Rosehill tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis
Ron Dufficy reckons Bangkok is good value, while Ray Thomas is sticking with a Brad Widdup-trained winning machine at Rosehill Gardens. Plus, Lizzie Jelfs and Paul Joice’s feature-race tips.
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The Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the best chances on the nine-race card at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.
SUGGESTED BETS
DUFF’S BEST
Race 7, No.10: LASHES
VALUE BET
Race 8, No.3: BANGKOK
Race 9, No.5: NIGHT OF POWER
RAY’S BEST
Race 7, No.7: ADELONG
NEXT BEST
Race 8, No.9: OUTRAGEOUS
The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!
ROSEHILL GARDENS
Track: Heavy 9. Rail: True.
R1 (11.25am): DARLEY 2YO HCP (1100m)
Dufficy: I’m very wary of the Team Hawkes filly Oh Say. She’s had three trials, she’s a sweet mover with a high cruising speed and will be worth a look on track. Any market moves will be significant. Lady Banff has the performances on the board and she was in the market for the Magic Millions. Although she doesn’t have any wet track form, she did trial well on a heavy recently. Meadow Land did a good job winning his maiden at Newcastle and is another who can improve.
Thomas: Britain impressed me the way he powered away to win over 900m at Newcastle, running smart time. He’s untested on a wet track but looks a promising colt. I agree with what you said about Oh Say. She has looked a real talent in her trials and although it is not ideal having to make her race debut in Saturday class over 1100m on a wet track, if she won it would not surprise. Superbellaa is a very fast, underrated filly who romped away with a recent Canterbury trial on a heavy track.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Lady Banff $5-$4.20 ($400 @ $5, $1,000 @ $4.40), Oh Say $6-$5 ($500 @ $5.50, $2,000 @ $5), Showtime Lady $21-$17-$15 ($500 @ $21, $500 @ $17)
LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS
R2 (12pm): TAB HIGHWAY PLATE (1500m)
Dufficy: Trainer Keith Dryden is very strong with three runners and I like his ex-Chris Waller horse, Rockarosa. She looks well placed in a Highway considering the races she has been running in. She gets in well at the set weights and she looks hard to hold out. She did win on a heavy track three starts back. Art Cadeau has his hoof on the till and deserves a change of luck. He should put himself in the firing line from the inside draw. Leg Work gets another wet track and has to be in contention again as he enjoys these conditions.
Thomas: I’m going with Art Cadeau. He gets the run of the race from his favourable draw and his last-start second to Leg Work was a game effort. He’s working up to a win and gets his chance here. He meets Leg Work 2kg better at the weights here for a half length defeat. Leg Work is in very good form and rates highly again, particularly given he is so effective on wet tracks. Ready To Humble is also well drawn here, will make his own luck on speed and is certain to be competitive.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Leg Work $5.50-$5 ($500 @ $5.50), Rockarosa $11-$8-$6.50 ($200 @ $11, $200 @ $9, $400 @ $8)
Speedmaps for Rosehill Saturday are now online-https://t.co/P6vvQwAZsH pic.twitter.com/WQbzkPpknb
— Racing NSW Stewards (@RNSWStewards) June 11, 2020
R3 (12.35pm): YES YES YES HCP (1500m)
Dufficy: I found this race very tricky. Bound To Win is a nice filly with a good turn of speed aiming for three wins in a row but she is up 3kg and has a wide barrier so there are a few things against her. Word For Word sets up well on the back up and the form around her is very good – but she hasn’t won in such a long time. Miss Einstein was disappointing last start but on her previous form will be right in a race like this.
Thomas: I’m giving Miss Einstein another chance. I thought she had little luck in the Bound To Win race last start as she was angling for a run in the straight when she was held up and lost momentum at a vital stage in the straight. Miss Einstein meets Bound To Win 3.5kg better at the weights and will be hard to beat. Bound To Win is getting up in the weights now but she is in tremendous form. I don’t mind Maggie Miss at odds here as she will race on speed and give herself every chance. Trajection is an improving filly with a strong finishing burst.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Bound To Win $5-$4.40-$3.60 ($750 @ $3.80, $500 @ $3.60 TWICE), Word For Word $3.60-$4.40, Miss Einstein $5-$4-$4.20 ($600 @ $5, $200 @ $4.60, $200 @ $4.40)
R4 (1.10pm): TAB WINTER CUP (2400m)
Dufficy: Chris Waller has a mortgage on this race. I think his stayer The Lord Mayor is ready for a peak performance. He was blending into the race late there when third to Wu Gok last start and fourth-up here at 2400m he gets his chance. I’m leaning his way at the better odds over Wu Gok who holds most of the aces here as he loves it wet and gets complete control up front. It just doesn’t sit right with me going from $21 to $2.50 favourite but I concede he is the go-to horse after a dominant last start win. Yulong Prince gets a chance at 2400m after a couple of 2000m runs so it is the right time to try him at the distance and he does have good wet form. I’ve got the Waller stayers running top four with Carzoff bringing different form to this race.
