Rosehill tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis
Racing editor Ray Thomas and form expert Ron Dufficy can’t go past the class of In Her Time in the Hawkesbury Crown, while a Victorian visitor has strong claims in the Gold Cup.
SuperRacing
Don't miss out on the headlines from SuperRacing. Followed categories will be added to My News.
The Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy discuss the chances in the eight-race Hawkesbury Gold Cup meeting at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.
SUGGESTED BETS
DUFF’S BEST
Race 6, No.1 DAWN PASSAGE
BEST VALUE
Race 2, No.12 POULTON LE SANDS
RAY’S BEST
Race 7, No.8 AMANGIRI
NEXT BEST
Race 4, No.1 IN HER TIME
Race 3, No.3 OXFORD TYCOON
ROSEHILL GARDENS
Track: Good 4. Rail: True.
R1 (12.50pm): CLARENDON STAKES (1400m)
Dufficy: This is a tough meeting as we are back on a dry track after so many of these have been racing on wet surfaces. The favourite Rock My Wand has the best form, albeit on wet tracks. She has the stronger formlines, is fit and the way she finished off last start gives every indication she will run the 1400m right out. Saffiano was well beaten at his debut but I like the race he comes out of — it was a dry track lead-up and he hit the line nicely. Formentera broke through on a heavy track last start — he looked OK doing so — and the stable is going well. Rousseau finished behind Formentera on debut and is another up-and-coming type.
Thomas: Rock My Wand followed a runaway win at the Rosehill midweeks with a closing effort when fifth to the outstanding Away Game in the Percy Sykes Stakes. The step up to 1400m should suit. Formentera dominated from the front at Warwick Farm. The extra trip might test his stamina but if he gets control in front again, he is going to take running down. Rousseau is a striking So You Think colt and he will improve on his solid debut second to Formentera. He will be finishing hard. Cordyceps Miracle hit the line well when resuming for third at the midweeks.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Formentera $3.50-$3.20 $4500 @ $3.50 | $400 @ $3.30, Rock My Wand $2.70-$2.50 $585 @ $2.60, Saffiano $8.50-$9-$8.50 $350 @ $9 | $300 and $200 @ $8.50
Stream over 50 sports on-demand with KAYO SPORTS on your TV, computer, mobile or tablet. Just $25/month, no lock-in contract. Get your 14-day free trial and start streaming instantly >
R2 (1.25pm): KOKODA HCP (2000m)
Dufficy: I went wide with Poulton Le Sands. I was taken by the way he hit the line at Warwick Farm last start after being held up on the turn. He has a good winning strike rate for a staying type and extra distance suits. Laure Me In hasn’t won in a long time but caught the eye last start after finding trouble. Shadow Flight is flying for the new stable and has to be respected coming back from a Group 3 placing to this grade. Best of the rest is Welsh Legend. She doesn’t win often but does map well from the good draw.
Thomas: Shadow Flight ran a blinder in the Sellwood Stakes, finishing third, beaten a half length, behind Night’s Watch. He has retained a high level of consistency without winning this preparation but he’s drawn to get the right run and the firmer track suits. White Boots is underrated but rarely runs a bad race and comes off a typically tough win at Warwick Farm. Yonkers is an emerging stayer and although he’s had five weeks between runs, he had a barrier trial to tune him up earlier this week. New Arrangement is improving with racing.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Laure Me In $15-$8 $250 x $180 @ $10/$3.40 | $250 @ $10 | $800 x $200 @ $8/$2.90 | $600 @ $8, Loves To Rock $250 @ $14
LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS
R3 (2pm): TOBURK HCP (1500m)
Dufficy: Grand Piano, back in class after being far from disgraced in the Carbine Club Stakes, gets the nod. His previous two wins were good, he has dry track form and is at the peak of his powers. McCormack is a tough horse who had excuses in the Provincial Championships Final when he was off the track all the way. He has a better draw here and Hugh Bowman rides. Jetski, eligible for easier races, found a lot of trouble on the Kensington track last start and should have been in the finish. He does need needs luck from his awkward draw. Word For Word has good second-up form.
