Race day focus: Best bets, analysis for Caulfield, Doomben, Randwick
You’d think there was only one horse running at Caulfield with Sikorsky, but despite the mountain of support, form analyst Michael Manley is turning to two smart mares for the real value.
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Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley runs the rule over the nine-race Caulfield program in search of winners. Check out what he likes along with TAB’s Nick Quinn take on the big Saturday races.
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BEST BET
SIKORSKY (R7, No.6 $2.15)
Showed he’s back to his best with his last start win at Flemington at his third run back after being sidelined for ages. He’s a spring class horse racing in off season Benchmark 84 and he should strip even fitter.
NEXT BEST
GODODDIN (R5, No.7 $3.90)
Loves this track and distance. She was left a sitting shot last start at Flemington grabbed on the line by rival in this Jamaican Hurry, who she meets four kilos better.
NEWS GIRL (R6, No.4 $3.30)
She loves Caulfield and she’s clicked with apprentice Lewis German whose three kilogram claim will mean she will carry 54 kilos, which looks a luxury for such a smart mare.
BEST EACH-WAY
PAUL’S REGRET (R2, No.6 $4.80)
Hasn’t had much luck in her two runs this time in with a second and a fourth at this track. Craig Williams goes on and she should settle handier.
BEST ROUGHIE
POETIC DREAM (R3, No.1 $41)
It’s a take on trust for this former Group 2 winner in Germany. His best Australian run was his debut for Lindsay Park but his next nine starts were disappointing. He’s making his debut for Team Hawkes and ran well in recent Flemington jump-out.
THE TRAINER
MICHAEL KENT JUNIOR
JABALI RIDGE (R1, No.1 $7)
“He worked very well on the course proper on Tuesday. He’ll roll forward from his outside draw and he’s a good each-way chance.”
LIBRATE (R4, No.2 $7.50)
“She’s one of our trio of horses aiming to make it a hat-trick. She’s a solid city class filly with a good each-way chance.”
RIGHT YOU ARE (R4, No.4 $3.10)
“We think he’s the most exciting prospect of the three. Look for him to get a typical Damien Oliver ride behind the speed. Only knock is he lacks the race fitness of the other two.”
SMOKE BOMB (R4, No.6 $4.80)
“He’s in awesome form and he’s getting better all the time. He’ll lead and if he’s left alone he’ll take running down.”
TAVISAN (R6, No.5 $6)
“Third up and he’s now at peak fitness. He runs best if he can control the tempo. He’s a top three chance.”
HEPTAGON (R8, No.1 $7.50)
“He was terrific first-up, drops in grade and gets in well with the claim of an in-form apprentice. He’s going really well.”
MASCULINO (R9, No.12 $26)
“His race form this time in doesn’t reflect how well he’s been working and trialling. We’ve been schooling him and we’ve put the blinkers on. He needs the toe out of the ground though.”
QUADZILLA WITH MICHAEL MANLEY
1st Leg: 1,4,5,6,8,11
2nd Leg: 5,6
3rd Leg: 5,6,9,12,15
4th Leg: 1,3,4,5,6,8,9,11
$100 flexi for 20.83%
FIRST LEG: RACE 6
NEWS GIRL (4), TAVISAN (5) and HAWKER HURRICANE (8) are the obvious selections but happy to swing a bit wider looking for value. Add SNITZCRAFT (1), INN KEEPER (6) and Damien Oliver’s mount NEVER AGAIN (11).
1st Leg: 1,4,5,6,8,11
SECOND LEG: RACE 7
This looks ideal for SIKORSKY (6) who could be taken one out. Former English galloper BATHOLOMEU DIAS (5) has jumped out well in the lead up to his Australian debut and he looks the best insurance.
2nd Leg: 5,6
THIRD LEG: RACE 8
Danny O’Brien’s two last start winners over 1400m at Caulfield, VIRAL (9) and JUMBO OZAKI (12) are must inclusions. Greg Eurell’s former Hong Kong galloper VICTORIA STAR (15) has gained a run and should also be included. Two imported gallopers making their Australian debuts in BIOMETRIC (5) and PRICE RANGE (6) have both jumped out well.
