweight of 53.3kg available at the inflated odds of 61/1 — plenty to like there. Beat fancied rival Trip To Paris in the G2 Goodwood Cup (3200m) in his last start before heading to Melbourne and knocked off Max Dynamite in the race before over the same distance. Has had four starts over the MC distance and never missed a place. Has had a run in Australia prior to the Cup which is a bonus for any foreign raider … more on that below though.

Dislikes: Had a shocker in the Geelong Cup on 21 October. Started from a wide gate and never found the fence running wide throughout to finish 16th. Drawn wide again.

Verdict: I was prepared to ignore the Geelong run and put this guy in my multis as his form around fancied runners is spot on and he’ll go the distance — then he drew horribly (barrier 21). A bargain at the price but I think the draw might ruin his chances.

17 ALMOONQITH (USA) D Hayes & T Dabernig D Dunn (10) 53kg

The 2015 Geelong Cup (2400) winner earned a kilogram penalty for his win over Dandino and looks sure to start in the MC.

Likes: The Geelong Cup has proven a rich source of Melbourne Cup winners with Americain (2010) and Dunaden (2011) doing the double recently. Finished with a strong run to win the Geelong Cup and this combined with his previous win at 2800 metres indicates distance shouldn’t be a worry.

Dislikes: Has never won or placed above Group 3 level.

Verdict: Form prior to the Geelong Cup was just fair when well held in The Metropolitan. The Geelong Cup has provided plenty of winners lately but there are real class queries here. Place at best.

18. KINGFISHER (IRE) A O’Brien C O’Donoghue (9) 53kg

The second of the Aidan O’Brien trained imports.

Likes: Booked his start in the MC with a strong second in the 4000 metre G1 Ascot Gold Cup (where he was pipped by Trip to Paris) so distance is clearly not a problem. Lovely barrier.

Dislikes: Can really mix his runs. The Gold Cup win was followed by a third (out of five) in the St Leger trial where he finished 16 lengths behind the winner and then he finished 43 lengths back in the St Leger itself. Has had 11 starts at Group level for no wins and just four places.

Verdict: Taken on its own the Gold Cup placing would suggest a horse worth following. However, he seems a horse that needs luck to go his way and in a big Melbourne Cup field full of Group performers you need to make your own luck. Pass.

19.PRINCE OF PENZANCE (NZ) D Weir Ms M Payne (1) 53kg

A lightweight chance trained by Darren Weir who ran second in Moonee Valley Cup.

Likes: A seasoned veteran with a reasonable strike rate (6w-8p from 23 starts) who gets in with a very low weight. Only finished half a length off The United States in the Moonee Valley Cup and gets a half kilogram swing in the weights in the Cup from that race. Has a great relationship with jockey Michelle Payne who has ridden him in all but one of his starts.

Dislikes: Class an obvious query with just the one Group One start (the 1400m Memsie). Only travelling fairly this preparation.

Verdict: Even with the light weight it is hard to see him troubling many in the Cup.

20. BONDI BEACH (IRE) A O’Brien B Prebble (18) 52.5kg

Extremely lightly raced 3 y/o from Ireland, he will be having just his sixth start when he jumps in the Melbourne Cup.

Likes: Beautifully bred stayer (Galileo out of a Danehill mare) who was set for Melbourne after a grinding second in the G1 St Leger last start. Excellent strike rate, never out of a place. Trainer Aidan O’Brien knows how to travel a horse and get it ready for a big race.

Dislikes: Young and green. Never been in a field larger than nine, and that was a maiden.

Verdict: Huge potential but just cannot see him making history and winning at this young age.

21. SERTORIUS J Edwards C Newitt (5) 52.5kg

Veteran 8 year-old with Craig ‘Froggy’ Newitt on board.

Likes: Ran third in the Sydney Cup in April 2014 so distance shouldn’t be a concern. Recent form has not been inspiring having failed to run a place in any race this preparation but he has been finishing strongly looking like a horse wanting more distance.

Dislikes: That form this preparation — I would have liked to see a little more.

Verdict: Can stay, has a nice barrier and no weight for an old stager so he’s a chance to run some sort of race at big odds.

22. THE UNITED STATES (IRE) R Hickmott J Moreira (3) 52.5kg

Mooney Valley Cup winner is another from the Lloyd Williams stable.

Likes: Made the most of a fast tempo to smash the course record in his G2 Moonee Valley Cup (2500m) win. Earned a 2.5kg penalty for that run but still gets in with a very light weight.

Dislikes: Has never had a run at G1 level and the bulk of his runs are at distances far short of the Cup.

Verdict: The Moonee Valley Cup win was impressive, but I think he’ll be found out at Group One level. Pass.

23. EXCESS KNOWLEDGE (GB) G Waterhouse K McEvoy (24) 51kg

The second Waterhouse horse and top jockey Kerrin McEvoy on board.

Likes: Impressive Cup trial finishing second in the Group 2 Herbert Power. Qualified for the Cup with his win in the Lexus Stakes on Saturday where he was lucky to survive a protest.

Dislikes: Has never missed the money in four starts over 2400-2500 metres but in his one start longer than that he was trounced in the Group One St Leger. Drew barrier 24 so already started behind the field.

Verdict: Despite the light weight and top jockey I think the distance and barrier will find him out. Pass.

24. GUST OF WIND (NZ) J Sargent C Schofield (19) 51kg

Lightly raced mare trained by John Sargent.

Likes: Won the G1 ATC Oaks (2400) in April this year beating the very smart Cox Plate-winning filly Winx by 2.5 lengths. Very nice MC trial with a fighting fourth in the Caulfield Cup.

Dislikes: Form prior to the CC was poor. Has raced in G1 company three times since the Oaks and not recorded a win or place. Has had four runs at the Melbourne way of running and hasn’t recorded a win or place. Tough barrier draw.

Verdict: Distance is the major query. However, her class was franked by Winx’s dominant Cox victory and the Caulfield Cup run was solid. Had her penned in as a roughie to include in multiples but the barrier draw has me wary.

Originally published as Melbourne Cup: Form and tips for the great race