Thomas: Oxford Tycoon goes around at double-figure odds and he’s a good gamble in an open race. He has charged home from a long way back at his last two starts, including his luckless third in the Provincial Championships Final after being held up for a run at the top of the straight. Tough, well placed and 1500m is no issue. Grand Piano will need luck from his wide barrier but Nash Rawiller goes back on. Moana Jewel finished just in front of Oxford Tycoon last start and Word For Word is fitter now.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: McCormack $12-$9.50 $500 @ $11, Grand Piano $3.90-$3.40 $1000 @ $3.40, Impactful $19-$17 $200 @ $18
R4 (2.35pm): HAWKESBURY CROWN (1300m)
Dufficy: I’m hoping In Her Time gets more luck this week and can push forward if she jumps cleanly. She had excuses in the Hall Mark Stakes last week when knocked out of the race at the start. This is a lovely race for her. The danger is Naantali first-up for the Maher-Eustace team. She’s trialled nicely and has form around some outstanding horses in her past couple of preparations, so she’s ready to go. Multaja is trialling brilliantly and should finish this race off well. Irithea has had a freshen-up and her greatest asset is she finds the lead on her own.
Thomas: I’m also with In Her Time. She was good late in a strong race last week and this is much easier. Top-class mare who, with any luck in running, will retire from racing on a winning note. Bangkok will enjoy getting back on a firmer track. Irithea is a capable mare and if she does get to control the tempo, she will be hard to catch. Multaja is a good mare on her day, has a good first-up record and is trialling well. She gets back so she needs a solid tempo.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: In Her Time $4-$3.60 $1000 @ $4 | $1500 and $350 @ $3.90 | $400 @ $3.70 | $1000 @ $3.60, Irithea $10-$9 $1000 @ $9, Bangkok $6-$4.80-$5 $400 e/w @ $5.50/$2.20, Dyslexic $14-$15-$14 $200 x $400 @ $15/$4.40, Sweet Scandal $15-$18-$16-$17 $200 @ $18, Nicci’s Gold $200 e/w @ $34/$8, Insensata $250 e/w @ $31/$8, Misteed $500 e/w @ $26/$7
R5 (3.10pm): HAWKESBURY GOLD RUSH (1100m)
Dufficy: Graff looked the real deal early in his career but he has let the side down a bit. Today he has the blinkers, tongue-tie, beautiful draw and a suitable race. All Too Royal is an underrated sprinter who was terrific in the Oakleigh Plate when he had to make his run on the worst part of the track. He races well fresh and has won a few races here. Villami would have been my top selection if Agent Pippa wasn’t in the race. Villami loves to lead but I feel there is a bit of pressure upfront. Handle The Truth has had a freshen-up and could improve dramatically.
Thomas: Graff has underdelivered but he has run some good races at sprinting’s top level. He resumes in a Listed race, the easiest race he has contested in a long while. He’s well drawn, Hugh Bowman goes on, dry track suits and his trials impressed. I take your point about Villami, but she is a talented filly back on top of the ground, which gives her the opportunity to use her brilliant speed. God Of Thunder got to the line well late in the Star Kingdom Stakes. Tactical Advantage has run two competitive races since resuming and the set-up of this race suits him.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Graff $6-$4.40 $450 and $200 @ $6 | $400 @ $5.50 | $250 e/w @ $5.50/$2.30 | $1000 @ $4.80 | $400 @ $4.60, All Too Royal $8-$5-$5.50 $205 @ $7.50 | $200 @ $6.50 | $2000 e/w @ $5.50/$2.20 | $500 @ $5.50, Handle The Truth $1000 e/w and $200 e/w @ $11/$3.60 | $1000 and $200 @ $11, Villami $8-$8.50-$6 $250 e/w @ $8.50/$3.10 | $333 @ $7 | $450 @ $6.50, Agent Pippa $18-$13 $200 e/w @ $17/$5
R6 (3.45pm): HAWKESBURY GUINEAS (2000m)
Dufficy: There is four or five go-forward horses and Dawn Passage will enjoy that genuine tempo. He’s so much better suited on a dry track. Eleven Eleven was good first-up in the Arrowfield Sprint and will benefit from that run. Bandersnatch is trialling well and is a tough horse. Battleground is only out of a provincial maiden but he put a space on them that day and looks very progressive.
