Derby Day in spotlight as Michael Manley analyses the main hopes

VICTORIA Derby Day is one of the biggest days of the year and Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley reckons punters can strike a blow with a James Cummings’ runner. So does James. See what he says.

VICTORIA Derby Day is one of the great if not the greatest race day for the year in Australia with four Group 1 events and the last ditch attempt for many stayers to gain a run in the Melbourne Cup by winning the Lexus.

Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley casts his eye over the Group 1s and the Lexus Stakes.

VOTE NOW: WHO IS YOUR FAVOURITE RACEHORSE?

BEST BET

OSBORNE BULLS (R3, No.1)

VALUE BET

VAASSILATOR (R1, No.2)

EARLY QUADDIE

1,2,4/1,4,8,10,2,4,6,7,8,9,10,11,12/1,2,5,10

$100 flexi for 23.14 per cent

BIG6

2,4,10/1,2,10/1,3,5/1,4,14/4,11,16/4,9,11,17

$100 flexi for 10.28 per cent

QUADDIE

RACE 6

1,3,5,13,14,15,16

RACE 7

1,2,4,14,17

RACE 8

1,4,11,16,18

RACE 9

1,4,7,9,11,17

$100 flexi for 14.88 per cent

RACE 1: 11.45AM THE CARBINE CLUB STAKES (1600M)

ALTHOUGH VASSILATOR (2) was beaten 4.5 lengths he ran into a superstar in The Autumn Sun. He was able to hold off a Group 1 winner Oohood for third in the Caulfield Guineas. He can still do a lot wrong as he even did in that race as he was slowly away and covered ground. He’s won two of his three starts at Flemington. Hard to go past RANIER (5) who charged home to break his maiden status over 1400m at Caulfield. He should relish 1600m. WILD PLANET (6) defeated him two starts ago over 1400m at Flemington but he was unlucky on that occasion. Strong third last start at Caulfield. His stablemate IRUKANDJI (1) didn’t handle the wet track in the Spring Championship. Previous Sydney form sound,

TYULONG JANUARY (8) split that pair last start. MR EXCLUSIVE (10) wasn’t disgraced

in the Caulfield Guineas. ZARGIS (16) is a filly on the up.

THE TRAINER: JAMES CUMMINGS

RANIER: “The Carbine Club is a very hard race to win, and if he could to do that then he’s going to be a Guineas horse next autumn. I haven’t raced him over 1600m before as I haven’t need to. He was able to get into a beautiful rhythm in the Listed Gothic Stakes and once he went for home he found something.”

THE BET: VASSILATOR EACH-WAY (CONFIDENCE RATING: 8.5/10)

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

Good ‘N’ Fast $12-$11-$9.50 ($250 @ $12 TWICE, $1000 @ $11, $1200 @ $9.50)

Ranier $4.40 unchanged ($400 @ $4.40, $250 e/w @ $4.40/$1.95)

Wild Planet $10-$7 ($230 @ $10, $300 @ $8.50, $1150 @ $7.50, $2500 @ $7.50, $1100 @ $7, $500 @ $7, $400 @ $7, $200 e/w @ $6.50/$2.50)

Adana $8.50-$10 ($550 @ $9, $500 @ $9, $500 x $2,000 e/w @ $9/$3)

RACE 2: 12.20PM MUMM WAKEFUL STAKES (2000M)

Hard to go past VERRY ELLEEGANT (2) who over-raced in the Ethereal Classic but when she got to the outside she left her rivals in her wake. She’ll be much better suited at Flemington. ARISTIA (4) tried hard behind her when she ran second. Winkers go on first time. SIZZLEME (5) finished on well for third in the same race.

EL DORADO DREAMING (1) gave away a big start on a day which played to on-pacers but finished on strongly for third last Saturday at The Valley behind Mystic Journey. QALIFA (3) wasn’t disgraced last week when fourth against older mares at The Valley.