3rd Leg: 5,6,9,12,15.
FOURTH LEG: RACE 9
Open race with many chances. Take PACODALI (1), SUPER TITUS (3), INVERLOCH (4), VAUCLUSE BAY (5), GIRL TUESDAY (6), MAHAMEDEIS (8), SO YOU WIN (9) and HANG MAN (11).
4th Leg: 1,3,4,5,6,8,9,11
.
SKINNY QUADDIE
1st Leg: 4,5,8
2nd Leg: 6
3rd Leg: 12,15
4th Leg: 1,6,11
$25 flexi for 138.88%
Take three in the first leg which are NEWS GIRL (4), TAVISAN (5) and HAWKER HURRICANE (8). In the second leg take SIKORSKY (6) one out. In the third leg take JUMBO OZAKI (12) and VICTORIA STAR (15). In the last leg come home with PACODALI (1), TUESDAY GIRL (6) and HANG MAN (11).
EARLY QUADDIE
1,2,3,5,6,8,9,10/1,3,6,10,13/1,2,4,6,7,10,11/2,3,7,11
$100 flexi for 10.41%
BIG6
2,4/2,3,7,11/4,5,8/6/6,9,12/1,3,4,6,8,11
$100 flexi for 23,14%
$50 FOURPLAY BETTING STRATEGY
RACE 2 SUPER BOX RACE DAY HAMPER (1100m, 3yo fillies)
$20 the win at $4.80 and $30 the place at $1.95 PAUL’S REGRET (6)
Warrnambool filly who hasn’t had much luck in her two runs this time in at Caulfield which have produced a second and a fourth. Craig Williams goes on and expect she will settle closer in the run.
RACE 5 BENCHMARK 90 (1200m, mares)
$50 the win at $3.90 GODODDIN (7)
Consistent mare who loves Caulfield. She’ll get a good run off the strong speed which will suit her. She was beaten in the final stride last start and she should make amends here.
RACE 6 LE PINE FUNERALS HANDICAP (1100m)
$50 the win at $3.30 NEWS GIRL (4)
Corowa trained mare who loves nothing more than a trip to Caulfield where she has won three races including her last start over this trip of 1100m on a heavy track. She’ll take up a good spot behind the speed and with Lewis German’s three kilos claim she’ll be hard to fend off with only 54 kilos.
RACE 7 BENCHMARK 84 (1600m)
$50 win at $2.15 on SIKORSKY (6)
This looks tailor made for Sikorsky and he’s been well backed to win. He showed he was back to his best with his last win at Flemington over 1600m and this isn’t any harder.
MORE RACING
WEEKEND BEST BETS: ONE-HORSE RACE FOR PUNTERS
RAY AND DUFF: ROSEHILL UP CLOSE AND PERSONAL
RACE 1: 11.40am HANDICAP (1100m, 2yo)
Mat Ellerton and Simon Zahra have two great chances in this with CRYSTAL CHIEF (6) and ISLAND JOY (11). Crystal Chief recorded the fastest last 400m and 200m for the day when he finished third behind Divine Caprice and Nantucket at Flemington over 1000m at his debut. He was unlucky as he had the fourth placegetter Better Kick holding him in a pocket until late. Island Joy sat wide and raced on the speed and won like a smart filly at her debut at Cranbourne. Nantucket has had two starts for two seconds in the city. YULONG PROGRESS (7) was given an easy time in a recent Flemington jumpout, He showed talent late last year including a debut third behind JABALI RIDGE (1) at Flemington. Jabali Ridge hasn’t started since he finished ninth in the Blue Diamond. DARK HORSE (2) was a comfortable winner at Sandown at his debut where he sat third and proved too good. VALAQUENTA (3) was unlucky last start in Sydney. KAHALAYAAN (8) led throughout to win Flemington jumpout comfortably.
