The Wolf: Soft lead virtually hands the Derby to favourite Thinkin’ Big

PROVIDING the Victoria Derby favourite isn’t attacked from the outset, our expert James Lamb, can see little reason why the colt cannot take out the classic.

THIS year’s Victoria Derby shapes as a real race of tactics, writes The Wolf In Sheep’s Clothing, James Lamb.

If the Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott-trained Thinkin’ Big is able to roll along in front at his own leisure, as he did last start, it’s hard to see him being run down.

THE EARLY OIL: FLEMINGTON TIPS AND ANALYSIS

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Jockey Tim Clark completely dictated terms to suit in the Caulfield Classic, finding the top before slowing the pace in the middle section of the race.

The 2000m event became little more than a dash home and Thinkin’ Big was able to demonstrate a superior turn-of-foot to leave his rivals standing.

He takes on similar opposition here and on face value, it’s difficult to see the likes of Chapada, Sikorsky and Extra Brut turning the tables at level weights.

While last start was a walk in the park for Thinkin’ Big, it was a completely different case in the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes two-back when swamped late by Maid Of Heaven and Aramayo.

On that occasion, Thinkin’ Big was slightly slow into stride and was forced to work hard to get up outside of the leader.

The early work told and he was vulnerable late, peaking on his run as the swoopers descended.

But it’s worth noting that he was second-up from a freshen in the Spring Champion, going from a dry track to a rain-affected surface.

He stripped much fitter last time and www.punters.com.au form analyst James Lamb says there’s no reason why he can’t display further improvement here.

If the favourite is attacked from the outset, it could set the race up for Aramayo or surprise last-start winner Stars Of Carrum to roll over the top.

The latter, a son of Melbourne Cup winner Fiorente, clocked the fastest final 600m, 400m and 200m splits in the Group 2 Vase last Saturday and appears more than capable of running a strong 2500m.

LAST WEEK

Cox Plate trifecta: Invested $100, returned $410.55

Four races: Invested $200, returned $220

Quaddies: Invested $75, bombed out in the last leg

SPEED MAP

Thinkin’ Big should lead ahead of Sikorsky and Savoie out wide. Louie the Legend, Chapada and Tolemac are others that are likely to roll forward early. Aramayo, Stars Of Carrum and Extra Brut map to settle in the last five or six.

$100 BETTING STRATEGY

$65 on THINKIN’ BIG (1) at $3.30

$20 on ARAMAYO (2) at $7

$15 on STARS OF CARRUM (4) at $9

POCKET GUIDE TO THE PUNT

MELBOURNE

JAMES LAMB

VERRY ELLEEGANT (Race 2, No. 2)

Weir filly who won impressively last start despite displaying some questionable racing manners. She takes on pretty much the same field here over the same distance.

HAVASAY (Race 3, No. 9)

No luck last start and his since trialled nicely. He takes on some handy sprinters here but is worth an each-way play at around $16.

Osborne Bulls takes out the Regal Roller Stakes in August.

MICHAEL MANLEY

OSBORNE BULLS (Race 3, No. 1)

His racing style should be suited by the straight. He flew home for third in The Everest.

Value bet: VAASSILATOR (Race 1, No. 2)

SIMON MOY

VERRY ELLEEGANT (Race 2, No. 2)

One of the few runners to make ground that day when successful in the Ethereal Stakes. The one to beat.

Value bet: SUNLIGHT (Race 5, No. 10)

SYDNEY

RAY THOMAS

MAHALANGUR (Race 9, No. 7)

Value bet: SOCIAL ELEMENT (Race 5, No. 2)

ADELAIDE

LINCOLN MOORE

BOX ON COLLINS (Race 6, No. 5)

Plenty to like about his return behind Ruomaza and should have taken plenty of benefit form the outing. Out to the mile and looks the testing material.

Value bet: SAVATAG (Race 5, No. 8)

FOUR RACES TO PLAY

RACE 1 — THE CARBINE CLUB STAKES

WILD PLANET (6) finished 0.6L off Ranier last start but meets that galloper 2.5kg better at the weights in this. The Hawkes gelding appears to have drawn perfectly in barrier four, while Ranier could easily end up settling three or four-back on the fence from the inside alley. ZARGOS (16) looms as a danger at big odds. She hit the line hard for third last start, finishing just behind Khulaasa whose form ties in with Wild Planet and Ranier.

$50 BETTING STRATEGY

$40 on WILD PLANET (6) at $7

$10 on ZARGOS (16) at $19

Verry Elleegant wins the Ethereal Stakes. Picture: Jay Town

RACE 2 — WAKEFUL STAKES

VERRY ELLEEGANT (2) stepped from 1600m to 2000m second-up and refused to settle early, over-racing back on the inside of runners. Once she eventually found a better rhythm and John Allen was able to get her off heels, she put paid to her rivals in the manner of a very talented horse. She should be better for that experience and has drawn perfectly in barrier six. Her run here two-back was outstanding without a great deal of luck.

$50 BETTING STRATEGY

$50 on VERRY ELLEEGANT (2) at $2.05

RACE 3 — THE TAB STAKES

HAVASAY (9) was beaten 4.7L in the Group 2 Schillaci Stakes last start but he would have finished much closer with any sort of luck. The Queensland visitor was making ground from the back until he hit a dead-end with 100m to go. He has since trialled in impressive fashion and the step up to 1200m suits second-up. Hopefully Runson, who has drawn alongside, gives him something to follow down the straight.