Thomas: Eleven Eleven ran some good races in Brisbane last summer against the outstanding Alligator Blood and his first-up effort was good on an unsuitable heavy track. He is better suited on top of the ground. He will need luck from his wide barrier but will be finishing strongly. Battleground impressed winning his maiden last start and although this is a huge jump in grade, he ran a close second to Hightail (Splintex third) in the Listed Gosford Guineas earlier this season — strong form for this race. Dawn Passage is talented and with luck in running he will be hard to hold out. Rule The World is unbeaten first-up and his recent trial efforts have been encouraging.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Dawn Passage $500 @ $8.50, Bandersnatch $13-$9.50 $500 @ $13 | $500, $300 and $200 @ $10, Groundswell $18-$15 $200 @ $18 | $300 @ $16 | $200 @ $15, Battleground $16-$17-$14 $1000 @ $14 | $500 e/w and $400 e/w @ $14/$4.20, Mirra Vision $250 e/w @ $18/$5, Icebath $6-$5 $500 @ $6 | $500 and $200 @ $5
R7 (4.20pm): HAWKESBURY GOLD CUP (1500m)
Dufficy: Melbourne visitor Manolo Blahniq has been excellent at his past two runs — with no luck. The last time he came to Rosehill Gardens he produced the goods and got the money. There is not as much pressure in this race as Amangiri has had to deal with at her first two runs back. She is at her peak. Live And Free trialled really well and resuming at 1500m with no weight suits him. Girl Tuesday is back on a dry track, with a lovely tick-over trial, and we could well see the best of her.
Thomas: Amangiri is my bet of the day. You raised a salient point, Ronnie, with Amangiri likely to be able to control the speed without being unduly pressured in front. She excels third-up and back on a firm track is another boost. Girl Tuesday gets a dry surface and is drawn to get a soft run. If she gets clear galloping room, she will be strong late. Archedemus won this race last year and resumes off an indifferent spring. Drawn inside Amangiri so could even lead or settle in behind her. He’s the forgotten runner. Royal Celebration has drawn the car park but he is rock-hard fit.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Unforgotten $200 @ $19, Girl Tuesday $12-$10 $500 @ $11, Amangiri $6.50-$4.60 $400 @ $5.50 | $900 @ $5 | $300 e/w @ $4.80/$2.10, Royal Celebration $9-$9.50-$8-$8.50 $250 e/w @ $9.50/$3.30 | $300 @ $8, Manolo Blahniq $12-$8-$8.50 $400 @ $10 | $300 x $200 @ $10/$3.40, Live And Free $9-$7 $500 @ $7.50
R8 (4.55pm): GALLIPOLI HCP (1300m)
Dufficy: True Detective has a few convictions but back in grade here is perfect. He had excuses last start when held up and missing the boat. From this draw with James McDonald on, he should be in the finish. Tricky Gal has an amazing record and won with 61.5kg first-up. Segalas will appreciate getting out to 1300m. Twentyfourcarat is capable of sprinting well fresh from a good draw.
Thomas: Tricky Gal did a super job to charge down the centre of the track under her big weight to win first-up at Warwick Farm. She has now won five of her seven starts and has never missed a top-two finish. Nordicus has produced two excellent runs since resuming and watch for him to be finishing hard late. Segalas is another consistent mare who will be competitive and Miss Einstein has shown she can sprint well fresh.
TAB MARKET MOVERS:
Rancho Notorious $34-$41-$34 $200 e/w @ $41/$10, True Detective $5-$3.80 $375 @ $5 | $250 @ $4.60 | $500 and $400 @ $4.40 | $1000 @ $4.20, Miss Einstein $12-$8.50 $200 @ $10, Nordicus $19-$11 $200 @ $17
RAY THOMAS’S INSIDE MAIL
EARLY QUADDIE
Race 1: 1, 2, 3, 6
Race 2: 1, 4, 6, 9
Race 3: 3, 9, 10
Race 4: 1, 2, 4, 6
QUADDIE
Race 5: 1, 2, 8, 10
Race 6: 1, 3, 10
Race 7: 6, 7, 8
Race 8: 2, 3, 13
PRICE CHECK
Laure Me In (race 2) is nearing a win after a narrow loss to Kaapfever before charging home from last when a close seventh to Royal Celebration. Looking for 2000m now and no surprise there has been consistent support for him with the gelding firming from $15-$8 including a bet of $600 at $8.
