Melbourne Cup 2016: Early form guide for the great race
WILL it be an international star like Wicklow brave? Is it Aussie mare Jameka? How about a roughie in Pentathlon? Pick a Melbourne Cup winner with our comprehensive form guide. LATEST ODDS
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THE Melbourne Cup 2016 is almost upon us and this is the must read form that will help you find the winner for this year’s race.
The barrier draw has been done and it’s all shaping well for Godolphin whose grip on Australian racing’s Holy Grail — the $6 million Melbourne Cup — has tightened.
The “Blue Army” will have five of the 24 runners in Tuesday’s Cup, including the favourite Hartnell and second elect Oceanographer.
Lexus Stakes winner Oceanographer will jump from barrier 11 — the most successful in Cup history — and Hartnell has drawn alongside in gate 12.
The race, as always will take place at Flemington Racecourse at 3pm on Tuesday November 1.
MATT STEWART, DANNY RUSSELL & GILBERT GARDINER BREAK DOWN THE CUP RUNNERS
MELBOURNE CUP (3200m)
Flemington, Tuesday 3pm
Group 1, $6.2 million (barrier in parentheses)
1. Big Orange 57kg (7)
2. Our Ivanhowe 57kg (6)
3. Curren Mirotic 56.5kg (18)
4. Bondi Beach 56kg (5)
5. Exospheric 56kg (13)
6. Hartnell 56kg (12)
7. Who Shot Thebarman 56kg (20)
8. Wicklow Brave 56kg (24)
9. Almoonqith 54.5kg (19)
10. Gallante 54.5kg (2)
11. Grand Marshal 54.5kg (9)
12. Jameka 54.5kg (3)
13. Heartbreak City 54kg (23)
14. Sir John Hawkwood 54kg (14)
15. Excess Knowledge 53.5kg (21)
16. Beautiful Romance 52.5kg (1)
17. Almandin 52kg 9 (17)
18. Assign 52kg (22)
19. Grey Lion 52kg (16)
20. Oceanographer 52kg (11)
21. Secret Number 52kg (10)
22. Pentathlon 51.5kg (4)
23. Qewy 51.5kg (15)
24. Rose of Virginia 51kg (8)
MELBOURNE CUP: TAB FIXED ODDS
THE TRACK
TRACK: Good 3
RAIL: True
WEATHER: Shower or two, 18C
Leading Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley and Matt Stewart give their opinions on each of the 24 runners in the race that stops a nation on Tuesday.
THE VITAL STATISTICS
1. BIG ORANGE (7) 57kg
Duke Of Marmalade-Miss Brown To You
6yo bay gelding
JOCKEY: JAMES SPENCER
TRAINER: MICHAEL BELL
Starts: 18: 7-2-1
Prizemoney: $1,495,511
Biggest wins: 2015, ‘16 Group 2 Goodwood Cup (3219m) at Goodwood
Strike rate: Win 39% Place 56%
Win range: 2012-3214m
Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $21 Current $12
FORM: Powered away for 2-1/2 len win of 7 (5) $9 58.0 The Grey Gatsby, Exospheric 2414m G B — Newmarket G2 P’cess Of Wales Good July 7. Made it two in a row with 1-1/4 len win of 14 (8) $3.80F 61.0 Pallasator, Sheikhzayedroad 3219m GB — Goodwood G2 Goodwood Cup Good July 28. Ran 5th in last year’s race when always handy and toughed it out. Returns in just as good a form having made it back-to-back wins in the Goodwood Cup and will be in this for a long way.
MANLEY SAYS: Front-running English stayer who is back for a second tilt at the Melbourne Cup. Drew the outside barrier and came across to lead in the early stages last year and fought on well for fifth beaten only 2.3 lengths. In similar if not better form this year having won Group 2 races at his past two starts the Princess Of Wales Stakes and the Goodwood Cup for a second year in a row.
STEWART SAYS: The Orange was far from a lemon in last year’s Cup, running a close fifth after working from a wide gate. Form probably a touch better this year. Great barrier. Niggle is he must carry equal topweight and win.
2. OUR IVANHOWE (6) 57kg
Soldier Hollow-Indigo Girl
7yo bay horse
JOCKEY: DWAYNE DUNN
TRAINER: LEE & ANTHONY FREEDMAN
Starts: 21: 6-2-1
Prizemoney: $1,467,973
Biggest win: 2015 Group 1 Doomben Cup (2000m)
Strike rate: Win 27% Place 41%
Win range: 2000-2400m
Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $26 Current $41
FORM: Always in a similar spot when 9-1/4 len 8th of 12 (1) $21 57.5 Hartnell 2000m F’ton G1 Turnbull Stakes Good (3) Oct. 2. Stuck to his guns when 5-1/2 len 6th of 16 (5) $21 56.5 Jameka 2400m C’field G1 Caulfield Cup Good (3) Oct. 15. One of the unlucky runners in last year’s Cup but still finished top ten and was less than four lengths from the winner. Had the fourth-best closing 200m in the Caulfield Cup and entitled to respect here.
MANLEY SAYS: Former German galloper who stuck on well in the Caulfield Cup after having had a tough run. The way he’s racing the step up to 3200m will suit. Lee Freedman also knows about winning Melbourne Cups having trained five winners. Likes it wet.