THE TRAINER: DAVID EUSTACE

YULONG METEOR: “She was ridden a bit upside down last time. We’ve put blinkers on her hoping that will straighten her up as she’s still a bit immature. She needs to bounce back.”

THE BET: VERRY ELLEEGANT THE WIN (CONFIDENCE RATING: 9/10)

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

El Dorado Dreaming $7-$6.50

Verry Elleegant $1.90-$2 ($1000 @ $2, $500 @ $2, $300 @ $2)

RACE 3: 1PM THE TAB STAKES (1200M)

OSBORNE BULLS (1) racing style should be suited by the straight. He flew home for third at his last start for third in The Everest behind Redzel. He’ll need the speed on though but that shouldn’t be a problem as RUNSON (10) flew last Friday night at The Valley smashing the course record by a half a second and also ran .59 second faster than the Manikato Stake run a half an hour later. MISSROCK (4) resumed with a fast finishing third to Ball Of Muscle at Caulfield and she ran the fastest last 400m for the day. She ran second in this race last year. Queensland mare WINTER BRIDE (8) is in cracking form and she ran a half a second faster than Sunlight did on the same day.

THE TRAINER: JAMES CUMMINGS

OSBORNE BULLS: “He’s flying, he came out of The Everest as though he hadn’t had a run.

We’ve dropped him back to a handicap and he goes up a couple of kilos for his good performance in The Everest which was the best third-placing of any horse I’ve trained. I’m looking forward to see how he handles the straight track. It opens up the options for us, maybe here, or maybe abroad.”

THE BET: OSBORNE BULLS THE WIN (CONFIDENCE RATING: 9/10)

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

Osborne Bulls $3.20-$3.10 ($1,175 @ $3.20, $750 @ $3.20, $500 @ $3.20, $300 @ $3.20, $250 @ $3.20, $200 @ $3.20, $900 @ $3.10, $750 @ $3.10, $716 @ $3.10, $300 @ $3.10)

Runson $6-$4.80 ($600 @ $6)

RACE 4: 1.40PM LEXUS STAKES (2500M)

JAAMEH (10) loves this track and distance where he’s had three starts for two wins and a last start where he went down in a photo to one of the key fancies in the Melbourne Cup, Avilius and his jockey on that occasion protested. English stayer A PRINCE OF ARRAN (2) made a sound Australian debut when third in the Herbert Power Stakes behind Yucatan. SIXTIES GROOVE (4) emerged during winter with back to back wins at Flemington running good sectionals each time. He was strong winning the Moe Cup last start. RUNAWAY (8) was strong winning the Geelong Cup last start over stablemate NORTHWEST PASSAGE (11). They’ll both push forward and give a good sight. If they run along don’t be surprised if YOGI (12) gets over the top of them if the pace is on.

THE TRAINER: TRENT BUSUTTIN

RISING RED: “We were shocked by his last run as he’s such a genuine horse but he had an excuse as he pulled a hamstring. I’ll be very surprised if he doesn’t run well.”

THE BET: JAAMEH THE WIN (CONFIDENCE RATING: 8.5/10)

SUGGESTED BET: JAAMEH EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

A Prince Of Arran $5-$4 ($500 @ $5, $500 @ $4.60)

Sixties Groove $7-$8.50 ($3000 @ $7)

Gallic Chieftain $9-$13

Jaameh $5.50-$4.60 ($400 @ $4.80, $1500 @ $4.60, $310 @ $4.60, $570 @ $4.60,

$250 e/w @ $4.60/$1.90)

RACE 5: 2.25PM COOLMORE STUD STAKES (1200M)

WRITTEN BY (1) is almost under estimated. He’s won six of his seven starts and his only loss was when he finished fourth in the Golden Slipper. He’s been set for this and he’s been impressive winning his two starts this time in. Sydney colt ZOUSAIN (2) was run down by his superstar stablemate The Autumn Sun when a close second to him in the Golden Rose. Stablemate LEAN MEAN MACHINE (4) finished fifth in that race but defeated Zousain in Brisbane during the winter. LONG LEAF (5) ran on well for third in the Caulfield Guineas Prelude and has been freshened for this race. ENCRYPTION (3) rocketed home to win the Danehill Stakes here two starts ago before he finished second in the Blue Sapphire Stakes to Written By.