SUGGESTED BET: CRYSTAL CHIEF THE WIN
TAB FIXED ODDS: 5) Nantucket $9-$7.50
6) Crystal Chief $5-$4.60
BETS: $500 @ $5
11) Island Joy $7.50-$4.80
BETS: $200ew @ $6/$2.20
RACE 2: 12.15PM HANDICAP (1100m, BM 78)
PAUL’S REGRET (6) finished an unlucky first-up second behind LANKAN STAR (1) in a race where FELICIA (8) finished third this track and distance on April 18. Both the placegetters meet Lankan Star four kilos better on the weights. Paul’s Regret then again had little luck when she finished fourth behind Barbie’s Fox last start over 1200m also at Caulfield. Craig Williams goes on. BUTTON EXPRESS (5) finished second in that race where she showed a lot of speed and fought on. Felicia has now had two starts back from over a year off and has shown good speed each time. SOMALS (10) is a classy filly resuming. She won her first two starts last time in and then had little luck at The Valley where she went too hard in the lead and then being trapped wide at Flemington over 1400m. She won a recent 800m Flemington jumpout running the second fastest time of the morning. BROADWAYANDFOURTH (3) got too far back last start at Flemington over 1400m. Back to 1100m and should be suited by likely fast speed. LANKAN STAR (1) has been racing well and should get a good run from barrier one. ABSOLUTE FLIRT (2) has finished second this track and distance at Group 3 level. EXCUSED (7) comes into contention if the track firms up.
SUGGESTED BET: PAUL’S REGRET EACH-WAY
TAB FIXED ODDS: 1) Lankan Star $15-$12
8) Felicia $8-$7.50
10) Somals $6.50-$5
BETS: $5,000 @ $6.50
RACE 3: 12.50PM HANDICAP BM 78 (1400m)
Former English galloper DUBAI DOMINION (3) is having his first start for the Maher/Eustace stable looked sharp in a recent Sandown jumpout. He’s been placed twice at listed level in England. Teo Nugent’s twp kilos claim will also help. RUBAN BLEU (6) is racing consistently. Backs up after finishing fourth, beaten 0.6 lengths by Alfa Oro last week where he ran on well. I’M TELLING YA (7) has drawn out but will drift back anyway. He’s been placed third twice at three runs this track and distance. LEITER (10) usually races well at Caulfield. If third emergency HIDDEN LEGEND (18) got in he’d be hard to beat. Former talented German galloper POETIC DREAM (1) resumes after a 50 week spell for new stable in team Hawkes. He looked good with a recent fourth in a Flemington jumpout. EURACK (13) has the talent to win.
SUGGESTED BET: DUBAI DOMINION EACH-WAY
TAB FIXED ODDS: 3) Dubai Dominion $6-$4.40
6) Ruban Bleu $4.60-$4.20
RACE 4: 1.30PM HANDICAP (1600m, 3yo)
Strong attack on this race from the Mick Price and Michael Kent Junior stable with three great chances in LIBRATE (2), RIGHT YOU ARE (4) and SMOKE BOMB (6). Right You Are resumed from a spell with an easy win in a Werribee benchmark 64 over 1400m where he sat wide throughout. At his previous run he easily won a Sandown maiden. Librate fought hard to defeat CHARLEISE (5) at Flemington last start over 1600m. Smoke Bomb has won his past two starts including his last one in a Benchmark 64 over 1400m at Cranbourne where he led throughout to win by five lengths. Charleise was unlucky last start at Flemington as she was held up for a run. INDEPENDENT ROAD (1) and REGARDSMAREE (3) are racing consistently. TRANSLATOR (7) is aiming for a hat-trick of wins FIORENTE’S GIRL (10) is racing well and looks over the odds. QUAIL HOLLOW (11) will improve on a dry track.
SUGGESTED BET: RIGHT YOU ARE EACH-WAY
TAB FIXED ODDS: 1) Independent Road $15-$13
BETS: $150 win x $50 place @ $14/$3.90, $275 win x $125 place @ $13/$3.70, $1,000 @ $13
3) Regardsmaree $21-$17
BETS: $300 @ $21
5) Charleise $12-$9
6) Smoke Bomb $8-$5.50
BETS: $500 @ $6.50
RACE 5: 2.05PM HANDICAP BM90 (1200m, mares)
GODDODIN (7) was run down in the final strides by the in-form JAMAICAN HURRY (11) at Flemington last start. She travelled well and Brad Rawiller waited as long as he could before letting her go but she was still left in front a long way out. She meets Jamaican Hurry four kilos better and she’s had three starts this track and distance for two wins. She’ll get a great run on the speed which should be fast. TWITCHY FRANK (2) flopped last start here in a rare bad run. She likes this track.
TAHITIAN DANCER (3) had little luck as she was trapped wide throughout in the Wangoom Handicap. She finished next to last Saturday’s Flemington winner Reykjavik in that race. SHE’S A THIEF (13) has a good second-up record. DYSLEXIC (1) has been racing in Group races in Sydney. CAUSEWAY GIRL (5) hasn’t been placed in four Caulfield starts but hasn’t been disgraced. PARIANO (8) is fast and aiming for hat-trick.
SUGGESTED BET: GODODDIN THE WIN
TAB FIXED ODDS: 1) Dyslexic $13-$10
7) Gododdin $4.80-$4.20
RACE 6: 2.45PM LE PINE FUNERALS HANDICAP (1100m)
The pride of Corowa NEWS GIRL (4) loves this track and distance with two wins and a second from six starts including her last one here on a heavy track. She’ll again use Lewis German’s three kilos claim and will carry only 54kgs. Four starts ago she finished second to Sylvia’s Mother with 55 kilos at Group 3 level. TAVISAN (5) finished second behind News Girl and was hard up against the fence which wasn’t the place to be. HAWKER HURRICANE (8) was pressured when he led and only tired in the Wangoom Handicap where he wasn’t beaten far. Firmer track and drop back to 1100m will help. SNITZCRAFT (1) wasn’t far away in that race and the prospect of a firmer race will help him. INN KEEPER (6) has been placed at his last two starts and likes this track and distance.
SUGGESTED BET: NEWS GIRL THE WIN
TAB FIXED ODDS: 4) News Girl $3.70-$3.50
BETS: $300 @ $3.80, $900 @ $3.60, $1,000 x (2) @ $3.55/$3.50
6) Inn Keeper $17-$12
8) Hawker Hurricane $4.60-$4
RACE 7: 3.25PM HANDICAP BM 84 (1600m)
SIKORSKY (6) has returned to form after a long lay-off. At his third run back from almost 18 months off he won with authority at Flemington last start over 1600m. As a three-year-old he was competitive in Group races and he looks on the way back to that form. He looks well placed in a Benchmark 84. Query is the Maher/Eustace import BARTHOLOMEU DIAS (5) who ran on well in strong recent Sandown jumpout. ALL TOO HUIYING (2) finished close-up fourth in the Group 3 Lee Stakes which featured Seabrook and Harbour Views in the placings in Adelaide last start. Former Perth galloper NO SAY IN IT (8) ran home strongly for second behind Eugene’s Forest at Ballarat last start. SOMETHING SILVER (11) will improve on a firmer surface. PURE SCOT (10) is racing consistently and usually runs well with Craig Williams in the saddle.
SUGGESTED BET: SIKORSKY THE WIN
TAB FIXED ODDS: 6) Sikorsky $2.70-$2.30
BETS: $500 @ $2.70, $400 @ $2.70, $500 @ $2.60
RACE 8: 4.05PM HANDICAP BM84 (1400m)
In-form stablemates from the Danny O’Brien stable VIRAL (9) and JUMBO OZAKI (12) both were last start winners this track and distance. Craig Williams rode them both and has elected to ride Jumbo Ozaki. Jumbo Ozaki should get a good spot on the speed again and he won a stronger race last start. VICTORIA STAR (15) has had four starts since returning from Hong Kong and after unlucky fourth at The Valley, he’s won his last three starts for Greg Eurell. Former French galloper who is now with Maher/Eustace PRICE RANGE (6) showed speed and finished on terms with his stablemate Dubai Dominion in a recent Sandown jumpout over 800m. Another import from Limdsay Park BIOMETRIC (5) wasn’t pushed out in a recent jumpout at Flemington. HEPTAGON (1) ran well when fifth in the Wangoom.