STEWART SAYS: Huge horse who was skittled when surging along the rails last year. Got back in the Caulfield Cup and lurched home. Flemington a much better track for him. Same niggle as Big Orange: Can he give weight to all but one rival and win? At least he’s drawn a decent gate.
3. CURREN MIROTIC (18) 56.5kg
Heart’s Cry-Star Mie
9yo chestnut gelding
JOCKEY: TOMMY BERRY
TRAINER: OSAMU HIRATA
Starts: 37: 6-6-6
Prizemoney: $4,005,361
Biggest win: 2013 Group 2 Kinko Sho (2000m) at Chukyo
Strike rate: Win 10% Place 38%
Win range: 1800-2000m
Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $21 Current $41
FORM: Safely held when 9-1/4 len 11th of 17 (10) $87 58.0 Marialite 2200m Japan G1 Takarazuka Good June 26. Returned from a break with 6-1/4 len 9th of 12 (12) $24.40 56.0 Gold Actor 2200m Jap — Nakayama G2 Sankei Sho Good Sept 25. Veteran Japanese campaigner who has been placed in the past two runnings of the G1 Tenno Sho over this trip back home. Hasn’t won for three years but the Japanese don’t make the trip for practice and he must be kept very safe.
MANLEY SAYS: Japanese stayer with sound credentials. His last two starts over 3200m he’s been placed in the Tenno Sho at Kyoto, one of Japan’s great races having finished third last year behind Gold Ship and second this year behind Kitasan Black. No nine-year-old gelding has won the Melbourne Cup.
STEWART SAYS: Japanese greybeard, the Pat Morita of Cup contenders. They say he goes like the clappers and sticks on. Japanese horses have been heartbreakers in this race. Anything is possible.
4. BONDI BEACH (5) 56kg
Galileo-One Moment In Time
5yo bay horse
JOCKEY: RYAN MOORE
TRAINER: AIDAN O’BRIEN
Starts: 10: 4-3-2
Prizemoney: $559,619
Biggest wins: 2016 Group 3 Vintage Crop Stakes (2800m) at Navan, 2015 Group 3 Curragh Cup (2816m)
Strike rate: Win 40% Place 90%
Win range: 2414m-2816m
Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $26 Current $10
FORM: Returned from a let-up with 1/2 len, 1-1/2 len 3rd of 6 (2) $2.25F 62.5 Stellar Mass, Almela 2414m Ire — Leopardstown G3 Ballyroan Stks Good Aug. 4. Stuck to his task when 1/2 len, 2 len 3rd of 5 (5) $8 62.5 Zhukova, Us Army Ranger 2414m Ire — Leopardstown G3 Enterprise Stks Good Sept 10. Classy Irish galloper who returns after failing in this race last year when caught in the worst part of the track. Carries 3.5kg more this year but stable must be respected and he comes into calculations.
MANLEY SAYS: Another who was skittled in last year’s Melbourne Cup. His UK form was better last year in the lead-up to this. He’s in the world’s most powerful stable. Can’t dismiss.
STEWART SAYS: Aidan O’Brien is overdue. Lloyd Williams has a knack. Ryan Moore and a good barrier don’t hurt either. Put a line through last year’s 16th when knocked out of the contest. Must be considered.
5. EXOSPHERIC (13) 56kg
Beat Hollow-Bright And Clear
5yo bay horse
JOCKEY: DAMIEN OLIVER
TRAINER: LEE AND ANTHONY FREEDMAN
Starts: 11: 4-0-3
Prizemoney: $521,115
Biggest win: 2016 Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes (2414m) at Newmarket
Strike rate: Win 36% Place 64%
Win range: 2012-2414m
Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $26 Current $21
FORM: Stuck to his task when 4-1/2 len 5th of 12 (2) $29 60.0 Postponed 2092m G B — York G1 Juddmonte Intl Good Aug. 17. Far from disgraced when 3 len, 3/4 len 3rd of 16 (3) $15 55.5 Jameka, Scottish 2400m C’field G1 Caulfield Cup Good (3) Oct. 15. Nice effort in the Caulfield Cup and sure to have benefited from that run. Hasn’t raced beyond 2400 metres so last bit is the test but worth some thought.
MANLEY SAYS: Former English stayer who ran home strongly in the Caulfield Cup at his Australian debut to finish third behind Jameka. Should be improved by that. Stepping up to 3200m for the first time.
STEWART SAYS: The track ambulance had been beating him home in Werribee gallops before a surprisingly spritely effort in the Caulfield Cup. They say he now can at least keep up with the ambulance. Damien Oliver says “good racehorse, poor worker’’ but work has improved. Ollie missed Derby Day, which is a bit like swiping a toffee apple from a child. He’ll be hungry.
6. HARTNELL (12) 56kg
Authorized-Debonnaire
6yo bay gelding
JOCKEY: JAMES McDONALD
TRAINER:JOHN O’SHEA
Starts: 27: 10-6-1
Prizemoney: $2,673,999
Biggest wins: 2015 Group 1 The BMW (2400m) at Rosehill Gardens, 2016 Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington
Strike rate: Win 35.71% Place 57.14%
Win range: 1600-3219m
Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $35 Current $6
FORM: Dominated his rivals to score 3-1/4 len win of 12 (3) $1.90F 57.5 Jameka, Tally 2000m F’ton G1 Turnbull Stakes Good (3) Oct. 2. No match for the winner when 8 len 2nd of 10 (7) $5 59.0 Winx 2040m M Valley G1 Cox Plate Soft (5) Oct. 22. Got blown away by Winx in the Cox Plate but won’t have to contend with her here. Failed in this race last year when he drew wide but he’s going better now and should be right in the finish.
MANLEY SAYS: The second banana in the match race with Winx and although no match for her he still ran well and lost no admirers. Form beforehand was extraordinary. Another who suffered interference in the 2015 Melbourne Cup. Has won over 3200m in England.
up, but he is going much, much better this year. Has won over 3200m and is the one to beat.
STEWART SAYS: You could interpret his Cox Plate second two ways; he beat all but Winx in our weight-for-age championship, escaped a weight penalty, and is the classy, proven two-miler in a relatively weak Cup. Or his flailing second was a confidence crusher and the margin so great he may have peaked on his campaign. Only one interpretation will be correct.
7. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (20) 56kg
Yamanin Vital-Ears Carol
8yo bay gelding
JOCKEY: HUGH BOWMAN
TRAINER: CHRIS WALLER
Starts: 36: 9-6-2
Prizemoney: $2,235,446
Biggest win: 2014 Group 1 Auckland Cup (3200m), 2015 Group 2 Zipping Classic at Sandown
Strike rate: Win 25% Place 47%
Win range: 1600-3200m
Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $51 Current $26
FORM: Passed a couple late when 3-1/2 len 7th of 13 (8) $6 57.0 Sir John Hawkwood 2400m R’wick G1 The Metro Good (3) Oct. 1. Got run down late when 3/4 len 2nd of 10 (9) $4.40 57.0 Grand Marshal 2500m M Valley G2 M. Valley Cup Soft (5) Oct. 22. Third in this race two years ago then should have finished closer last year but for suffering interference in the closing stages. Looks to be peaking at the right time and can’t be ignored.
MANLEY SAYS: Old fashioned stayer who just keeps coming. He’s contesting his third Melbourne Cup having finished third in 2014 and last year his chances were ruined in the straight when he was flattened yet somehow was only beaten four lengths. He’s right on song judging by his second in the fast run Moonee Valley Cup last star. The winner of last year’s Cup, Prince Of Penzance finished second in the same race.
STEWART SAYS: Bit of a poor man’s Red Cadeaux. This is his third Cup after honourable efforts in the past two years. Impossible to envisage him winning, but not hard to picture him running top eight.
8. WICKLOW BRAVE (24) 56kg
Beat Hollow-Mondaine
8yo bay gelding
JOCKEY: FRANKIE DETTORI
TRAINER: WILLIAM MULLINS
Starts: 29: 9-3-5
Prizemoney: $897,408
Biggest win: 2016 Group 1 Irish St Leger (2816m)
Strike rate: Win 31% Place 59%
Win range: 2816-3220m
Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $101 Current $16
FORM: Held his ground when 3-1/2 len, nk 3rd of 7 (3) $7 58.5 Quest For More, Pallasator 3299m GB — York G2 Lonsdale Cup Good Aug. 19. Caused an upset with 1/2 len win of 4 (1) $12 62.0 Order Of St George, Trip To Paris 2816m Ire — Curragh G1 Irish St Leger Dead Sept 11. Veteran UK campaigner who has successfully mixed flat and jumps racing and arrives here in career-best form off a win over the highly-credentialed Order Of St George and Trip to Paris who was fourth in this race last year. Handles all types of ground and looms as a legitimate threat.
MANLEY SAYS: Tough Irish stayer who defeated some smart stayers at his last start to win the Irish St Leger. His trainer’s last two Melbourne Cup runners have run fourth and second.
STEWART SAYS: Willie Mullins has run three horses in the Cup and two were placed. Has all the right form in the right races, but barrier draw has him closer to the Mad Mouse at the Showgrounds than the inside rail.
9. ALMOONQITH (19) 54.5kg
Dynaformer-Bohemian Lady
7yo bay horse
JOCKEY: MICHAEL WALKER
TRAINER: D & B HAYES AND T DABERNIG
Starts: 31: 6-3-1
Prizemoney: $765,125
Biggest wins: 2015 Group 3 Geelong Cup (2400m), 2015 LR Sandown Cup (3200m)
Strike rate: Win 19% Place 32%
Win range: 1600-3200m
Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $35 Current $26
FORM: Had every chance when 6-3/4 len 8th of 11 (2) $8 58.0 Almandin 2500m F’ton G3 Bart Cummings Good (3) Oct. 2. Was blocked for a run near the turn before finishing 4-1/4 len 4th of 16 (2) $71 54.0 Jameka 2400m C’field G1 Caulfield Cup Good (3) Oct. 15. Produced a real eye-catcher in the Caulfield Cup and was the only runner in the race to break 12 seconds for the closing 200m. Failed in this race last year but warrants consideration on his latest effort.
