Ultimate Anzac Day guide: Best bets, race-by-race analysis for Flemington and Rosehill Gardens
Anzac Day is a huge day of racing at Flemington and Rosehill Gardens. See who TAB tipping guru Nick Quinn and Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley are backing.
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TAB punting guru Nick Quinn is banking on Gai Waterhouse’s recent impressive strike-rate in the VRC St Leger to continue, while Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley is turning to our reigning Melbourne Cup champ to get the job done.
Manley says Vow And Declare is simply the best stayer in the land and should prove too strong for his rivals at Flemington.
Check out below what else they like on Anzac Day.
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BEST BET
VOW AND DECLARE (R4, No.1 $2)
Australia’s best stayer who returns to the scene of his Melbourne Cup victory. He’s well in on the weights with 61 kilos only four more than his nearest rival and eight more than the lightest weighted horse.
NEXT BEST
ESPERANCE (R7, No.13 $5)
Smart horse who races well fresh. He likes the straight and there’s a stack of speed in this which will suit him.
VALUE BET
SIGN SEAL DELIVER (R6, No.7 $14)
He’s always shown staying promise and he finally put it together with his swoop home victory to win his maiden at Sale last start over 2200m where he recorded the fastest last 200m. 2800m should be right up his alley.
BEST ROUGHIE
DEBT AGENT (R8, No.2 $16)
Former Singapore star who flew home two starts ago at Flemington to finish fourth behind Wild Planet over 1400m. He then didn’t fire second up in the Bendigo Mile where he gave away too big a start. Earlier in the day his stablemate, also in the Jim Conlan stable BEAU BALMAIN (R4, No.10) $51 also should run a cheeky race at big odds.
THE TRAINER
ADRIAN BOTT
SCHOLARLY (R4, No.13 $101)
“He’s capable on his day but he’s going through the motions a little bit. He’s having a jumps preparation and would need to lift.”
THE LIFELINE (R5, No.2 $7.50)
“He’s a tough honest horse who is excellent condition. We think he’ll be suited by the slight step up in distance. He makes his own luck in front and he’ll run a big race.”
SACRAMENTO (R6, No.4 $5.50)
“He’s settled in well in Melbourne. He’s had the advantage of being prepared and having raced in Melbourne before. He’s fit and he’s got the right profile to run a big race as he’s an out and out stayer. His Derby run was an excellent one for a race of this nature.”
THE JOCKEY
JORDAN CHILDS
Jordan Childs has three rides and they all have claims. They are MIDTERM (R4, No.4 $17), SIGN SEAL DELIVER (R6, No.7 $14) and RUPTURE (R8, No.11 $4.20).
EARLY QUADDIE
1,2,3,4,5,6,7/3,6,7,12/1,2,5,8,11/1,11
$100 flexi for 41.66%
QUADZILLA WITH MICHAEL MANLEY
FIRST LEG: RACE 5 3.25pm
This looks the easiest leg so take only two horses. THE LIFELINE (2) is dependable. He’ll lead and could control the race, while HIGHLAND JAKK (10) certainly gets his chance.
1st Leg: 2,10
SECOND LEG: RACE 6 4pm
It’s the VRC St Leger and over the years there’s been some blow outs so take several in this leg. Take the two horses which contested the Australian Derby in CHAINS OF HONOUR (1) and SACRAMENTO (4). SIGN SEAL DELIVER (7) is a promising stayer. Add ROYAL CROWN (2), COIN COLLECTOR (3), TARN’S PRINCE (8) and BELLX (11).
2nd Leg: 1,2,3,4,7,8,11
THIRD LEG: RACE 7 4.35pm
The Tasmanian winning machine THE INEVITABLE (1) is a must have. ESPERANCE (13) races well down the straight and also first-up. Add two value runners in MISS IANO (8) and PREZADO (12).
3rd Leg: 1,8,12,13
FOURTH LEG: RACE 8 5.10pm
Difficult race to end the Quaddie so go wide. Take DEBT AGENT (2), KENTUCKY BREEZE (3), SIKANDARABAD (4), MASCULINO (8), HANG MAN (9), RUPTURE (11), STRATEGIC DEMAND (15) and DADOOZDART (17).