TRIAL POINTERS
Multaja (race 4) can do her bit to deliver Godolphin what would be their fifth Hawkesbury Crown since they won the inaugural running with Serenissima in 2010. Present day contender Multaja finished a length second in last year’s Crown having won the P J Bell at The Championships at her prior outing. The daughter of Medagalia D’oro is first-up in the Crown, bearing in mind she has won two of her four ‘fresh runs’. On top of that, she looks in great nick judging in her two trials — both at Hawkesbury — a win and a close-up third.
Live And Free (race 7) can count himself unlucky not to have collected a feature race by now but gets his opportunity to do just that in the Group 3 Hawkesbury Gold Cup (1500m) at Rosehill Gardens. The John O’Shea-trained gelding has placed at the track/distance twice in his two prior visits including that nose second to last weekend’s Randwick winner Ranier in the Group 3 Festival Stakes in November. Live And Free has been primed for this mission with two trials, one over 1050m when given an easy time of it behind Trekking and co before upping the ante in his 1200m heat also at Randwick where he charged over the top of his five rivals to win in incredibly impressive style.
WORK WHISPERS
Loves To Rock (race 2) will be a triumph on many levels for trainer Anthony Cummings if she can win here. Cummings not only trains the mare but he part owns her and bred the four-year-old mare. Cummings trained both parents, notably Love My Rock’s sire, Road To Road who apart from winning the Queen Elizabeth Stakes is also the sire of Hong Kong idol Beauty Generation who was originally housed in High Street with Cummings. Loves To Rock is up in class today but is in red hot form winning her last two. Cummings has kept the mare ticking over in the week or so since her booming three lengths win at Wyong.
Grand Piano (race 3) is a superbly bred gelding by the Japanese Group 1 winner Lord Kanaloa whose offspring include a world champion class racehorse in Almond Eye and the reigning Blue Diamond winner Tagaloa. Grand Piano has always been a somewhat underrated horse and gave his usual solid account when beaten less than two lengths when fourth in the Group 3 Carbine Club Stakes over this same trip three weeks ago. Since then, the John Thompson trained gelding has impressed in his work; last Tuesday he went over 1000m in 1.04.51s with a last 400m timed in 23.47s.
BEST BARRIERS
The best barriers at Rosehill Gardens for the last 3 years (in order of wins)
1100m: 4,1,3,5
1300m: 5,8,3,4
1400m: 6,2,4,8
1500m: 2,4,1,5
2000m: 4,3,5,7
THE JUDGMENT
What the experts’ say ...
R4: HAWKESBURY CROWN (1300m)
Paul Joice (Sky Racing): “In Her Time can bow out on a winning note. Huge effort last Saturday when flattened at the start. Perfectly placed under this weight scale. Naantali the knockout hope. Trialled well and has deceptively deep form. Irithea to control from the front.’’
Lizzie Jelfs (Sky Racing): “I’m looking at horses like Irithea. She is a tough mare with a great racing style, she looks to get control of the race and should be hard to run down. Naantali should run well first-up. Bangkok and In Her Time are both racing well.’’
Glenn Munsie (Sky Racing): “Surely In Her Time gets her chance to go out a winner in this. Knocked out of race after start last week but still was very good when coming from tail. Can’t see massive speed here so Hughie can be positive to slot in probably fourth or fifth at worst. Return to a dry track is another huge plus to her chances. Not badly in with 60kgs having won two Group 1 races. Irithea the danger controlling from front.’’
Grant Palmer (bookie): “In Her Time goes around for the final time and she has opened up as a warm favourite with punters. She has had a great career and this is a big class drop but I am keen to take her on. Bangkok is airborne and loves the 1300m and there has been some sharp money for Irithea who won this race last year.’’
Andrew Georgiou (TAB): “In Her Time is the class runner and is holding five times the amount of money than anything else. I don’t mind Sweet Scandal to improve at a price.’’