$50 BETTING STRATEGY

$25 each-way on HAVASAY (9) at $16/$4.60

RACE 8 — KENNEDY MILE

LAND OF PLENTY (4) is flying this preparation and could easily be four from four (beaten 0.1L and 0.2L in his two losses). The Weir-trained entire was brilliant winning the Group 1 Toorak Handicap over this trip last start, storming home from the back to defeat Hartnell by 1.25L. His stablemate ICONOCLASM (18) looms as a genuine threat if he gains a run off the emergency bench. He has won his last couple in dominant fashion and his Flemington record speaks for itself (3:3-0-0).

$50 BETTING STRATEGY

$40 on LAND OF PLENTY (4) at $4.80

$10 on ICONOCLASM (18) at $14

QUADZILLA

The quaddie looks tough, real tough. You need to trim the fat somewhere and the Victoria Derby looks the leg to do that, with Thinkin’ Big, Aramayo and Stars Of Carrum to carry our hopes and dreams.

LEG 1 (R6)

Wide-open event to kick-off the quaddie. Seasoned mare SHILLELAGH (3) is a Group 1 winner over the Flemington mile and appears to have rediscovered her zest for racing. The lightly-weighted pair of OOHOOD (13) and AMPHITRITE must be included. I AM A STAR (1), INVINCIBELLA (2) and ECKSTEIN (4) also warrant strong consideration. Luck will play a major part in this race, with most of the above likely to settle in the second-half of the field.

SELECTIONS: 1,2,3,4,13,15

LEG 2 (R7)

THINKIN’ BIG (1) looks hard to beat based on his dominant last-start win but you’d imagine he’ll cop a little bit more pressure in the early stages here. If the on-pacers fall in a heap at the clock tower, it might be ARAMAYO (2) and STARS OF CARRUM (4) charging over the top. Both horses performed well in the Group 2 Vase at Moonee Valley last Saturday.

SELECTIONS: 1,2,4

LEG 3 (R9)

Weir appears to hold a very strong hand here, with LAND OF PLENTY (4), CLIFF’S EDGE (11) and ICONOCLASM (18) all worth including. All three were impressive last-start winners. Godolphin veteran HARTNELL (1) looked like he might be coming to the end but his form this preparation has been terrific and he’s drawn favourably here.

Land Of Plenty takes out the Toorak Handicap. Picture: AAP

SELECTIONS: 1,4,11,18

LEG 4 (R10)

Tricky straight-course dash to close. QUILISTA (3) was poorly-placed last start but is much better suited here up in distance. DIVINE QUALITY (11) flies first-up and has drawn to swoop down the grandstand-side rail if that is the place to be. Sydney mares RESIN (6) and I AM EXCITED (4) should be included, while FROM WITHIN (7) is just going too well to ignore.

SELECTIONS: 3,4,6,7,11

FAT QUADDIE: 1,2,3,4,13,15 / 1,2,4 / 1,4,11,18 / 3,4,6,7,11 — Cost $50 for 13.88%

SKINNY QUADDIE: 1,2,3,4,13,15 / 1 / 1,4,11,18 / 3,4,6,7,11 — Cost $25 for 20.83%

Skinny quaddie explanation

Thinkin’ Big looks the most talented horse in the Derby so we’ll bank on his ability getting him home, even if 2500m is uncharted territory.

A CHAT WITH ADRIAN BOTT

Trains in partnership with Gai Waterhouse

GLENN McFARLANE: It’s fair to say that you were literally born into the racing game.

ADRIAN BOTT: Yes, I was born on the bathroom floor at Segenhoe Stud (in the NSW Hunter Valley), which is now Vinery Australia. Racing seemed to be the way it was destined to go for me. I was fortunate enough to grow up at an iconic stud.

GM: Your father had horses with Tommy Smith and Gai Waterhouse, what do you remember of those days?

AB: Unfortunately I never got to meet T.J. But I’ve been fortunate enough to have plenty to do with Gai, and can’t thank her enough for all the opportunities that have come my way.

GM: You’ve been training partners for two years; who beats who to the track each morning?

AB: Gai sets the standard and success doesn’t come in this industry without hard work. We’ve got a hard working team behind us. We keep that instilled in everyone.

GM: Gai always seems upbeat and happy. Are you the same?

AB: I’d like to think you have to carry a positive attitude through everything. But at the same time I like to approach things very factual and I am quite measured in my approach.

GM: You worked with stewards in Sydney for a period in your early years. Does that give you an advantage in protest hearings?

AB: (laughs) It was a fantastic opportunity to learn from one of the best (former chief steward Ray Murrihy). It was just a great eye opener to get an understanding of the rules and regulations surrounding the industry.

GM: Which is the horse that gets you out of bed each morning with a spring in your step?

AB: If a horse like Thinkin’ Big is not getting you to spring out of bed, there is not much hope for you in the industry.

GM: What would a Melbourne Cup win in partnership with Gai mean to you?

AB: Gai said that is a race that changed her life and for someone to say that after 20 years of training, having won 130-plus Group 1 wins, it must be very special.

GM: Best of luck with Runaway in the Cup on Tuesday, and Thinkin’ Big in the Derby on Saturday, and potentially the Cup on Tuesday.

AB: Thanks.

BEST BET

THINKIN’ BIG, RACE 7, NO. 1

“He’s our best. We’ve always had a very good opinion of him.”

FLEMINGTON RUNNERS ON SATURDAY

Northwest Passage (Race 4, No. 11)

Shumookh (Race 6, No. 9)

Thinkin’ Big (Race 7, No. 1)

Siege Of Quebec (Race 8, No. 10)