SUGGESTED BET: JUMBO OZAKI THE WIN
TAB FIXED ODDS: 1) Heptagon $10-$7.50
12) Jumbo Ozaki $4.80-$3.90
RACE 9: 4.38pm HANDICAP (2000m)
The prospect of a Good track will suit GIRL TUESDAY (6) and PACODALI (1). Girl Tuesday didn’t get into the action last start in Adelaide behind Oasis Girl on a soft track. Before that she finished eighth in the Hawkesbury Cup but was held up for a run and was beaten less than two lengths. Last spring she finished close-up in the Matriarch Stakes behind Oceanex and Miss Siska over 2000m at Flemington. PACODALI (1) won this race last year. HANG MAN (11) should now be ready after three runs back from a spell. INVERLOCH (4) has won his last two starts this track and distance. He finished second to Aktau before that. SUPER TITUS (3) ran on to win over 2000m at Flemington last start a race in which MAHAMEDEIS (8) finished second in after sitting wide. SO YOU WIN (9) will also appreciate the firmer track and races well this track and distance. VAUCLUSE BAY (5) is also a winner this track and distance.
SUGGESTED BET: GIRL TUESDAY EACH-WAY
TAB FIXED ODDS: 1) Pacodali $15-$13-$14
6) Girl Tuesday $8.50-$6
BETS: $300 @ $8
8) Mahamedeis $8.50-$6.50
MANLEY’S BIG SIX TO FOLLOW THIS WEEKEND
CAULFIELD
RIGHT YOU ARE
(R4 No.4)
3YO gelding
4 starts: 2-1-1
(So You Think–Leica Ding)
Trainers: Mick Price and Michael Kent Jr
With a fraction of luck he could have won either of his first two starts, but he put it together with a 3½-length win at Sandown Hillside in December over 1600m before being spelled. He sat wide and toyed with his rivals when he resumed at Werribee recently. Bred to go further as his dam was a Geelong Cup winner.
WINNING CHANCE: Looks a horse with a stack of potential. With Oliver on and from barrier 2, he’s a great chance.
ODDS: $3.10
SIKORSKY (R7 No.6)
4YO gelding
10 starts: 2-3-1
(Pierro–Musidora)
Trainers: David and Ben Hayes and Tom Dabernig
As a three-year-old he was beaten by Extra Brut over 1800m at Flemington and finished fourth in the Victoria Derby. He was then sidelined with injury and didn’t race for 18 months, but he’s quickly found form, as shown by his easy last-start win at Flemington over 1600m. David Hayes says he is a spring horse racing in the off-season to get his ratings up.
WINNING CHANCE: Superb. Looks ideally placed and a level above his opposition.
ODDS: $2.25
BIOMETRIC (R8 No.5)
4YO stallion
7 starts: 3-1-0
(Bated Breath–Bionic)
Trainers: David and Ben Hayes and Tom Dabernig
English import making his Australian debut. He looked impressive in a recent Flemington jumpout without being pushed. He won three of his first four starts, including a 1600m race at Royal Ascot against his three-year-old age group. He could be a horse with a bright future.
WINNING CHANCE: Not helped by barrier 20, but the draw might not be such a disadvantage later in the day. Looks an each-way chance.
ODDS: $13
DOOMBEN
DAWN PASSAGE
(R8 No.3)
3YO colt
(Dawn Approach–
Raja Lane)
9 starts: 4-1-1
Trainers: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott
He’s always shown potential, but he’s now delivering. An impressive winner at his past two
starts — the Group 3 Hawkesbury Guineas and the Inglis 3YO Guineas at Rosehill. He can race handy to the speed and then produce a quick closing sprint. He could be a factor in the Stradbroke.
WINNING CHANCE: Strong. He has a fitness edge on his rivals and loves 1400m.
ODDS: $2.50
GRAND PIANO (R8 No.5)
3YO gelding
(Lord Kanaloa–
African Piano)
10 starts: 5-1-1
Trainer: John Thompson
A superbly-bred galloper incorporating Japan’s leading bloodlines, he is an exciting prospect with four wins from his past five starts. He has charged home to win his past two starts over 1500m at Rosehill Gardens and 1600m at Randwick. Look for him to be running on strongly.