4th Leg: 2,3,4,7,8,9,11,15,17
QUADZILLA
1st Leg: 2,10
2nd Leg: 1,2,3,4,7,8,11
3rd Leg: 1,8,11,13
4th Leg: 2,3,4,7,8,9,11,15,17
$100 flexi for 19.84%
SKINNY QUADDIE
Kick off with HIGHLAND JAKK (10) one out. Narrow the VRC St Leger to COIN COLLECTOR (3), SACRAMENTO (4) and SIGN SEAL DELIVER (7). In the third Leg take THE INEVITABLE (1) and ESPERANCE (13) and in the final leg come home with RUPTURE (11) and DADOOZDART (17)
1st Leg: 10
2nd Leg: 3,4,7
3rd Leg: 1,13
4th Leg: 11,17
$25 flexi for 208.32%
BIG6
1,2,8,11/1/4/2,3,10/1,6,8,13/2,3,4,7,8,9,11,15,17
$100 flexi for 17.36%
MANLEY’S FOUR $50 WAGERS BETTING STRATEGY
RACE 4 FLEMINGTON (2800m)
$50 win on VOW AND DECLARE (1) at $2
You don’t get too many opportunities to back a Melbourne Cup winner on Anzac Day at Flemington so make the most of it as he looks a level above his opposition. 61 kilos for what he’s done isn’t a big impost.
RACE 5 FLEMINGTON (1700m)
$25 each-way THE LIFELINE (2) at $4.80/$1.95
The Lifeline will have little trouble leading and from there he’ll take some catching. Although he won last start on a heavy track he also handles dry surfaces. He’s the fittest horse in this and he’ll give a great sight.
RACE 6 FLEMINGTON (2800m)
$30 win SACRAMENTO (1) at $5.50 and $20 win SIGN SEAL DELIVER (7) at $14
The VRC St Leger is a true staying test for the three-year-old’s and this pair looked dyed in the wool stayers. Sacramento fought on after leading in the ATC Derby to finish fifth which reads well for this. Sign Seal Deliver could have more staying potential than his rivals.
RACE 7 FLEMINGTON (1000m)
$25 each-way ESPERANCE ($13) at $5/$1.95
Esperance looks a sound each-way bet. He races well down the straight and also first-up. There’s going to be a lot of speed which will also suit him. He’ll be storming home.
MORE RACING
WEEKEND BEST BETS: FREE HIT WORTH A SHOT
DAVO’S TIPS: CLEAR PASSAGE TO VICTORY
RAY AND DUFF: TIME TO TAKE CENTRE STAGE
RACE 1: 1.05PM ANZAC DAY STAKES (2YO) (1400M)
GRANDSLAM (1) is a powerful looking brother to Jameka and he showed he’s got a lot of talent in his own right with his last start win at Morphettville Parks over 1250m where he sat behind the speed and took inside runs to win comfortably. He’s drawn well and should be on the speed throughout. DIALA (3) led throughout to win at Caulfield in good style. Massive run in the same race from Soul Patch’s half brother INDICTMENT (7) who settled a clear last and ran home strongly to finish. ITZHOT (2) produced the fastest last 600m 400m, 200m for the day when he ran down FLYING AWARD (5) who was forced to race wide to win at Sandown Lakeside last start. AIN’TNODEELDUN (6) finished on well for fourth in that race. SIX SHILLINGS (4) was strong winning his debut at Warrnambool where he led.
SUGGESTED BET: GRANDSLAM EACH-WAY
TAB MARKET MOVERS: 1) Grandslam $300 @ $4.80 | $600 @ $5
3) Diala $6-$6.50-$5.50 $275 @ $6.50
5) Flying Award $5-$4.60 $200 @ $5 | $200 @ $4.80
10) Stonefield $26-$19-$21 $400 x $100 @ $26/$6
11) Wyld Savanna $11-$7 $500 @ $11 | $450 e/w @ $9.50/$3 | $400 x $200 @ $8.50/$2.70
RACE 2: 1.40PM BENCHMARK 84 (1600M)
NAVAISHA (3) sat wide and took off early when tough win over 1600m at Sandown Lakeside over 1600m defeating NERVE NOT VERVE (12). That was only her second run in and she should strip fitter. Nerve Not Verve was first-up on that occasion and she too is a promising mare. Former French mare LAMU (7) worked home strongly from well back to finish fourth beaten 1.05 lengths by Viral over 1300m at Sandown Lakeside at her Australian debut. Step up to 1600m should prove ideal. EXTREME PRIDE (6) won four races in a row last spring before she finished third at Flemington. Has had one run since where she finished a close-up sixth at Geelong behind Black Sail and Aussie Nugget. CRYPTIC JEWEL (13) struggled in Sydney last start over 1900m at Rosehill. Go on close-up fifth at Group 3 level this track and distance before that behind Paint The Town Two. PART TIME LOVER (14) was solid last week when she finished fourth behind Clarice Cliffs last Saturday at Caulfield over 1400m.