Thomas: I also like The Lord Mayor to turn the tables on Wu Gok. The Lord Mayor found the line strongly when third to his stablemate last start over 2000m and he is going to appreciate getting up to 2400m today. He’s ready to win. Wu Gok is a superior wet-tracker and romped away with the Lord Mayor’s Cup last start. He’s up 3kg here and 2400m is as far as he wants it. Yulong Prince split Wu Gok and The Lord Mayor last start and he can provide Chris Waller with another feature race trifecta. If the track improves out of the heavy range, then Scarlet Dream has a knockout chance. She battled way behind Wu Gok last start and although she is much better on a firmer surface, she is very fit and can run another competitive race.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Wu Gok $2.60-$2.50 ($630 @ $2.60), Scarlet Dream $12-$10
R5 (1.50pm): ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB HCP (1200m)
Dufficy: Rari is not a noted first-up horse but I liked his recent trial. He did a good job with a win and five seconds last preparation which suggests he won’t be far away. Malea Magic should give a dash here from the right spot in the run. Switched just has to tick off that 1200m box for me at the price she is but still has a good chance after a nice first-up run.
Thomas: Outback Diva could be the knockout horse at odds. She ran a blinder first-up at Kembla, coming from last on the turn with a long, sustained run wide out to just miss. She’s unbeaten second-up, handles heavy going and will be competitive at double figure odds. Switched is very genuine and will be in the contest for a long way. Rari is a smart type, handles wet tracks and never runs a bad race.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Malea Magic $9.50-$8, Bring The Ransom $26-$18-$17
R6 (2.30pm): DE BORTOLI WINES HCP (1800m)
Dufficy: I’m a fan of Soldier Of Love. He has done me a few favours and this is a nice progression from 1400m to 1500m and now he gets to 1800m – it’s perfect for him. He’s adaptable as he can go forward or take a sit and is an in-form horse. The Waller duo Matowi and Across Dubai are the dangers here. They both caught the eye first-up and although I have a suspicion they might still be one run short, it would be no surprise to me to see them both in the finish.
Thomas: New Arrangement is only fifth emergency and is in real danger of missing a start but if he does get the chance to line up, I want to be with him. He didn’t have the best of luck last start when he ran on for second to High Opinion at Randwick. New Arrangement is coming back slightly in trip but he drops 4kg, handles the going and is ready to win. Soldier Of Love is a promising type who has found that winning habit. Deserved favourite and clearly the one to beat. is racing well and is a chance at odds.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Matowi $13-$9, Frankely Awesome $21-$17-$18
R7 (3.10pm): CATANACHS SPRINT (1100m)
Dufficy: I have to go with the weights and measures here and Lashes. She is 6kg better off after running second to Adelong first-up. She has had a nice tick-over trial between runs, the wetter track suits and her second-up form is much better so she is getting a lot of ticks for this race. In saying that, Adelong is a winner, she keeps getting the job done. Broken Arrows is another well in at the weights here and if they overdo it up front he will be the one charging home. Superium wasn’t himself on a heavy first-up but if the track improves during today’s meeting he has a chance, too.
Thomas: Adelong does have a few things against her but what she has going for her is a fierce will to win. She demonstrated that quality and mare when winning over the Rosehill 1100m course two weeks ago, improving her record to five wins (and two seconds) from seven starts. Talented mare who can keep winning. Superium was solid without being spectacular when resuming but he’s fitter now and has the ability to be right in the finish. Lashes is well in at the weights and she does excel second-up and on heavy tracks. Kylease has struggled in two runs from a spell but she is right down in the weights here and if she can get back to her best form she will make her presence felt.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Lashes $4.80-$4-$3.80 ($400 @ $4.80, $500 @ $4.40, $350 @ $4.20, $500 @ $4 TWICE, $330 @ $4)
R8 (3.50pm): IRON JACK HCP (1300m)
Dufficy: I quite like Bangkok at double-figure odds. Her past five runs have been in Group and Listed races and she is back to benchmark 94 here. She gets her preferred wet track and the last time she was on a wet track she ran third in a Group 2 Sapphire Stakes. I feel she is the forgotten horse here. Outrageous has been good at his three runs back and maps nicely on the speed. Trumbull is his own worst enemy by missing the start but I don’t mind him back in distance here. Sure Knee I’d prefer to see her at 1500m but she is going well.