THE TRAINER: GRAHAME BEGG

“This is the race he’s been set for nine months and he’s had a near faultless preparation. He jumped-out well down the straight last week.”

THE BET: WRITTEN BY THE WIN (CONFIDENCE RATING: 9/10)

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

Written By $4-$4.20 ($300 @ $4.20)

Zousain $3.80-$4-$3.90 ($300 @ $4, $200 e/w @ $4/$1.65, $2000 @ $3.80)

Sesar $8.50-$7.50 ($600 e/w @ $8/$2.40, $1000 @ $7.50)

Sunlight $4.80-$4.60

RACE 6: 3.05PM EMPIRE ROSE STAKES (1600M)

ALOISIA (5) showed a return to her form of last spring at her last start when she powered home for third behind SHUMOOKH (9) who led throughout to win the Tristarc Strakes at Caulfield. She ran the fastest last 400m for the meeting and she will love 1600m. SHILLELAGH (3) has rocketed home for fourths in feature mile races at her past two starts in the Epsom and the Toorak Handicap. She won the Kennedy Mile at this meeting last year. I AM A STAR (1) is racing in great fashion and won this race two years ago. The four three-year-old fillies who will carry 50kg – AMPHRITRITE (15), FUNDAMENTALIST (16), SEABROOK (14) and OOHOOD (13).

THE TRAINER: DAVID EUSTACE

ALOISIA: “This is the race she’s been set for and everything looks ready. She’ll need to get cover from her gate and if she does she’ll fly home.”

THE BET: ALOISIA EACH-WAY (CONFIDENCE RATING: 7.5/10)

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

I Am A Star $9.50-$12

Shillelagh $8.50-$7.50 ($1,000 @ $7.50)

Aloisia $8.50-$9 ($1000 @ $9, $400 x $200 e/w @ $9/$3.10)

Oohood $10-$8.50 ($500 @ $9)

Macca's running hot this spring with two winners and two thirds and growing in confidence by the day. Here is his Victoria Derby selection.

RACE 7: 3.50PM AAMI VICTORIA DERBY (2500M)

SAVVY OAK (14) shapes as if he’ll relish the 2500m. He’s finished off strongly at his past two runs, the last one when fourth last week behind STARS OF CARRUM (4) in the Moonee Valley Vase last Saturday. He may have finished closer as he was held up for a run on turning. Stars Of Carrum hit the line like a horse who will malso relish the 2500m when he grabbed SAVOIE (7). ARAMAYO (2) ran on strongly for third in the same race after being trapped wide. THINKIN’ BIG (1) controlled the race from the front when an easy winner of the Caulfield Classic. He’s going to be hard to beat. HOME GROUND (5) and FARROOQ (12) quinealled the Geelong Classic last start.

THE TRAINER: TRENT BUSUTTIN

SAVVY OAK: “I’m surprised at his odds as I think he’s a genuine each-way chance especially if he jumps away well. The further the better for him. LOUIE THE LEGEND was disappointing last start but he worked too hard in the early stages. He’d done nothing wrong before that but he might lack the class of some of his rivals.”