SUGGESTED BET: NAVAISHA EACH-WAY
TAB MARKET MOVERS: 4) Shokora $26-$19 $100 x $400 @ $26/$6
13) Cryptic Jewel $8-$7-$7.50 $400 @ $8 | $300 @ $7
14) Part Time Lover $26-$19 $600 x $400 @ $23/$6
RACE 3: 2.15PM AUCKLAND RC TROPHY (1400M, 3YO)
Former Kiwi RUN TO PERFECTION (1) makes his Australian debut for Danny O’Brien. He sat back and wide in recent Flemington jump-out where he worked to the line strongly. He boasts strong form in New Zealand including a second two starts ago behind Catalyst over 1200m. He’s had seven starts for two wins, three seconds, a third and a fourth. OPEN MINDED (2) made it three from three with first-up win at Sandown Lakeside at Benchmark 70 level defeating older horses. KOOWEERUP (3) hasn’t lived up to her potential but is capable of being in the finish. OASIS GIRL (5) strolled in at Caulfield last start when she led throughout on a heavy track. BEEHUNTER (8) didn’t have a lot of luck last week when close-up seventh behind Florent. HEYINGTON STATION (11) tried hard at Caulfield last start when sat wide when third to Leale and REGARDSMAREE (4).
SUGGESTED BET: RUN TO PERFECTION EACH-WAY
TAB MARKET MOVERS: 1) Run To Perfection $8-$6 $400 @ $7
2) Open Minded $10-$8.50 $400 @ $10 | $300 @ $9.50 | $300 x $200 @ $8.50/$2.90
5) Oasis Girl $6.50-$8-$7 $225 @ $8
8) Beehunter $500 and $250 @ $8 | $225 @ $7.50
11) Heyington Station $200 e/w @ $6/$2.30
12) Fundraiser $8.50-$7.50 $200 @ $8.50
13) Tiny Rebel $200 e/w @ $126/$26
RACE 4: 2.50PM WILLIAM NEWTON VC HANDICAP (2600M)
How do you go past last year’s Melbourne Cup winner and Caulfield Cup winner and Australia’s best performed stayer in VOW AND DECLARE (1) who carries 61kg which looks a nice weight for a horse of his quality. He resumed from a spell with a third in the Australian Cup behind Fifty Stars and Regal Power and then he struggled on heavy track in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes where he finished ninth. SKELM (11) flew home for third in the Mornington Cup two starts ago. Then not suited by tight track and drop back in distance when third in the Stawell Cup last start. HAKY (3) ran on well when second-up fifth in the Easter Cup. Last spring he finished third in the Geelong Cup. MIRIMAR (6) out-toughed Inverloch, who then won the Easter Cup, at Caulfield last start over 2400m. JACK REGAN (8) has struck form with wins at his past two starts at Sandown Lakeside. Best roughie is BEAU BALMAIN (10) who led and held on quite well when sixth in the Mornington Cup before not handling wet track at Caulfield.
SUGGESTED BET: VOW AND DECLARE THE WIN
TAB MARKET MOVERS: 1) Vow And Declare $2.90-$2 $500 @ $2.80 | $400 @ $2.70 | $500 @ $2.60 | $1000 and $400 @ $2.50 | $900 @ $2.20 | $2000 and $500 @ $2.15 | $800 @ $2.10 | $3500 and $500 @ $2
3) Haky $200 e/w @ $9/$2.60
8) Jack Regan $200 @ $9
RACE 5: 3.25PM PETER ARMYTAGE HANDICAP (1700M)
Last spring HIGHLAND JAKK (10) finished third to Pancho over 1800m at Flemington. He will strip fitter for his first-up. THE LIFELINE (2) followed his Mornington Guineas third placing with an all the way win at Caulfield last start. TOORADIN (9) finished fourth in that race and will be better suited on a firmer surface. DEBT’N’DEFICIT (11) is racing consistently. YOURDEEL (1) ran well when fourth in the Mornington Guineas before failing on a heavy track at Caulfield. BETCHA FLYING (3) finished fourth in the Adrian Knox Stakes at Randwick last start behind Colette. Last spring she finished second to Akari over 1400m on Melbourne Cup Day. EXCELMAN (12) will be suited by the step up in distance.
SUGGESTED BET: THE LIFELINE EACH-WAY
TAB MARKET MOVERS: 7) Craftsmanship $200 e/w @ $51/$10
RACE 6: 4PM VRC ST LEGER (2800M, 3YO)
SIGN SEAL DELIVER (7) has always shown staying promise and he charged home running the fastest last 200m for the day when he broke his maiden status over 2200m at Sale last start. SACRAMENTO (4) was part of the mad early speed battle which he eventually won as he led until into the straight in the Australian Derby. The others who went forward weakened right out of it but he lugged on well to finish fifth behind Quick Thinker beaten 8.5 lengths. That form reads well for this. In the same race CHAINS OF HONOUR (1) ran on to finish seventh. ROYAL CROWN (2) outstayed several rivals in this when he won over 2400m at Caulfield last start. On that occasion he defeated BELLX (11) and COIN COLLECTOR (3). ST ARNICA (6) and TARN’S PRINCE (8) both finished on in that race to finish fourth and fifth respectively.