Verdict: IN HER TIME
R6: HAWKESBURY GUINEAS (1400m)
Paul Joice (Sky Racing): “Eleven Eleven has the outside gate but is the best horse in the race and under set weights can still get away with the win. Icebath out to atone for a luckless run last time. St Covet’s Spirit over the odds.’’
Lizzie Jelfs (Sky Racing): “Bandersnatch put a great record together last preparation and the trials suggest he has returned just as good if not better. Groundswell should run well from the inside gate along with Chat who also gets a good run on the pace.’’
Glenn Munsie (Sky Racing): “Good speed assured here with most all drawn low. Looking to the fillies down the bottom in Icebath and St Covet’s Spirit as my picks. Icebath was a tragedy beaten last start when held up for most of straight. St Covet’s Spirit has been chasing Rubisaki and staying on dry will help her.’’
Grant Palmer (bookie): “Great betting race. The two that interest me the most are Bandersnatch and Rule The World. They have both trialled really well and I will be keeping the pair of them safe.’’
Andrew Georgiou (TAB): “Bandersnatch has been the big firmer with us, having opened up at $13 and now into single figures. Eleven Eleven have also been popular.
Verdict: BANDERSNATCH
R7: HAWKESBURY GOLD CUP (1500m)
Paul Joice (Sky Racing): “Live And Free gets the right conditions and barrier for a first-up assault. Great lightweight hope. Girl Tuesday to improve sharply back on good ground. Royal Celebration in form and remains under-rated.’’
Lizzie Jelfs (Sky Racing): “I’m very keen on Live And Free. I feel he is perfectly placed in this race along with a great draw, his trials have been excellent for him. Amangiri will run well along with Girl Tuesday.’’
Glenn Munsie (Sky Racing): “Can’t see great speed on in this with Amangiri having the opportunity to get complete control. Hasn’t really relished the wet tracks at her first two runs back but still ran well. Has won third up at both her attempts and gets everything to suit here. The Waller pair Girl Tuesday and Unforgotten can both improve on dry.’’
Grant Palmer (bookie): “Amangiri has been one of the best backed all week with punters. I’m looking elsewhere for the winner and Royal Celebration can make it three on the trot. If the track stays dry then Girl Tuesday could unleash a big finish at double figure odds.’’
Andrew Georgiou (TAB): “Great betting race with strong backing for one I like in Amangiri. Others to get early backing are Manolo Blahniq and Live And Free. Girl Tuesday has been a quiet speck, too.’’
Verdict: LIVE AND FREE
SATURDAY EXTRA
SHAYNE O’CASS’S TOP PICKS
GOSFORD
BEST BET
LANU MOANA (Race 3, No.5)
Chris Waller-trained mare by Ocean Park has raced four times and is yet to miss a place, in fact, she has been runner-up on three occasions and finds herself in the perfect race to post a well earned win.
NEXT BEST
CONFINED THOUGHTS (Race 1, No.9)
A striking type, this Jason Coyle-trained filly was put away after a creditable debut run in early January. Trialling in great style ahead of today’s 2020 opener.
VALUE
MIDLAND (Race 2, No.10)
Brazen Beau colt on debut for Kris Lees off some encouraging trials. Has the services of Andrew Gibbons to aid with the wide-ish draw.
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
KEAGAN LATHAM has ridden 10 winners so far this month, six of his last nine are winners. More to come here!
QUADDIE
Race 4: 1, 3
Race 5: 4, 5, 8
Race 6: 1, 2, 14, 18
Race 7: 5, 12, 14
BATHURST
BEST BET
ANDERS (Race 1, No.1)
A $670,000 yearling and half brother to $900,000 yearling Battleground, who has bright prospects in the Hawkesbury Guineas. Anders, a flashy Maher/Eustace colt, was fourth in the Kirkham on debut to See You Soon and has trialled well.
NEXT BEST
NIEWAND (Race 5, No.1)
Stablemate of Anders who was well backed to win first-up in a deep Class 1 at Wyong. Seemed to have his chance but was far from disgraced beaten 3-lengths in that company.
VALUE
ARDSTRAW (Race 3, No.9)
Locally trained Sizzling filly making her debut here off a soft trial at Orange last month. Unknown commodity but in good hands.