Randwick races: Brad Davidson’s tips and extended preview
Sky Racing form analyst Brad Davidson is confident Masked Crusader can continue his meteoric rise through the ranks at Royal Randwick. FULL ANALYSIS & TAB MARKET MOVERS
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Sky Racing form analyst Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, including suggested bets and TAB market movers, for the Gosford Gold Cup meeting at Royal Randwick.
ROYAL RANDWICK
Track: Soft 6. Rail: 3m out.
R1 (11.35am): TAB HIGHWAY HCP (1200m)
OVERVIEW: Pretty open Highway. I was taken by Tejori’s first-up win at Canberra when she ran quicker time than the benchmark race on the day. She looks to have upside and I like the wide draw as she can be tardy out of the gates and then builds into her races. Hellenism was probably in need of the run fresh and should improve second-up from the good draw. Pauper gets the blinkers on and just went down in a photo fresh. Cock Match ran good time when winning over 1000m with a big weight last start and just has the big weight to contend with again.
BETTING STRATEGY: Leaning to TEJORI.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Hellenism $4.60-$5-$4.80 ($1,000 @ $2 PLACE TWICE), Pauper $15-$16-$13, Tejori $6 ($476 @ $5, $750 @ $5, $250 e/w @ $5/$2, $200 e/w @ $5/$2, $1,000 @ $2 PLACE)
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R2 (12.10pm): CENTRAL COAST MARINERS HCP (1200m)
OVERVIEW: Fascinating two-year-old race with form coming from everywhere. There was plenty of style in Kinloch’s debut win, he had to go right back and sailed home to score. He will be better suited at 1200m. Equation looks a nice prospect and he has trialled well on two occasions leading into his debut. Kukeracha will have fans off the Geelong win on debut but the figures were just OK for mine and the form out of the race hasn’t stacked up since. He is a chance but I query whether he wants further. Ocean Emperor is among the other chances.
BETTING STRATEGY: Leaning to KINLOCH.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Kinloch $11-$4.40 ($300 x $200 e/w @ $11/$3.30, $500 @ $5, $500 @ $4.80 TWICE, $500 @ $4.40)
LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS
R3 (12.45pm): TOOHEYS HCP (1100m)
OVERVIEW: Nice little race. Sophiella can run well at each-way odds and she put in a couple of very good performances last prep (her win here over 1000m being one). I expect her to be handy from the gate and her trials have been good. Lashes was really good at the start of last campaign and she will drift back here but will be hard to hold out late. There wasn’t a great deal between Adelong and Lesage last start at Canterbury and there probably won’t be a great deal between them here again. Lesage’s win was super that day but Adelong was first-up off one soft trial and will improve as a result. I just can’t get Adelong near $2.40?
BETTING STRATEGY: SOPHIELLA each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Adelong $3.40-$2.40 ($600 @ $3.40, $500 @ $3.40, $500 @ $3), Sophiella $14-$11
R4 (1.20pm): WESTPAC RESCUE SERVICE HCP (1400m)
OVERVIEW: Hard to go past Subpoenaed. She was enormous behind Rubisaki last start. They tried to get her out in trip this prep but she is better around this distance range and she can reel off a strong last 600m. True Detective, Soldier Of Love, Miss Einstein and Rancho Notorious are all coming through the same race and I’m just thinking that might be the inferior form line here. Miss Einstein would be the pick of those (particularly if the track is still wet).
BETTING STRATEGY: SUBPOENAED to win.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Subpoenaed $4.60-$3.30 ($1,000 @ $4.60, $500 @ $3.90)
R5 (2pm): MASTER BUILDERS HCP (1200m)
OVERVIEW: I don’t normally declare them in Sydney on a Saturday but I think bad luck is Masked Crusader’s biggest danger here. His first-up win was arrogant, 1200m suits and he looks a Group horse taking on horses well exposed. The hardest horse to beat in a Sydney Saturday race for some time and I just hope Tommy Berry uses his speed early and doesn’t get too far back. Mo’s Crown comes out of some good races but draws the car park here and he also drops back to 1200m. The blinkers go on though. This is all about Masked Crusader.
BETTING STRATEGY: MASKED CRUSADER should be very, very hard to beat.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Masked Crusader $2.50-$1.75 ($500 @ $2.50 TWICE, $400 @ $2.50, $400 @ $2.30, $1,500 @ $2.25, $1,000 @ $2.25, $500 @ $2.10 TWICE, $500 @ $2, $1,000 @ $1.95, $500 @ $1.95 MULTIPLE TIMES, $1,200 @ $1.85, $500 @ $1.80 TWICE)
R6 (2.40pm): SIGNARAMA HCP (1800m)
OVERVIEW: I think Loveseat has come back really well this prep and she will be sprouting wings late here. Her sectionals when winning over 1550m second up were very impressive. Laure Me In was a good thing beaten last start and there’s no reason he won’t run well again here. He should get a soft run and just needs the breaks to go close. Gone By was clearly the best run of the race on the Kenso last weekend when a narrow second to Yonkers and the only knock is he has company on speed here. Bottega comes out of a very good rating race but he still does a few things wrong.
BETTING STRATEGY: Leaning to LOVESEAT at this stage.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Loveseat $8-$6
R7 (3.20pm): GOSFORD GOLD CUP (2000m)
OVERVIEW: Competitive Gosford Gold Cup. I think Greysful Glamour is the safe way to go and she just missed in the JRA Plate. She will roll to the lead and give a sight. Yulong Prince comes through the same race and he is a Group 1 winner at 2000m in South Africa. I love the way Aliferous is going but she will have to give them a decent start here, while Bottega must come into calculations if he gets a run and goes this way.
BETTING STRATEGY: GREYSFUL GLAMOUR the horse to beat but ALIFEROUS might get out to a good price.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Greysful Glamour $4.60-$4.20
R8 (4pm): TAKEOVER TARGET STAKES (1200m)
OVERVIEW: This sets up pretty well again for Greyworm providing Murillo doesn’t take him on for the lead. He stacked them and won well last start but he was strong through the line (second quickest last 200m of the race after leading) and should be hard to catch again. Tactical Advantage clocked some monster sectionals when scoring an unbelievable win over 1100m last start. He looks the danger and 1200m should be fine. Deprive was disappointing last start but was going well prior, while Snitz is on the up and does drop significantly in weight.
BETTING STRATEGY: Leaning to GREYWORM but tactics on MURILLO could decide Greyworm’s fate.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Greyworm $3.70-$3.90-$3 ($500 @ $3.90, $550 @ $3.80, $500 @ $3.80, $600 @ $3.70, $1,500 @ $3.30), Snitz $9-$6
R9 (4.40pm): KENTAN MACHINERY HCP (1600m)
OVERVIEW: Grand Piano is the horse to beat but I’m not sure the gap should be as large as it is between him and Rapido Chaparro. The Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott-trained Rapido Chaparro should be able to roll along at his own clip in front and be hard to run down. Grand Piano will be storming late along with Dealmaker who has form around Cascadian at the Randwick mile. They look the main three hopes in the last.
BETTING STRATEGY: RAPIDO CHAPARRO at the value.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Grand Piano $3.20-$2.60 ($455 @ $3.20, $500 @ $2.80)