Thomas: This is an open race. The consistent Outrageous deserves to break through. He looked set to score when he ranged up alongside Man Of Peace at Randwick only to be edged out right in a on the line. I like his set-up here, home track, perfectly drawn, 1300m and wet track. This is his chance. Trumbull is a talented horse and if he jumps cleanly, puts himself into the race early, then he is more than capable of winning. Sure Knee has drawn off the track but she has come back so well this campaign I have to include her in my numbers. I also think Bangkok rates among the main chances.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Bangkok $15-$13-$8.50 ($1,000 @ $12), Outrageous $15-$7-$6 ($500 @ $9)
R9 (4.25pm): SKY RACING ACTIVE HCP (1300m)
Dufficy: Night Of Power is resuming and this is short of his best distance but he is just trialling too well. His trial was amazing at Canterbury and he probably went better than Classique Legend. He’s an import set for a big preparation and although he might be better at 1500m second-up, I don’t want to miss him on the way through. Handspun is the danger. She was very good when resuming on a heavy track and she did win second-up last campaign. Cuban Royale just needs luck from a wide draw.
Thomas: Tricky Gal is a very genuine mare with five wins from nine starts and only one unplaced run. She was doing her best work on the line when third at Eagle Farm behind Red Chase in a strong form race. Tricky Gal is drawn to get the right run and she handles rain-affected track conditions. She’s good each way value here. Handspun did have the flashing light on her after a very good comeback third to Adelong here and she will be fitter again for this race. Bold And Wild disappointed second-up but he’s an emerging horse worth another chance.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Night Of Power $11-$10-$8 ($400 @ $10)
RAY THOMAS’S INSIDE MAIL
BARRIERS
The best barriers at Rosehill Gardens for the past 3 years (in order of wins)
1100m: 4,1,3,5
1200m: 3,1,4,5
1300m: 5,8,2,3
1500m: 2,4,1,5
1750m: 2,1,3,5
2400m: 5,2,3,7
EARLY QUADDIE
Race 2: 2,5,6,15
Race 3: 1,2,6,11
Race 4: 1,2,4
Race 5: 4,8,13
Suggested Bet: $20
Bet Percentage: 13.88%
QUADDIE
Race 6: 4,6,12,19
Race 7: 7,10,11
Race 8: 3,6,8,9
Race 9: 4,5,7,9
Suggested Bet: $20
Bet Percentage: 10.41%
PRICE CHECK
Lashes (race seven) clashes with Adelong again after finishing second to that mare at Rosehill a month ago. Adelong has won again since while Lashes went back to the barrier trials. Lashes does meet Adelong 6kg better at the weights here and punters have taken note of the weight turnaround with Lashes the best-backed runner on the program, firming from $4.80 into $3.80 after consistent support including $400 at $4.80, $500 at $4.40 and two bets of $500 at $4.
TRIAL POINTERS
Lady Banff (race one) is a Matthew Dunn-trained grey daughter of Top Echelon, who is best known for running second to another grey, Lovely Jubly (dam of the grey Chautauqua), in the 2002 Group 1 T J Smith, now the J J Atkins. Like her sire, Lady Banff won her first two starts and ended her debut campaign finishing unplaced behind Away Game in the Magic Millions. This is her first visit to Sydney but she certainly left a good impression winning her trial at Canterbury on the Heavy 8 track last Friday week. She was runner-up in a Rosehill Heat before that — both times with James McDonald riding, as he is here.
Night Of Power (race nine) was foaled in Ireland and is a grandson of Sadler’s Wells. His third dam is User Friendly who was a Champion Filly/Mare in her day winning the English Oaks and finishing second in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Night And Power won three races in England and Ireland from a mile to 2414m before coming to Australia. He has performed well in his five starts here highlighted by a win at Canterbury with Hugh Bowman riding. Speaking of Canterbury, it was there that he trialled so well last Friday week hitting the line well to finish third to The Everest-bound Classique Legend who franked the form with a win in last Saturday’s Bob Charley Stakes
WORK WHISPERS
Meadow Land (race one) is a Kris Lees-trained colt by Not A Single Doubt out of a Lonhro mare named Twirl who was runner-up in the Sweet Embrace Stakes back in her day. This handsome colt owned by Ron and Judy Wanless trialled exceedingly well before his return in a 900m Maiden at Newcastle on May 26 where he opened up at $1.35 before going off at $1.50. Granted he only by a short half head but they streeted the rest. He can only be improved for the experience and his pedigree suggests he will handle the heavy track. Meadow land worked over 600m on the Beaumont track last Saturday timed in 35.9s.