THE BET: SAVVY OAK EACH-WAY (CONFIDENCE RATING: 6/10)

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

Thinkin’ Big $3-$2.90 ($7000 @ $3, $5000 @ $2.90, $2115 @ $2.90, $1000 @ $2.90,

$1000 @ $2.80)

Aramayo $7-$6.50

Stars Of Carrum $13-$9 ($200 e/w @ $9/$3)

Farooq $17-$14

RACE 8: 4.35PM KENNEDY MILE (1600M)

LAND OF PLENTY (4) sat wide and won the Toorak Handicap with something in hand last start. He’s flying and he’ll take holding out again. Stablemate PEACEFUL STATE (16) will relish the step up to 1600m. He wasn’t suited by the pattern of racing when he finished fifth to SIRRCONI (13) at Caulfield last start but worked home well. His last appearance this track and distance he finished second to Grunt in the Australian Guineas. The other Weir representatives CLIFF’S EDGE (11) and ICONOCLASM (18) both won impressively at Moonee Valley last weekend. HARTNELL (1) is a modicum of consistency and he looks the best chance to upset the Weir runners.

THE TRAINER: JAMES CUMMINGS

HARTNELL: “He has a 2.5kg weight turnaround with Land Of Plenty from the Toorak Handicap.That should make things pretty interesting back at Flemington where Hartnell’s probably a length better horse.”

THE BET: LAND OF PLENTY THE WIN, SAVER PEACEFUL STATE THE WIN (CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 8.5/10)

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

Comin’ Through $19-$23

Noire $13-$10

Land Of Plenty $4.20-$4.40-$4.20 ($500 @ $4.40 TWICE, $200 e/w @ $4.40/$2, $605 @ $4.20, $400 @ $4.20)

RACE 9: 5.20PM FURPHY SPRINT (1100M)

PETRELLE (17) worked hard in the early stages which brought her underdone when second to the South Australian iron horse Casino Wizard last start. She can take a sit off the fast speed in this. I AM EXCITED (4) flew home to win over 1200m at Flemington last start rocketing home when she got to the outside. DIVINE QUALITY (11) likes this track and distance and her barrier draw of 17 suits her style of racing. BOOKER (1) is a classy mare who loves the straight. SHE KNOWS (9) finished off strongly for second behind Eduardo at Caulfield last start. Heaps of chances headed by James Cummings’ pair of RESIN (6) and JORDA (5), SNITTY KITTY (2), QUILISTA (3) and FROM WITHIN (7).

THE TRAINER: HENRY DWYER

SNITTY KITTY: “She’ll run really well. She was good first-up but flat second-up. We’ve freshened her up and she’s got plenty of energy. She’s in good order.

THE BET: PETRELLE EACH-WAY, DIVINE QUALITY EACH-WAY (CONFIDENCE LEVEL 5/10)

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

Resin $7.50-$5.50

Petrelle $13-$11

MANLEY’S EARLY LOOK AT PROGRAM

(*Selections subject to chance as meeting nears)

EARLY BET

VERRY ELLEEGANT (R2, No.2)

Leggy filly who overraced in the early stages but still proved too good when successful in the Ethereal Stakes at Caulfield. Should be even better suited over 2000m at Flemington and she looks a staying star in the making.

DERBY DAY BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS

NEXT BEST

WRITTEN BY (R5, No.1)

He’s had the perfect preparation for this race. He’s a star with six wins and a fourth in the Golden Slipper from seven starts. He can dominate this race from on the speed.

Written By will be hard to beat in the Coolmore Stud Stakes. Picture: AAP

VASSILATOR (R1, No.2)

Hard to go past his second to The Autumn Sun in the Caulfield Guineas where he finished on well after over-racing early. He’s won two out of three at Flemington.

OSBORNE BULLS (R3, No.1)

He’s a winner with eight wins from 13 starts. Ran on strongly to finish third in The Everest. The straight should suit him.

VALUE BET

SAVVY OAK (R7, No.14)

Been running on strongly in his races and 2500m should suit. Stable prepared Sangster to win in 2011 who was also by Savabeel.

THE FEATURE RACES

VICTORIA DERBY (2500m, 3YO)

THINKIN’ BIG: Strong win in the Caulfield Classic when he controlled the race throughout from the front. He’s won four of his six starts and his pedigree suggests he’ll run the distance right out.written

ARAMAYO: Didn’t lose any admirers with his third in the Vase at The Valley on Saturday as he was trapped wide throughout. He finished second before that in the Spring Champion Stakes, a race in which Thinkin’ Big finished third.