WINNING CHANCE: Expect he’ll drift back, but he’ll be flying home.
ODDS: $7.50
BELMONT PARK
WINDSTORM (R4 No.2)
3YO gelding
(Redoute’s Choice–
Storm Alert)
2 starts: 2-0-0
Trainers: Grant and Alana Williams
He’s another of the seemingly endless array of top horses owned by Bob Peters. His two starts last year suggested he could be as good as any horse Peters owns, but he suffered an injury before the Perth summer carnival and is on the comeback trail, having won a recent trial at Belmont.
WINNING CHANCE: The hype is monstrous and the odds are short. Expect him to make it three from three.
ODDS: $1.65
michael.manley@news.com.au
NICK QUINN’S SATURDAY SNAPSHOT
Nick Quinn expects Gai Waterhouse to land a big blow at the Queensland Winter Carnival with three-year-old colt Dawn Passage extending his picket fence to three if successful.
With back-to-back wins in the Hawkesbury Guineas and Inglis Guineas, Dawn Passage arrives in Brisbane in exceptional form and should continue on his merry way at Doomben.
Check out what else Quinny likes as he runs the rule over the big races across the country and pinpoints the early market movers.
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QUINNY’S BEST BET
FITUESE (Randwick Race 5, No. 8)
VALUE BET
SIXTIES GROOVE (Randwick Race 7, No. 1)
LAY OF THE WEEK
ANDERS (Randwick Race 1, No. 1)
DOOMBEN RACE 8
A terrific edition of the Fred Best Classic which will serve as a delicious entree for the Stradbroke Handicap.
There are five last start winners including the favourite Dawn Passage.
Dawn Passage was a strong winner of the Inglis Guineas last start when landing some good bets and shapes as the runner to beat.
The Waterhouse-Bott trained Dawn Passage opened $3.50 and has already attracted good support backed into $3.10.
He should get a sweet run in transit from the draw and is the one to beat.
Hightail is the $6 second elect, he comes into this race having won the Gold Coast Guineas beating many of his rivals here.
He is building a strong race resume having won three of his past four starts including both runs this campaign.
Exhilarates caught the eye behind Hightail last start and should be better suited by the step up in trip and the Doomben track.
He again looks a must for the multiples.
If there is a knockout runner I would not be surprised if it is the Gary Moore-trained Petronius who comes into this race on the back of a strong Warwick Farm win.
While he jumps sharply in grade, he has got plenty of upside.
SUGGESTED BET: DAWN PASSAGE THE WIN
CAULFIELD RACE 4
Punters are keen on the Mick Price/Mick Kent Junior stable winning the race, but with which runner?
The stable saddles up the top three in the market and all three come into the race looking to complete a winning hat-trick.
Favourite Right You Are has eased to $2.80 from an opening quote of $2.50.
He was tipped out for a spell after winning strongly at Sandown in December and resumed with a soft kill at Werribee.
Expect him to race his way through the grades and stick with him here.
The early money has come for Smoke Bomb who has been backed from $8 into $5.50.
Smoke Bomb has won his past two starts at Cranbourne and despite the step up in grade warrants respect.
Librate won well at Flemington and is shooting for a third straight win.
SUGGESTED BET: RIGHT YOU ARE THE WIN
RANDWICK RACE 7
The Lord Mayors Cup with the predicament for punters that the early favourite Bottega is the second emergency.
Should he gain a start he will be hard to beat on the back of an eye catching second behind buzz horse Kinane in the Frank Packer Plate before winning well at Randwick last start.
TAB’s Trent Langskaill reported strong early money for Sixties Groove including one bet of $2000 the win and $1000 the place at $9 and $2.90.
I can totally understand the support for Sixties Groove, who has a good second-up record and an outstanding record over 2000m where he has had five starts for four wins and third to Kenedna in the Group 1 Doomben Cup.
Other leading chances in an open race include Dr Drill, who is a last-start winner in the Scone Cup and Yulong Prince who won in South Africa over this distance.
SUGGESTED BET: SIXTIES GROOVE EACH-WAY