MANLEY SAYS: Aside from the win of Jameka he handed in the best Melbourne Cup trial in the Caulfield Cup flying home for fourth, recording the fastest last 200m. Another whose chances were ruined last year by interference. 3200m winner. Right in this.
STEWART SAYS: Lost in the wilderness pretty much since last year’s Geelong Cup win but flew home in the Caulfield Cup when second best behind Jameka. Gut says not good enough, especially from the wide alley, but the Caulfield Cup run says maybe.
10. GALLANTE (2) 54.5kg
Montjeu-Crazy Volume
6yo bay gelding
JOCKEY: BLAKE SHINN
TRAINER: ROBERT HICKMOTT
Starts: 16: 4-1-3
Prizemoney: $2,001,794
Biggest wins: Biggest wins: 2016 Group 1 Sydney Cup at Royal Randwick (3200m), 2014 Group 1 Gp De Paris at Longchamp.
Strike rate: Win 25% Place 50%
Win range: 1600-3200m
Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $35 Current $41
FORM: No match for the winner when 3-3/4 len 2nd of 16 (5) $51 58.5 Jameka 2000m C’field G3 Naturalism Stks Soft (5) Sept 17. Didn’t finish it off when 13-3/4 len 7th of 10 (4) $3.80F 58.0 Grand Marshal 2500m M Valley G2 M. Valley Cup Soft (5) Oct. 22. Not suited by the pattern of the day at Moonee Valley and that run can be totally forgiven. Won the Sydney Cup in the autumn at his only other run over this trip and gets a nice weight swing on Jameka from their last meeting so looks a chance at big odds.
MANLEY SAYS: 2016 Sydney Cup winner who was progressing well until his failure in the Moonee Valley Cup but was gassed in the lead and had to compound. Much better than that and worth another chance.
STEWART SAYS: Moonee Valley Cup was forgivable. Was gassed in front on track suiting swoopers. Dropped right out but far from a disaster. Connections reckon he can win if the track is slow to heavy. Odds of that about the same as Rose Of Virginia’s odds of winning this.
11. GRAND MARSHAL (9) 54.5kg
Dansili-Marqarula
7yo brown gelding
JOCKEY: BEN MELHAM
TRAINER: CHRIS WALLER
Starts: 37: 8-6-5
Prizemoney: $2,028,792
Biggest win: 2015 Group 1 Sydney Cup (3200m) at Royal Randwick, 2016 Group 2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500m)
Strike rate: Win 22% Place 51%
Win range: 1600-3200m
Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $35 Current $31
FORM: Didn’t finish it off when 4-3/4 len 9th of 13 (1) $21 54.5 Sir John Hawkwood 2400m R’wick G1 The Metro Good (3) Oct. 1. Finished best for 3/4 len win of 10 (6) $19 58.0 Who Shot Thebarman, Pentathlon 2500m M Valley G2 M. Valley Cup Soft (5) Oct. 22. Genuine stayer who nearly fell in last year’s Cup after suffering severe interference in the straight. Looks to be on track with a strong win in the Moonee Valley Cup and could be worth including in trifectas.
MANLEY SAYS: Died in the wool stayer who was suited by the fast pace in the Moonee Valley Cup which he swept home to win. Three starts over 3200m for a win in the Sydney Cup and two placings. Was flattened in this race last year. Should run well.
STEWART SAYS: Pretty much a no-name Sydney stayer, but he is a true two-miler and his runs in Melbourne in spring always seem a fair bit better than his Sydney form. If the Japanese horse and one or two others set a kamikaze tempo, the Marshal will be grinding late.
12. JAMEKA (3) 54.5kg (including 2.0kg penalty)
Myboycharlie-Mine Game
4yo bay mare
JOCKEY: NICK HALL
TRAINER: CIARON MAHER
Starts: 19: 5-4-4
Prizemoney: $3,670,725
Biggest wins: 2016 Caulfield Cup (2400m), VRC Crown Oaks (2500m) at Flemington
Strike rate: Win 26.32% Place 68.42%
Win range: 1400-2500m
Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $35 Current $8
FORM: No match for the winner when 3-1/4 len 2nd of 12 (6) $5 54.5 Hartnell 2000m F’ton G1 Turnbull Stakes Good (3) Oct. 2. Always in a lovely spot before scoring 3 len win of 16 (11) $4.20F 52.5 Scottish, Exospheric 2400m C’field G1 Caulfield Cup Good (3) Oct. 15. Had all the favours in the Caulfield Cup and won accordingly. Has done little wrong in her preparation towards this race and looks a serious player.
MANLEY SAYS: Top class staying mare who annihilated her rivals to win the Caulfield Cup last start. Doesn’t know how to run a bad race and although taking on 3200m for the first time is sure to go close.
STEWART SAYS: They doubted her stamina before the Caulfield Cup and she streeted them. She’d never previously shaped as a two-miler but her young trainer has a remarkable knack with stayers and he’s super confident.