Articus (race six) is another of the Kris Lees string bound for Rosehill Gardens. This French-bred gelding in the Australian Bloodstock colours has so far been unable to run a place in five previous trips to Rosehill but he did finish fourth here two weeks ago in a 1500m Benchmark 88 coming back 100m from his previous start 21 days prior. He sets-up beautifully for the step to 1800m and perhaps the fittest he will be this campaign. Articus worked on the Proride at Newcastle last Tuesday morning in an unhurried 1.08.75s.
THE JUDGMENT
What the experts’ say ...
ROSEHILL GARDENS
R4: WINTER CUP (2400m)
Paul Joice (Sky Racing): “I’m leaning towards Yulong Prince. Did run second in a Group 1 over this distance when racing in South Africa and looks to get the right run. The Lord Mayor can settle much closer in the small field.’’
Lizzie Jelfs (Sky Racing): “Assume the track will be heavy and with that in mind it will suit Wu Go along with Yulong Prince and The Lord Mayor. The yard pre-race will be important.’’
Glenn Munsie (Sky Racing): “Yulong Prince meets Wu Gok much better at the weights at his first 2400m start since the 2018 South African Derby where he ran second. Just can’t see the price differential and have to prefer him.’’
Grant Palmer (bookie): “The track will be a genuine heavy and that will suit the favourite Wu Gok. He thrashed them last time out in similar conditions but does go up a few kilos for that effort. Scarlet Dream has firmed from her opening quote but I’m happy to take her on as she does not seem to enjoy the heavy tracks.’’
Andrew Georgiou (TAB): “Wu Gok was the first horse backed on Wednesday and continues to be the best supported. Specked at good odds first-up and a big chance to go back-to-back.’’
Verdict: WU GOK
R7 CATANACHS SPRINT (1100m)
Paul Joice (Sky Racing): “Lashes gets a huge 6kg turnaround against Adelong from their latest clash. Has trialled strongly between runs and gets the nod. Adelong is a winner though and will prove tough to beat again.’’
Lizzie Jelfs (Sky Racing): “Adelong has to be hard to beat again as she has shown tremendous determination in winning her last two starts. I will also be interested in the look of Laburnum.’’
Glenn Munsie (Sky Racing): “Adelong easily accounted for Lashes first-up but Lashes should derive enormous improvement from that run and has had a trial since. Adelong had the advantage of a run going into that race. Meets Adelong 6kgs better (but she has won since).’’
Grant Palmer (bookie): “Lashes has been very well supported in early markets. Adelong got the better of her last time they met but punters think the 6kg weight swing could be the difference.’’
Andrew Georgiou (TAB): “Punters have been keen to back Lashes early on. She is three times as popular as Adelong and judging by the weight of money, she could turn the tables here.’’
Verdict: LASHES
EAGLE FARM
R9: DANE RIPPER STAKES (1400m)
Paul Joice (Sky Racing): “Winter Bride is coming through an unlucky run in the Stradbroke and under the weight-for-age scale looks the one to beat. Irithea likely to roll along in front and is always tough to get past.’’
Glenn Munsie (Sky Racing): “Different formlines from Irithea and Baccarat Baby. Think the value sits with Baccarat Baby coming back from 1600m at the Sunshine Coast as she got to that distance very quickly and returns to her own sex for the first time this campaign. We saw last week you can run on at Eagle Farm. Romani Girl nice at odds.’’
Grant Palmer (bookie): “I thought Outback Barbie looked a big chance from the draw. Irithea looks the likely leader and Baccarat Baby can slot in right behind her. Winter Bride got blocked for a run at a critical stage in the Stradbroke and punters haven’t missed her in the betting.’’
Andrew Georgiou (TAB): “Niccanova was huge in the Straddie last week and can go a few steps further here. Definitely the one to beat and holds 50 per cent of the early investment.’’
Verdict: WINTER BRIDE
SATURDAY EXTRA
SHAYNE O’CASS’S TOP PICKS
KEMBLA GRANGE
BEST BET
CHERVIL (Race 4, No.2)
Jason Coyle-trained debutant out of John O’Shea’s pair, sire Charge Forward, and stakes-winning mare White Sage. Will be finishing off hard.
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
KATHY O’HARA knows every blade of grass at Kembla Grange and has a great book of rides again.
QUADDIE
Race 5: 5, 8
Race 6: 3, 6, 9
Race 7: 1, 3
Race 8: 1, 2
NARRANDERA
BEST BET
MISS FARLOO (Race 2, No.2)
Chased home the handy Katie Did It in the nation’s capital last start; this is considerably easier and she is a winner at the track.
NEXT BEST
MISS ELSIE MAY (Race 1, No.1)
Has finished runner-up six times in nine starts, a beaten fav at five of them, but surely this is the day she repays her weary followers.
Originally published as Rosehill tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis