Melbourne Cup Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy
THE Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy discuss the 24 runners in our most famous race, the Melbourne Cup.
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THE Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy discuss the 24 runners in our most famous race, the Melbourne Cup.
MELBOURNE CUP: YOUR EARLY FORM GUIDE
1: BIG ORANGE
Ray Thomas: Big Orange has to carry a handicap which no international has been able to shoulder and win a Melbourne Cup — Protectionist holds the record with 56.5kg — but he is a strong, big horse and comes into the race in tremendous form. He has a good barrier but races up on the speed, makes his own luck and he ran a good fifth in the race last year. It would be no surprise to see him improve on that position.
Ron Dufficy: He is a better horse than last year, his record proves that as he has won the Princess Of Wales’s Stakes for the second year in a row and he fought of all those horses in the Goodwood Cup. I’m convinced he didn’t go hard enough last year and they will be more aggressive this time. I like others but concede he is a chance.
2: OUR IVANHOWE
Thomas: He was one of many luckless runners last year. I feel he is ready to run well again this year after an excellent Caulfield Cup effort. Trained by Lee Freedman who has won five Melbourne Cups and I feel he can run top 10 again — but how much closer to first he can be is the question mark.
Dufficy: I agree, he is handicapper weighted right up to his best and he is a seven-year-old. He has had problems with his feet but he seems to be over them now. He did beat Hauraki in the Doomben Cup last winter and his Caulfield Cup run was very good. I’ve got no knock on the horse but not for me.
3: CURREN MIROTIC
Thomas: What do you say about him? No nine-year-old has won the Melbourne Cup and no horse has ever come out of barrier 18 and won the race so the odds are stacked against Curren Mirotic. In saying that, he has very good 3200m form and if he brings his best to Flemington, he could run a big race here.
Dufficy: Let’s face it, he’s a nine-year-old who has not won for three years. I’m hearing the riding instructions will be to lead at all costs. I’m a huge fan of Japanese form but whether he has the right profile for the Melbourne Cup I highly doubt.
NO TIME? 10-MINUTE GUIDE TO CUP
4: BONDI BEACH
Thomas: This horse does interest me, Ronnie. I have watched him at Werribee and physically he is a different horse to last year, bigger, stronger and more mature now. His lead-up form in Ireland this year is very good, he has the right jockey, right trainer and right barrier. He is one of the best of the international runners.
Dufficy: Bondi Beach has a master trainer in Aidan O’Brien who I thought seemed very negative about bringing the horse out last year. This time he has had 12 months to mature and there is a more positive vibe about him this spring. A few people want to pot his trackwork at Werribee but the market tells everything and I’ve got a feeling this horse could start favourite. There is a big push for him around town. I respect him but I like others more in the race.
5: EXOSPHERIC
Thomas: I loved his run for third in the Caulfield Cup but immediately after the race trainer Lee Freedman said it was likely this horse would miss the Melbourne Cup. It speaks volumes for how well the horse came through Caulfield and has progressed since that the Freedmans are running him today. The Caulfield Cup form is historically the strongest and he can finish top 10 — but I don’t think he can win the race.
Dufficy: He went very well in the Caulfield Cup and if there is a bit more jar out of the track it will suit him. It would be no surprise to see him run a competitive race but I feel he is a work in progress for next year.
MATT STEWART, DANNY RUSSELL & GILBERT GARDINER DISCUSS ALL THE MELBOURNE CUP CONTENDERS
6: HARTNELL
Thomas: Hartnell is my tip to win the race, Ronnie. He is back on the bigger, roomier track which he needs — he didn’t get around Moonee Valley that well although he would not have beaten Winx anyway. But I can’t get out of my mind his Turnbull Stakes win when he toyed with Jameka. He meets Jameka 1.5kg better to the weights for thumping her in that race. Hartnell is a winner over 3200m as a three-year-old so he can run the Cup trip. More importantly, he is settling so well in his races this spring and that is such an important factor. If the Hartnell we have seen in Sydney and in the Turnbull turns up he wins the Melbourne Cup.
Dufficy: I definitely agree, Ray. I can’t believe how many knockers there are for this horse around town but I like him, too. As you said, he meets Jameka better at the weights for thrashing her in the Turnbull Stakes. I know he has a few convictions for his two 3200m run in Australia but he was beaten in those races because he was too aggressive. This campaign he has been settling well in his races now I have no problems with him over the trip. He is in so well at the weights, he is back to a handicap and he has beaten the handicapper. I can’t get away from Hartnell.
7: WHO SHOT THEBARMAN
Thomas: This race should be run at a genuine tempo and if that is the case then the genuine two-milers like Who Shot Thebarman are not without some chance. He appreciated the solid tempo last start when second in the Moonee Valley Cup. He did run third in a Melbourne Cup two years ago and perhaps could sneak into the minor money again if everything goes his way. He does have Chris Waller and Hugh Bowman in his corner, too.
Dufficy: The Waller-Bowman factor is his biggest advantage plus his ability to run two miles. I can see him chipping away and maybe filling a place without getting too excited by him.
8: WICKLOW BRAVE
Thomas: I feel Wicklow Brave is the best chance among the internationals. I’ve loved the way he has been working at Werribee, he just looks a natural stayer. I respect his trainer, Willie Mullins, and Frankie Dettori is overdue to win this race. Wicklow Brave comes into this race off his tough win in the Irish St Leger. I will leave it to Frankie to get over from 24 — without knocking half the field down this year!
Dufficy: Yes, the right people are tipping this horse so I am very, very wary of Wicklow Brave. I know it was only a four-horse field in the Irish St Leger but he beat a 10/1 on favourite in Order Of St George and there was 16 lengths to the third horse, Trip To Paris. He has settled in well, I expect him to go forward and he is a tough stayer. I am very guarded about him as their has been the right push for him the last couple of days.
9: ALMOONQITH
Thomas: This horse ran the best closing sectional in the Caulfield Cup and is a genuine two-miler. Has he the class to win a Melbourne Cup? I doubt it, but his trainer David Hayes is very bullish about the stayer’s chances.
Dufficy: It was a good run in the Caulfield Cup but what worries me is that his three Flemington runs have been the worst of his career. I can’t get away from that fact so I prefer others.
10: GALLANTE
Thomas: The Sydney Cup winner who ran well first-up this spring but then ran below his best in the Moonee Valley Cup, albeit with some excuses. I can’t have him, Duff.
Dufficy: I’m not underrating Gallante, Ray, especially if we get rain. He was great winning the Sydney Cup and I thought he over-achieved first-up when second to Jameka. He was carved up in the lead at Moonee Valley so I’m putting a line through that run. He had been one of the most talked about Melbourne Cup horses before that race and he has had one bad run when he was savaged in the lead and suddenly is completely forgotten. He is not the worst $51 chance to run in a Melbourne Cup.
11: GRAND MARSHAL
Thomas: Grand Marshal appreciated the solid speed in the Moonee Valley Cup and scored a grinding win. He is a Sydney Cup winner, a tough, proven two-miler and he can run top 10 but it would be a real surprise if he won a Melbourne Cup.
Dufficy: I’m inclined to agree but he was running well last year before being knocked down in the straight. He seems to have the wood on Who Shot Thebarman once they get out beyond 2400m as he has run down his stablemate in the Sydney Cup and Moonee Valley Cup.
12: JAMEKA
Thomas: The key to her chances was drawing a good barrier. From the three gate she can be put to sleep, inside runners with cover, and gets every chance to run the 3200m. She is inclined to throw her head about in races which gives the impression she isn’t settling but her trainer Ciaron Maher is adamant that she is not over-racing, she is just being Jameka. Her breeding suggests she won’t run 3200m downhill but sometimes you have to trust your eye and she won an Oaks here last year and last start romped away with the Caulfield Cup in the manner of a true stayer. She has to carry a lot of weight for a mare, in fact the only mare to carry more than 54.5kg and win this race is the great Makybe Diva. That might be the leveller but I have her as a top three chance and if things go her way, she can win the Cups double.
Dufficy: I think you have explained it well, mate, The draw is a big help but I have thought she has been under the odds all the way through considering the weight turnaround with Hartnell from the Turnbull Stakes, But this bloke, Ciaron Maher, is a master when it comes to planning for a race as he invariably gets the result. I have to bet against her for those reasons. As for her pedigree page, it has me shaking in my boots.
13: HEARTBREAK CITY
Thomas: There is a good vibe about this horse. He comes out of an Ebor Handicap where he was a very dominant winner. His trainer is held in the highest regard and the “Magic Man” Joao Moreira committed to this horse some weeks ago. He is a great each way chance.
Dufficy: If one of the raiders is going to win this race without a lead-up run it is this horse. He has won four from five this year and I am very guarded about him. His win in the Ebor was outstanding, he unleashed a terrific turn of speed and left Oceanographer many lengths behind. He is an enormous chance and might be over the odds on the Australian tote as many punters are hesitant to back a horse they have not seen race here.
14: SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD
Thomas: The Caulfield Cup didn’t work out for this horse but after the race trainer John Thompson pointed out this stayer has never really performed at Caulfield so he might just be a big-track horse. He would need to improve considerably on his last start loss. He is an $81 chance for a reason.
Dufficy: I liked him in the Caulfield Cup but the fact is although he did get tightened for room in the straight he was beaten eight lengths. Perhaps he peaked in The Metropolitan — I can’t have him.
15: EXCESS KNOWLEDGE
Thomas: He ran a great race in the Melbourne Cup last year but he got a perfect run that day. His recent form has been sound but he was beaten comfortably in the Moonee Valley Cup. A place chance at best.