13. HEARTBREAK CITY (23) 54kg
Lando-Moscow nights
7yo bay gelding
JOCKEY: JOAO MOREIRA
TRAINER: TONY MARTIN
Starts: 22: 6-0-3
Prizemoney: $506,210
Biggest win: 2016 Ebor Handicap (2816m) at York
Strike rate: Win 29% Place 43%
Win range: 2000-3319m
Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $151 Current $17
FORM: Too strong late when scoring len win of 12 (0) $4F 64.5 St Stephens Green, Mighty Concorde 3219m Ire — Galway 4yo+ Hrdl Good July 29. Powered away for 4 len win of 20 (15) $8.50 55.5 Shrewd, Quick Jack 2816m G B — York Ebor Hcp (C2) Good Aug. 20. Late bloomer who had an inauspicious career in France but has blossomed under Tony Martin, successfully mixing jumps and flat racing including a last-start victory by four lengths in the Ebor at York. Strikes a tough assignment for his first crack at a stakes race and this class might stretch him.
MANLEY SAYS: In form Irish galloper who has won four of his last five starts, including two hurdle races. Won the Ebor easily last start at York which is a good lead-up race for the Melbourne Cup. Sar jockey Joao Moreira rides.
STEWART SAYS: Well named, given the rotten barrier. Won the Ebor (tick) and has won a couple of hurdle races (tick, so did Vintage Crop). But the gate...
14. SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD (14) 54kg
Sir Percy-Athene
8yo bay gelding
JOCKEY: BLAKE SPRIGGS
TRAINER: JOHN THOMPSON
Starts: 29: 8-6-1
Prizemoney: $1,172,843
Biggest wins: 2016 Group 1 The Metropolitan (2400m) at Royal Randwick, 2016 Group 3 Sky High Stakes at Rosehill Gardens
Strike rate: Win 28% Place 52%
Win range: 1800-2400m
Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $101 Current $81
STEWART SAYS:
FORM: Always handy before scoring 1-1/4 len win of 13 (6) $6 54.0 Antonio Giuseppe, Allergic 2400m R’wick G1 The Metro Good (3) Oct. 1. Was checked near the 2000m before finishing 7-1/2 len 10th of 16 (4) $13 53.5 Jameka 2400m C’field G1 Caulfield Cup Good (3) Oct. 15. Failed to make an impression in the Caulfield Cup and would need to lift to be competitive in this. Hasn’t raced beyond 2600m and others have stronger claims.
MANLEY SAYS: Struck trouble mid-race in the Caulfield Cup and trainer said he didn’t handle the track. Talented Sydney stayer who worked well on Tuesday at Flemington. Query in this class.
STEWART SAYS: Not sure what he’s done to deserve the knighthood. Handy Sydney stayer at best.
15. EXCESS KNOWLEDGE (21) 53.5kg
Monsun-Quenched
7yo brown horse
JOCKEY: VLAD DURIC
TRAINER: GAI WATERHOUSE & ADRIAN BOTT
Starts: 25: 5-6-3
Prizemoney: $740,742
Biggest win: 2015 Group 3 Lexus Stakes (2500m)
Strike rate: Win 20 Place 56%
Win range: 1300-2500m
Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $51 Current $71
FORM: Kept coming when 1-1/2 len, 1/2 len 3rd of 11 (3) $12 58.0 Almandin, Zanteca 2500m F’ton G3 Bart Cummings Good (3) Oct. 2. Stuck to his guns when 4-1/2 len 4th of 10 (2) $6.50 56.0 Grand Marshal 2500m M Valley G2 M. Valley Cup Soft (5) Oct. 22. Ran 7th in this race last year and has been competitive with many of these in his lead-up races. Perhaps a place.
MANLEY SAYS: Talented stayer whose six runs at 2400m plus have all been sound. Led into the straight last year and finished seventh beaten just over three lengths. Tried hard in the Moonee Valley Cup when not suited by the wet track.
STEWART SAYS: Gave his owners a thrill last year when he turned for home clear, before fading the last bit. Seems to be going about the same. Possible top-eight finisher.
16. BEAUTIFUL ROMANCE (1) 52.5kg
New Approach-Mazuna
5yo bay mare
JOCKEY: DAMIAN LANE
TRAINER: SAEED BIN SUROOR
Starts: 10: 3-0-3
Prizemoney: $375,678
Biggest win: 2016 Group 2 Middleton Stakes (2000m) at York
Strike rate: Win 30% Place 60%
Win range: 1600-2335m
Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $151 Current $71
FORM: Safely held when 19-1/2 len last of 5 (4) $13 60.5 Minding 1986m G B — Goodwood G1 Nassau Stakes Good July 30. Had every chance when 3-1/4 len, 2-3/4 len 3rd of 8 (2) $7.50 61.5 Journey, Lady Of Camelot 2414m GB — Newmarket LR Nayef Stakes Good Sept 23. Lightly-raced mare who is unknown in this distance range. Other imports look to have better claims.
MANLEY SAYS: Godolphin galloper who is a Group 1 placegetter and Group 2 winner. Recent form has been average though.
STEWART SAYS: Same barrier as Prince Of Penzance, but the inside was a travelator last year and suspect not such an advantage this time. Recent European form doesn’t read too flash.