CHAPADA: Lightly raced Mike Moroney gelding who finished on well for second behind Thinkin’ Big in the Caulfield Classic. Shapes as if 2500m will suit. James McDonald will ride.

EXTRA BRUT: Strong winner over 1800m at Flemington before he didn’t handle the wet track at Caulfield last start. Darren Weir trained galloper who can bounce back.

STARS OF CARRUM: Son of Fiorente, who finished hard to defeat Savoie to win The Vase at The Valley on Saturday. 2500m should be right up his alley.

SAVVY OAK: He’s always running on and this stable knows how to win a Victoria Derby. He’ll relish the step up to 2500m.

BEST VALUE

ALESSANDRO: Giant son of Fiorente who away impressive defeating older horses in a Benchmark 64 over 2025m at Cranbourne last start. He’ll love Flemington and 2500m.

Trainer Grahame Begg after Written By took out the Blue Diamond Stakes in February.

COOLMORE STUD STAKES (1200m, 3YO)

WRITTEN BY: Star colt who’ll be the testing material. Grahame Begg has aimed his preparation at this race and he’s won both of his starts impressively at Caulfield. He’s the one they have to beat.

ZOUSAIN: He made his superstar stable The Autumn Sun work to beat him last start in The Golden Rose at Randwick. That’s great form for this and he’ll be strong at the end of the 1200m.

DIPLOMATICO: Lightly raced Snitzel colt from the Hawkes stable who has had three starts for a second and then two wins with the last one in the Brian Crowley Stakes.

ENCRYPTION: Stormed home to win the Group 2 Danehill Stakes this track and distance before giving away a start to Written By when he chased him home at Caulfield in the Blue Sapphire.

SUNLIGHT: Brilliant filly whose last start failure in the Manikato Stakes should be forgiven as she had a litany of excuses due to bad luck. No surprise to see her bounce back.

SESAR: Brisbane colt with great form for this. Two starts ago he finished an unlucky fourth in the Atkins Stakes behind The Autumn Sun. He resumed from a spell with a win at group 2 level on October 6.

BEST VALUE

LONG LEAF: David Hayes pulled up stumps on a Caulfield Guineas campaign after the Preludes for that race reckoning that he’s a sprinter and has set him for this race.

KENNEDY MILE (1600m, OPEN)

LAND OF PLENTY: Darren Weir has him firing. Sat wide but still produced great closing sectionals to win the Toorak Handicap after unlucky second in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes both at Caulfield.

ICONOCLASM: Another Weir runner. He’s in great form having won his past two starts impressively at Caulfield and at Moonee Valley. He’s a winner over this track and distance and will have a light-weight.

CLIFF’S EDGE: Again a Weir runner. He’s tough and dependable. Fought hard to win at Crystal Mile at Moonee Valley on Saturday.

HARTNELL: He’s racing in great form in these feature mile races with a win in the Epsom and then a second in the Toorak Handicap at his past two starts. He’ll be in the finish.

SHILLELAGH: Won this race last year and the way she’s going she’s on track to do it again with fast finishing fourths at her past two starts in the Epsom and then in the Toorak Handicap.

BEST VALUE

PEACEFUL STATE: Another Weir runner. He wasn’t suited by the track bias at Caulfield last start. He finished second in the Australian Guineas this track and distance in March.

Jockey Craig Williams (left) rides Amphitrite to victory in the Schweppes Thousand Guineas.

EMPIRE ROSE STAKES (1600m, FILLIES & MARES)

AMPHITRITE: Darren Weir-trained filly who is racing in great fashion with wins in the Edward Manifold Stakes and the Thousand Guineas at her past two starts.

INVINCIBELLA: She gave away too big a start last time at Caulfield but she ran on strongly for second behind Shumookh who led throughout. 1600m will suit.