Dufficy: He was one of the only horses that had every hope in the race last year. This spring he has had the right preparation but I would have liked him to do more at Moonee Valley. I don’t know if he is going as well as he was last year.
16: BEAUTIFUL ROMANCE
Thomas: I can’t have her Ronnie. I don’t think she has the right form to win a Melbourne Cup. The Godolphin stable invariably bring competitive chances to this race every year so that stands her in good stead but I think she will struggle.
Dufficy: She is an inexperienced mare and looks a work in progress for me. I can’t have her, either.
17: ALMANDIN
Thomas: I’m very keen on Almandin, he has a tremendous chance. He has won the Harry White Classic and then the Bart Cummings Classic where he put paid to his rivals in a few bounds. He gets in with 52kg and this is a horse that two years ago defeated Protectionist at Group 2 level in Germany. Protectionist then trained on to win the Melbourne Cup that year. Almandin has taken two years to overcome a tendon injury and get back to racing but he is making up for lost time. He is a definite winning chance.
Dufficy: I reckon he is massive odds. He has never been beaten at a staying distance and his last two wins have been outstanding. The Bart Cummings looks a much stronger race now with a couple coming out of that race and running well in the Caulfield Cup. Kerrin McEvoy is riding in sensational form, he knows how to ride a stayer, and he knows how to win a Melbourne Cup. There are a lot of positives about this horse. A big winning chance.
18: ASSIGN
Thomas: A grinding stayer who scored a tough win in the Herbert Power after being soundly beaten by Almandin in the Bart Cummings. He is the outsider of the Lloyd Williams quartet.
Dufficy: Assign’s stablemate, Almandin, is better than him. He beat an ordinary lot in the Herbert Power but he has a good record. I don’t want to bag him but he won’t be beating Almandin home.
19: GREY LION
Thomas: I feel he should have beaten Qewy in the Geelong Cup. It was a solid run, a strong staying effort, he comes out the Cumani camp which knows how to peak horses for this race and his rider, Glen Boss, is a three-time Cup winner. Good lightweight chance and over the odds at $41.
Dufficy: Grey Lion is a one-pace, grinding type of horse to my eye. He can keep battling away but he won’t be carrying any of my money.
20: OCEANOGRAPHER
Thomas: Oceanographer — his win in the Lexus was as good a Cup trial as you could imagine. He gave the leader Tom Melbourne, who wasn’t stopping, a huge start on the turn and mowed him down late, unleashing a final 200m sectional of 11.41s. Quite simply, if he brings that form to Flemington, he will win. The concern I have is that it will be three starts in 13 days for a European stayer used to having his races well-spaced — and he is very short in betting now.
Dufficy: Two great trials from this horse in the Geelong Cup and then his Lexus win. It is very hard to win a Melbourne Cup as an afterthought which he was being a late nomination for Derby Day where he had to win to get into the field. Did he leave his Melbourne Cup form on the track last Saturday? I also think the market has overreacted to his win but I have taken the big odds about this horse and his trainer, Charlie Appleby, is doing great things with his stayers this spring. If he reproduces last Saturday’s he should be hard to beat.
21; SECRET NUMBER
Thomas: We saw this horse last year when he ran second in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes behind Dandino but he has only raced once since winning in England. In fact, he has only had four starts in three years and I don’t think he has the seasoning to win the Melbourne Cup.
Dufficy: I’m not so sure, Ray. He has obviously had something wrong with injury problems but he showed his ability running second to Dandino last spring. His Doonside Cup win was impressive and I’m wary of him.
22: PENTATHLON
Thomas: It would be great to see John Wheeler in the Melbourne Cup mix again but I doubt his horse is good enough to be in the finish. He ran a sound race at Moonee Valley but was well beaten in the Lexus Stakes. He will run 3200m but he won’t run it fast enough to win this race.
Dufficy: I can’t have him either, I thought John Wheeler was a battler and here he is paying up $50,000 to run her so he obviously thinks he has some chance of doubling his money with a top 10 finish so good luck to him.
23: QEWY
Thomas: I can’t work out why Qewy is $23 after winning the Geelong Cup and Oceanographer is at $6.50. I know Charlie Appleby doesn’t think there is that much between them. Qewy has no weight on his back and is a good each way chance.
Dufficy: I’m not arguing with you, he is over the odds. He has a good racing pattern and will be up on the speed but to win a Melbourne Cup you need to have some acceleration in the modern era which I feel he lacks.
24: ROSE OF VIRGINIA
Thomas: The committee was debating whether to include or exclude Rose Of Virginia from the Cup field but she will line up at $201 and won’t be winning.
Dufficy: I wish the owners the best of luck as they have put their money and dreams on the table but it won’t turn out real good for them.
DUFF’S CUP TIPS
1 HARTNELL
2 Oceanographer
3 Almandin
4 Heartbreak City
RAY’S CUP TIPS
1 HARTNELL
2 Wicklow Brave
3 Jameka
4 Almandin
Originally published as Melbourne Cup Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy
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