17. ALMANDIN (17) 52kg (including 1.0kg penalty)
Monsun-Anatola
7yo bay gelding
JOCKEY: KERRIN McEVOY
TRAINER: ROBERT HICKMOTT
Starts: 11: 4-3-1
Prizemoney: $349,958
Biggest wins: 2014 Group 2 Unterneher (2200m) at Baden Baden, Germany; 2016 Group 3 Bart Cummings (2500m) at Flemington
Strike rate: Win 36% Place: 73%
Win range: 2040-2500m
Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $51 Current $10
FORM: Always handy before scoring 2 len win of 7 (2) $5 55.0 Assign, Black Tomahawk 2400m C’field LR Harry White Good (3) Sept 24. Made it two in a row with 1-1/2 len win of 11 (4) $3F 55.0 Zanteca, Excess Knowledge 2500m F’ton G3 Bart Cummings Good (3) Oct. 2. Import who has kept on improving since landing here and he gets in with no weight. Can give plenty of cheek.
MANLEY SAYS: Former German galloper who has struck form after being sidelined for over two years. Has won his last two starts impressively. With light-weight is going to take beating.
STEWART SAYS: Ex-European who has been powerful. Lloyd Williams has won this race four times and Almandin has emerged as the best of his quartet this year. Jockey has also won the race before.
18. ASSIGN (22) 52kg
Montjeu-Belesta
6yo bay/brown gelding
JOCKEY: KATELYN MALLYON
TRAINER: ROBERT HICKMOTT
Starts: 14: 5-2-2
Prizemoney: $529,006
Biggest wins: 2016 Group 2 Herbert Power (2400m) at Caulfield, 2016 LR Vic Cup (2000m) at Caulfield
Strike rate: Win 36% Place 64%
Win range: 1800-2400m
Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $151 Current $61
FORM: Always handy before finishing 2 len 2nd of 7 (5) $6.00 54.0 Almandin 2400m C’field LR Harry White Good (3) Sept 24. Led throughout to score sht 1/2 hd win of 6 (3) $3.10F 53.0 Big Memory, Pemberley 2400m C’field G2 Herbert Power Good (3) Oct. 8. Has found some form but he is yet to figure in three runs around here. Will give backers a sight but last bit will test him.
MANLEY SAYS: No match for his stablemate two starts ago before he led throughout to win the Herbert Power. Fit and will run the distance right out.
STEWART SAYS: Couldn’t go with stablemate Almandin two starts back but did the donkey work that day and was underdone. Good winner next start. Dream story if Katelyn Mallyon can follow Michelle Payne just a year later. She’ll have to ride a blinder from the tricky gate.
19. GREY LION (16) 52kg
Galileo-Grey Lilas
5yo grey horse
JOCKEY: GLEN BOSS
TRAINER: MATT CUMANI
Starts: 11: 4-1-2
Prizemoney: $149,057
Biggest win: 2015 Prix de Laigneville (2000m) at Chantilly
Strike rate: Win 33% Place 67%
Win range: 1600-2500m
Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $301 Current $41
FORM: Safely held when 8-1/4 len last of 8 (5) $27 59.0 Nearly Caught 3000m Fr — Deauville G2 Prix Kergorlay Good Aug. 21. Always handy before finishing lg hd 2nd of 8 (8) $6.50 55.0 Qewy 2400m Geelong G3 Geelong Cup Good (3) Oct. 19. Stuck to his task at Geelong but he goes to another level here. Place looks best.
MANLEY SAYS: Former French galloper who tried hard in the Geelong Cup but couldn’t run down the front runner. Encouraging effort and stays under notice.
STEWART SAYS: How do you assess the Geelong Cup form? He ran a brave second to Qewy, with a gap to Oceanographer, who leapt to second favouritism with his big Lexus win. But the track was leader-biased at Geelong and the feeling going in was that the internationals in it weren’t much good.
20. OCEANOGRAPHER (11) 52kg (including 1kg penalty)
Sea The Stars-Que Puntual
5yo bay gelding
JOCKEY: CHAD SCHOFIELD
TRAINER: CHARLIE APPLEBY
Starts: 10: 4-1-0
Prizemoney: $243,627
Biggest wins: 2016 Lexus Stakes at Flemington, 2016 100-rater (2112) at Doncaster
Strike rate: Win 40% Place 50%
Win range: 2012-2500m
Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $151 Current $9
FORM: Worked home nicely for lg hd, 3/4 len 3rd of 8 (5) $2.90F 54.0 Qewy, Grey Lion 2400m Geelong G3 Geelong Cup Good (3) Oct. 19. Bided his time at tail and produced a driving finish to reel in leader late lg nk win of 12 (8) $2.70F 54.0 Tom Melbourne, Tally 2500m F’ton G3 Lexus Stakes Good (3) Oct. 29. Godolphin galloper who surged into Cup calculations with a fast-driving victory in the Lexus on Saturday. Can again have the final say.
MANLEY SAYS: Slashing Cup trial with victory in the Lexus Stakes followed similarly powerful finish for third in the Geelong Cup. Has been heavily supported in betting. Major player.
STEWART SAYS: See Grey Lion — plus, he has to back up in three days and we’ll only know at 3.03pm if he can do that.