SUGGESTED BET: SIGN SEAL DELIVER EACH-WAY
TAB MARKET MOVERS: 3) Coin Collector $7-$6 $1000 e/w @ $6.50/$2.30
4) Sacramento $5.50-$6-$5.50 $600 @ $6 | $300 @ $5.50
8) Tarn’s Prince $13-$14-$13 $400 @ $14
12) Lindelani $26-$19 $500 @ $21
RACE 7: 4.35PM HANDICAP (1000M)
ALL TOO ROYAL (6) has a great record fresh winning his past four first-up runs. Last time in he won the Christmas Stakes at Caulfield. His only start this track and distance followed that run with a third beaten in the closest of photos by Bold Star and Causeway Girl and he carried three and four and a half kilos more than that pair. At his last start he finished fourth in the Oakleigh Plate where he finished strongly. THE INEVITABLE (1) has a great strike rate with eight wins from 12 starts. He was far from disgraced at his last run when he finished eighth in the Newmarket. ESPERANCE (13) races well down the straight. At his last two runs at Flemington he has finished second to Halvorsen and Bold Star. MISS IANO (8) resumed with good first-up fifth behind Diamond Effort at Caulfield. Her previous start was a Group 3 placing at Flemington behind Tofane and Pippie over 1100m. PREZADO (12) races well this track and distance.
SUGGESTED BET: ALL TOO ROYAL THE WIN
TAB MARKET MOVERS: 1) The Inevitable $3.60-$3.90-$3.40
6) All Too Royal $4.60-$5-$4 $250 @ $5
13) Esperance $8-$5.50 $200 @ $7.50
Deductions
8c x 8c for Eduardo
RACE 8: 5.10PM THE LES CARLYON (1700M)
RUPTURE (11) carried a big weight at his last start to win the Warracknabeal Cup first-up over 1600m. He has won five of his last seven starts with an unlucky second to Secret Blaze and a sixth in the Bendigo Cup his other runs. Former Irish galloper DADOOZART (17) has been showing encouraging signs in Flemington jump-outs. He won his last three starts in Ireland in the middle of last year including a last start stakes win at Limerick. KENTUCKY BREEZE (3), SIKANDARABAD (4) and SUPER TITUS (7) finished in the first three placings at Caulfield last start on a heavy track. MASCULINO (8) and STRATEGIC DEMAND (15) finished fifth and sixth in that race. HANG MAN (9) ran on well to finish seventh in the Victoria Handicap. Second-up last preparation he finished an unlucky fourth this track and distance. DEBT AGENT (2) flew home two starts ago to finish fourth behind Wild Planet over 1400m at Flemington.
SUGGESTED BET: RUPTURE EACH-WAY
TAB MARKET MOVERS: 7) Super Titus $200 @ $9
11) Rupture $5-$4.60 $200 @ $5
NICK QUINN’S BEST FOR FLEMINGTON, ROSEHILL
VALUE BET
MANOLO BLAHNIQ
(Rosehill Race 7, No. 14)
LAY OF THE DAY
IN HER TIME
(Rosehill Race 4, No. 1)
FLEMINGTON RACE 6
A traditional staying race for three-year-olds, the VRC St Leger run over 2800m on Anzac Day at Flemington.
Robbie Griffiths-trained Royal Crown opened $3.50 and has been pushed out to $3.60.
He won well at Caulfield last start and again commands respect.
Trainer Gai Waterhouse has an outstanding recent record in the VRC St Leger having won four of the past seven runnings of the race including the past two with Runaway ($7.50) in 2018 and Transact ($5.50) last year.
This year the Waterhouse-Bott stable saddles up Sacramento.
Sacramento has come a long way in a short term this campaign since winning his maiden at Queanbeyan in February before saluting in a class 1 at Canberra.
He caught the eye last start running fifth in the Group 1 ATC Derby behind Quick Thinker and represents a good each-way bet at $5.50.
SUGGESTED BET: SACRAMENTO EACH-WAY
ROSEHILL RACE 7: HAWKESBURY GOLD CUP
A terrific edition of the race where if you find the winner the value will take care of itself.
Amangiri has been backed from $6.50 into $5.
The Hawkes-trained mare resumed from a placing in the Group 2 Emancipation before running in the Group 1 Queen Of The Turf.
The knockout at double-figure odds is Manolo Blahniq.
The Tony Noonan-trained galloper doesn’t have a great winning strike rate with just four victories from 38 career starts but finally looks to have found a race with conditions to suit.
He returns to Rosehill and drops 3.5kg from an encouraging fifth in the Victorian Handicap.
He should settle midfield and has a good turn of foot.
There has been one early bet of $400 at $10 on Manolo Blahniq.
There has been early money for Live And Free, who has firmed from $9 into $7.50 and caught the eye winning a recent a recent Randwick barrier trial.
SUGGESTED BET: MANOLO BLAHNIQ EACH-WAY