OOHOOD: She doesn’t know how to run a bad race, despite the fact she’s only won one race. Great effort at her last start to finish third in the Caulfield Guineas last start.

ALOISIA: She’s flying and is ready to win this. Finished on strongly against the pattern for last start third in the Tristarc Stakes behind Shumookh at Caulfield.

SHUMOOKH: The Waterhouse/Bott team is firing and she’ll take catching going on her last start all the wat win in the Tristarc Stakes.

BEST VALUE

SEABROOK: Another three-year-old filly tackling this. Slowly away in the Thousand Guineas and then held up for a run so effort to finish third was sound.

HOTHAM HANDICAP (2500m)

The last chance saloon for the Melbourne Cup

RUNAWAY: The Geelong Cup winner has got that Waterhouse toughness. He’s number 28 in the Melbourne Cup order of entry so he’s just about in but the stable is still considering running him to top him off the Melbourne Cup.

HOMESMAN: Caulfield Cup runner-up also on the cusp of getting into the Melbourne Cup. If they have to run him they will.

A PRINCE OF ARRAN: English stayer who impressed at his Australian debut with a third in the Herbert Power behind Yucatan at Caulfield. He needs to win to get into the Melbourne Cup.

LIBRAN: Big run when he ran home strongly for third in the Moonee Valley Cup. Needs to win to get into the Melbourne Cup.

MISS ADMIRATION: She finished off nicely in the Moonee Valley Cup. She stays all day and if she can win this and get into the Melbourne Cup a top ten finish wouldn’t be out of the question.

NOTHING TO CHALLENGE YUCATAN AS CUP FAVOURITE

MICHAEL MANLEY: Good morning, Sally. As a trader and price assessor, it’s business for you, but did you take off your hard hat to watch Winx on Saturday?

Sally Snow discusses the Melbourne Cup market after Cox Plate Day.

SALLY SNOW: We all did on the trading floor and even the nearby sports traders gave her a cheer. When we trade we’re normally pulling on the coat tails of the favourites, but Winx is an exception to the rule. What a champion. A big cheer went up when she won.

Back to business. How did you assess the runs of two horses that chased home Winx, Avilius and Rostropovich, in terms of the Melbourne Cup?

I wasn’t overly impressed by Avilius. I wanted to see him hit the line a bit better so he drifted from $11 to $13, but he’s at those odds because he’s our second worst result. I thought Rostropovich was a good Melbourne Cup trial as he worked on the pace and meets Avilius better on the weights.

Did we learn anything from the Moonee Valley Cup in terms of the Melbourne Cup?

I don’t think so because of the way the track played and it wasn’t a strong Moonee Valley Cup. The winner, Ventura Storm, had the perfect run and he’s failed twice over two miles. He’s firmed from $101 to $26 and we’ve since taken a bet of $2500 on him but we’re happy to lay him.

We haven’t seen Yucatan since he won the Herbert Power a fortnight ago, but he’s not been forgotten by Cup punters. Can any horse challenge him for favouritism?

No, he’s still a clear standout at $5. With Withhold out of the race after the Geelong Cup, it’s enhanced his prospects. Punters just keep on backing him.

What about internationals such as Magic Circle?

Punters are keen on him as he firmed from $13 to $11. He’s a bit of an unknown, but there’s a lack of interest around other runners. Cross Counter has firmed from $17 to $13. Our form man, Tony Brassel, is tipping Muntahaa and he’s been $17 to $15.

What about Caulfield Cup winner Best Solution?

He’s as cold as ice. He’s drifted from $9 to $13 and he’s hard to lay.

What about the Victoria Derby? Is it Thinkin’ Big’s for the taking?

If he draws out, that will make a difference. I was taken with Aramayo’s third in the Vase as he didn’t handle the tight turns and was wide. He’s also beaten Thinkin’ Big in Sydney.

What about the first two home in the Vase, Stars Of Carrum and Savoie?

Both had runs to suit and while they’ve firmed up in the betting, we are happy to lay at the current quote.