21. SECRET NUMBER (10) 52kg
Raven’s Pass-Mysterial
7yo bay gelding
JOCKEY: STEPHEN BASTER
TRAINER: SAEED BIN SUROOR
Starts: 13: 5-2-2
Prizemoney: $565,908
Biggest win: 2013 Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes (2414m) at Ascot, 2015 LR Stand Cup at Chester
Strike rate: Win 38% Place 69%
Win range: 1600-2475m
Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $35 Current $31
FORM: Got nabbed late when 1-3/4 len 2nd of 7 (5) $2.70F 58.0 Dandino 2600m F’ton G3 Queen’s Cup Soft (6) Nov 7. 1-3/4 len win of 9 (2) $7 57.0 Motdaw, Abdon 2012m G B — Ayr LR Doonside Cup Soft Sept 15. Sparingly-raced 7yo with a definite will-to-win and he has already had an experience of the Melbourne Cup Carnival having been runner-up to Dandino in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes here last year. Won his only start since then and handles all ground so keep very safe.
MANLEY SAYS: Came out here last year and missed a run in the Melbourne Cup and then finished second in the Queen’s Cup. Only had one run since for a win in a listed race at Ayr.
STEWART SAYS: Placed on this track over 2600m last year, which is a plus, and well drawn but doesn’t seem good enough.
22. PENTATHLON (4) 51.5kg
Pentire-Pinders Prize
5yo chestnut gelding
JOCKEY: MARK DU PLESSIS
TRAINER: JOHN WHEELER
Starts: 24: 5-1-3
Prizemoney: $158,628
Best performance: 2nd 2016 Group 1 Wellington Cup (3200m)
Strike rate: Win 21% Place 38%
Win range: 1800-3200m
Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $301 Current $101
FORM: Didn’t finish it off when 5-1/4 len 7th of 11 (1) $21.00 55.5 Almandin 2500m F’ton G3 Bart Cummings Good (3) Oct. 2. Kept coming when 3/4 len, 3-1/2 len 3rd of 10 (10) $61.00 55.0 Grand Marshal, Who Shot Thebarman 2500m M Valley G2 M. Valley Cup Soft (5) Oct. 22. Wasn’t far away on turn but only battled to line 11-1/2 len 7th of 12 (6) $41.00 55.0 Oceanographer 2500m F’ton G3 Lexus Stakes Good (3) Oct. 29. Improved run in the M Valley Cup two back but will need to improve on Saturday’s offering. Has form at the trip but a rough place hope only.
MANLEY SAYS: Tough Kiwi stayer who has a win and a second in three tries over 3200m. Was working home nicely for third in the Moonee Valley Cup.
STEWART SAYS: If half the field fell over, and they then unexpectedly ran an extra lap, he might finish top five.
23. QEWY (15) 51.5kg (including 0.5 penalty)
Street Cry-Princess Nada
7yo bay gelding
JOCKEY: STEPHEN BASTER
TRAINER: CHARLES APPLEBY
Starts: 22: 3-4-5
Prizemoney: $179,616
Biggest wins: 2014 Listed Heritage Stakes (1609m) at Leopardstown, 2016 Group 3 Geelong Cup
Strike rate: Win 17% Place 57%
Win range: 1609-3319m
Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $101 Current $26
FORM: Just missed when nk 2nd of 14 (4) $9 61.0 Elidor 2816m G B — Goodwood 3yo+ Hcp (C2) Good July 26. Led throughout to score lg hd win of 8 (6) $4 54.0 Grey Lion, Oceanographer 2400m Geelong G3 Geelong Cup Good (3) Oct. 19. Tough effort to score in the Geelong Cup and he will be in the firing line for a long way. Give some thought.
MANLEY SAYS: Godolphin raider who led throughout to win the Geelong Cup at his Australian debut. Dictated the speed on a front running track. Not sure he’s good enough but he tries hard.
STEWART SAYS: See Grey Lion and Oceanographer. The Geelong form is either red-hot or a mirage.
24. ROSE OF VIRGINIA (8) 50kg
Thorn Park-Centapin
7yo bay mare
JOCKEY: BEN THOMPSON
TRAINER: LEE & SHANNON HOPE
Starts: 36: 6-4-3
Prizemoney: $251,548
Best performance: 2nd 2016 Group 1 Auckland Cup (3200m)
Melbourne Cup odds: Opened $201 Current $101
FORM: Jumped awkwardly before finishing 5-1/2 len 9th of 11 (5) $101.00 52.5 Royal Rapture 1700m C’field Open Hcp Good (3) Sept 24. Always in a similar spot when 5-1/4 len 4th of 9 (3) $101.00 54.0 Vanbrugh 2000m C’field G3 Coongy Cup Good (3) Oct. 15. Midfield to corner but gave away tamely 15-1/2 len 11th of 12 (3) $71.00 54.0 Oceanographer 2500m F’ton G3 Lexus Stakes Good (3) Oct. 29. Runner-up in this year’s Auckland Cup over this trip but she was one of the first beaten in the Lexus and goes to another level here. Looks tested.
MANLEY SAYS: Ran second in the Auckland Cup over 3200m but form this campaign has been average.
STEWART SAYS: Seriously, who is Rose Of Virginia?
