Last-minute betting guide and tips for Derby Day at Flemington

FINDING a winner on Derby Day seems to get harder every year but there’s plenty of value if you can land one, but we’re here to help with some tips and advice.

FINDING a winner on Derby Day seems to get harder every year but there’s plenty of value if you can land one.

It’s the biggest day on the Melbourne racing calender with four Group 1s — and good luck finding the winner in the Coolmore Stud Stakes and Myer Classic.

DERBY DAY: LIVE COVERAGE

The Victorian Derby is the main event and the Kennedy Mile is the other big race on the card.

And the stayers get one last chance to book their ticket into the Melbourne Cup in the Lexus Stakes.

It could be a tough day at Flemington on Saturday but if you’re looking for a few tips, we have you covered in SuperRacing’s Saddle Up punting guide.

HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

THE EARLY OIL: DERBY DAY

WHO WILL WIN?: VICTORIA DERBY TIPS

FLEMINGTON PROGRAM

Race 1, 11:45pm — Carbine Club Stakes (1600m)

Race 2, 12:20pm — Wakeful Stakes (2000m)

Race 3, 1pm — Skip Sprint (1100m)

Race 4, 1:40pm — Lexus Stakes (2500m)

Race 5, 2:25pm — Coolmore Club Stakes (1200m)

Race 6, 3:05pm — Myer Classic (1600m)

Race 7, 3:50pm — VICTORIA DERBY (2500m)

Race 8, 4:34pm — Kennedy Mile (1600m)

Race 9, 5:20 — TAB Multiplier Stakes (1200m)

OUR SNEAKY CHANCE PODCAST SPECIAL GUEST KATELYN MALLYON TALKS HOSTILITIES TOWARDS JOCKEYS, RIDING FOR LLOYD WILLIAMS AND, OF COURSE, FINDING A WINNER DERBY DAY.

WEATHER

It’s going to be an overcast and chilly day with the possibility of morning showers.

DERBY TIP

ACE HIGH

Like every Victoria Derby, there’s a long tail to the race but there’s still a handful of chances. ACE HIGH is easing favourite and that shows there’s little confidence with this year’s field. The Sydneysider was a strong winner of the Group 1 Spring Champions Stakes at 2000m, but it will be a month between runs which is a slight concern. MAIN STAGE and TANGLED have had the benefit of a run two weeks ago and WEATHER WITH YOU looks a progressive stayer and was a strong winner in the Geelong Classic.

Derby barrier draw

Horse (barrier)	Trainer	Jockey	Weight
1. Ace High (3)	D Payne	T Angland	55.5kg
2. Tangled (11)	C Waller	B Shinn	55.5kg
3. Astoria (1)	J Cummings	D Lane	55.5kg
4. Eshtiraak (5)	D&B Hayes, T Dabernig	K McEvoy	55.5kg
5. Main Stage (14)	T Busuttin & N Young	M Walker	55.5kg
6. Sully (15)	T Busuttin & N Young	H Bowman	55.5kg
7. Weather With You (2)	M Baker & A Forsman	M Zahra	55.5kg
8. Aberro (13)	M Laurie	B Melham	55.5kg
9. Pissaro (10)	R Laing	N Callow	55.5kg
10. Justice Faith (16)	D&B Hayes, T Dabernig	C Williams	55.5kg
11. Ocean's Fourteen (7)	A Purcell	L Nolen	55.5kg
12. Greycliffe (9)	M Cumani	J Childs	55.5kg
13. Johnny Vinko (4)	T Busuttin & N Young	S Baster	55.5kg
14. Nothing Too Hard	P Perry	B Mertens (a)	55.5kg
15. Rockarral (8)	T McEvoy	J Allen	55.5kg
16. Wolfe Tone (17)	F Finnegan	J McNeil	55.5kg
17e. Beachwood (6)	T Busuttin & N Young		55.5kg

BEST BET

LEVENDI (R1, No. 7): Starting early which could make or break the day. The Peter Gelagotis three-year-old looks good now after the scratching of Kaonic and has since been crunched in the betting. Was a sectional star at his past two runs in the Caulfield Guineas, where he was also had bad luck, and Guineas prelude when conditions didn’t suit in both races.

JUMP ON

TOSEN STARDOM (R8, No. 1): The Darren Weir colt won the Toorak Handicap impressively despite covering the most ground. He’s the class in the race but the bookies will take him on because he’s carrying 58kg, which is only ½kg more than he carried in the Toorak. It’s worth noting Happy Trails won the race in 2012 lugging 58kg, and Boban won the following year with 57kg.

Tosen Stardom was a dominant winner of the Toorak Handicap. Picture: Jay Town

JUMP OFF

BRING ME ROSES (R2 No. 1): Won a slow race because she had the best sprint over 1600m. The step up to 2000m could be testing with this being her first race in a month.

VALUE BET

ILLUSTRIOUS LAD (R9, No. 1): Won this race last year and this doesn’t look any harder. The six-year-old gelding made a nice return in the Schillaci Stakes, which suggests he has been set to go back-to-back. Has a good record at Flemington over 1200m.

Trainer Peter Gelagotis and the connections of Illustrious Lad celebrate last year’s win on Derby Day. Picture: Nicole Garmston

BE WARY

ALOFT (R4, No. 4): Had a gut-buster last time in the Herbert Power, and finished 31 lengths behind the winner. He’s the second favourite in the Lexus but he’s a big risk,

TRANSPORT OPTIONS

* Trains: Flemington Racecourse-bound trains depart Flinders Street Station and/or Southern Cross Station, stopping at North Melbourne Station, then express to Flemington.

* Trams: Catch the No. 57 West Maribyrnong tram from the corner of Elizabeth Street and Flinders Street to Flemington Drive (stop 30).

* Buses: Route 472 from Williamstown, Footscray or Moonee Ponds to Fisher Parade; Route 404 from Footscray or Moonee Ponds to Smithfield Road.

Click here for more information

@chrisv195