EXPERT TIPS
RAY THOMAS (Daily Telegraph/Sunday Telegraph)
1. HARTNELL
2. Wicklow Brave
3. Jameka
Roughie: Heartbreak City
RON DUFFICY (Sunday Telegraph)
1. HARTNELL
2. Oceanographer
3. Almandin
Roughie: Heartbreak City
MATT STEWART (Herald Sun)
1. BONDI BEACH
2. Heartbreak City
3. Oceanographer
4. Jameka
MICHAEL MANLEY (Herald Sun)
1. ALMANDIN
2. Oceanographer
3. Almoonqith
4. Wicklow Brave
DARYL TIMMS (Herald Sun)
1. WICKLOW BRAVE
2. Almandin
3. Hartnell
4. Oceanographer
LEO SCHLINK (Herald Sun)
1. WICKLOW BRAVE
2. Almandin
3. Big Orange
4. Hartnell
GLENN McFARLANE (Herald Sun)
1. HARTNELL
2. Jameka
3. Oceanographer
4. Almandin
BRAD DAVIDSON (Daily Telegraph/Sunday Telegraph)
1. HEARTBREAK CITY
2. Wicklow Brave
3. Jameka
Roughie: Qewy
NATHAN EXELBY (The Courier Mail/Sunday Mail)
1. HARTNELL
2. Wicklow Brave
3. Almandin
4. Jameka
BEN DORRIES (The Courier-Mail/Sunday Mail)
1. BIG ORANGE
2. Jameka
3. Hartnell
4. Almandin
ROBERT CRADDOCK (The Courier-Mail/Sunday Mail)
1. OUR IVANHOWE
2. Secret Number
3. Wicklow Brave
4. Gallante
BEN SCADDEN (The Advertsier)
1. HARTNELL
2. Wicklow Brave
3. Bondi Beach
4. Jameka
LINCOLN MOORE (The Advertiser)
1. HEARTBREAK CITY
2. Jameka
3. Big Orange
4. Hartnell
SCOTT WALSH (The Advertiser)
1. HARTNELL
2. Big Orange
3. Almandin
4. Oceanographer
GETTING THERE
TRAINS
Train services will depart from platforms eight and nine at Flinders St and platform eight at Southern Cross station every 10 minutes on Tuesday. The last train will depart Flemington at 9.03pm.
TRAMS
Seven additional services will operate on Route 57 from Elizabeth St to Stop 30 on Epsom Rd (Melbourne Showgrounds) from 8.30am to 8.30pm. Trams across the network will operate to a Saturday frequency on Cup Day.
UBER
Uber ranks will be located at the main gate, Elms gate and Hill gate.
TICKETS
General admission tickets start at $42 and can be purchased at the gate or ticketek.com.au.
TUESDAY’S FORECAST
Partly cloudy. Medium (60 per cent) chance of showers in the afternoon and evening. Max: 18C. Possible rainfall: 1-2mm.
COMBINING 50 YEARS OF CUP WINNERS TO PICK THE WINNER
JOCKEYS
Glen Boss (Grey Lion) and Damien Oliver (Exospheric) have both won the race three times while Ryan Moore (Bondi Beach) Kerryn McEvoy (Almandin) and Blake Shinn (Gallante) have won it once.
HORSE COLOUR
There is a 50 per cent chance the winner will be a Bay, the colour of 19 runners in this year’s edition.
SILKS
25 winners since Galilee won in 1966 have carried white in their colours, three more than second best in blue and then comes green and red, both 12. 20 of this year’s runners boast either blue or white in their silks, with Godolphin and Lloyd Williams both predominantly blue.
WEIGHT
The winningest weight since 1966 has been 54.5kg (Almoonqith, Gallante, Grand Marshall, Jameka). But anywhere between 53kg-56.5kg is fine given 29 winners have won with weights in that range.
OWNERS
Lloyd Williams has won four previous cups (Just A Dash, What A Nuisance, Efficient and Green Moon) and is represented by Bondi Beach, Gallante, Almandin and Assign in this year’s race. Godolphin, who have never won, have five runners in Hartnell, Beautiful Romance, Oceanographer, Secret Number and Qewy.
BARRIERS
Barrier 11 (Oceanographer) has provided six winners since 1966, ahead of 14 (Sir John Hawkwood) and 5 (Bondi Beach). Barriers 3 (Jameka) 9 (Grand Marshall) 10 (Secret Number) and 21 (Excess Knowledge) have won three times.
AGE
Five and six year olds have the best record, both boasting 16 winners ahead of the 14 belonging to four year olds and four seven year olds. Curren Mirotic (9) Who Shot The Barman (8) Wicklow Brave (8) and Sir John Hawkwood (8) have recent history strongly against them.
TRAINERS
Lee Freedman (Our Ivanhowe and Exospheric) has won the race five times. Robert Hickmott (Gallante, Almandin and Assign) has won it once as has David Hayes (Amoonqith)
SADDLECLOTH NUMBER
Number 6 (Hartnell) has produced six winners, ahead of 2 (Our Ivanhowe) and 8 (Wicklow Brave) with 4 (Bondi Beach) and 5 (Exospheric)
GENDER
Given the southern hemisphere leaning to racing geldings as stayers over stallions, it’s not surprising 27 geldings have won compared with 16 stallions and seven mares
AND THE WINNER IS...
1: Bondi Beach
2: Gallante
3: Oceanographer
4: Exospheric
5: Almandin
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