Early Oil: Chris Vernuccio previews Pakenham Cup Day

The Darren Weir-trained Casino Fourteen should have the measure of his rivals again when he steps out over the mile, according to Superracing form analyst Chris Vernuccio. BEST BETS AND TAB BETTING

Sylpheed ridden by Nozi Tomizawa wins race 7, the AQWA Constructions Just Now Quality during the Christmas Carnival Race Day at the Doomben.

The Darren Weir-trained Casino Fourteen should have the measure of his rivals again when he steps out over the mile for the first occasion, according to Superracing form analyst Chris Vernuccio.

TOP PICKS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

RACE WATCH: DAVO’S BEST BETS

RAY AND DUFF: ROSEHILL AND ASCOT

BEST BET

CASINO FOURTEEN (Race 2, No. 2)

VALUE BET

KIWIA (Race 7, No. 3)

EARLY QUADDIE

1,9,10 / 2,3,4 / 3,6,9,12 / 4,8,9,14,15

$100 flexi for 55.55 per cent

BIG 6

3,6,9 / 8,9,14 / 1,4,9 / 1,3 / 3,4,7,8 / 1,7,10,13

$100 flexi for 11.57 per cent

QUADDIE

Race 6: 1,4,8,9

Race 7: 1,3

Race 8: 3,4,7,8

Race 9: 1,7,10,12,13

$100 flexi for 62.50 per cent

RACE 1 (12.55pm): JOHN DUFF & CO 3YO BM70 HCP (1000m)

Resuming three-year-old gelding ALL IN BRAWL (3) showed great promise in his first two career starts. A lot was against him at The Valley back in August when second to Mig Energy after he had to be restrained from the wide gate and overraced. DIVINE MR TYCOON (9) was three lengths behind him in the same race. Zoustar colt STAR FALL (5) is also first-up and another who displayed talent in his two-year-old campaign. He scored a dominant win at Ballarat before failing to run out 1400m at Flemington. MORE BRICKS (4) was slow out of the barriers at The Valley and lost touch with the field but still managed to finish third after sustaining a long run. SYMPHONETTE (6) has scored two comfortable wins in South Australia. GRANDVIEW AVENUE (1) is backing up after he was taken on up front at Warrnambool last Sunday and left a sitting shot for the swoopers.

BET: ALL IN BRAWL each-way

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

All In Brawl $4-$3.70 ($600 @ $4, $500 @ $3.80 TWICE)

RACE 2 (1.30pm): HANSON BM70 HANDICAP (1600m)

CASINO FOURTEEN (2) won with ease at Donald at his second start back from a long lay-off, putting a gap on field in a matter of strides and finishing off with slick sectionals. He will be positive from the wide barrier. The form of the runner-up behind Casino Fourteen ties in with LAURE ME IN (8), who ran second at Sandown Hillside on Wednesday. PLAY THAT SONG (9) didn’t have galloping room at The Valley and couldn’t build momentum but didn’t finish far behind the winner. GHEEDAA (10) won with ease at Morphettville on Derby Day after sitting behind the leaders, which he’ll likely do again here. HUNAMOSA (1) is a place hope back up to 1600m.

BET: CASINO FOURTEEN win

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

Casino Fourteen $2.70-$3.10-$2.90 ($500 @ $3.10)

Play That Song $14-$7

RACE 3 (2.05pm): FULMEN PARK F & M BM78 HANDICAP (1400m)

Best to ignore MISS WAHOO’s (4) recent attempt at 1400m when she was lame in both forelegs. She responded with a second a Ballarat. The lightly-race mare was a close third at Group 3 level at this distance in February. ANGELIC SPIRIT (3) went at an incredible fast speed in the Group 3 Summoned Stakes at Sandown. Thankfully she has been given a three-week break and has Linda Meech, who won on her at Kyneton two starts ago, back on board. ANOTHER BULLSEYE (2) goes well fresh. He won at this track and distance when first-up in March before his form dropped away deep into the campaign. IT’S A MYTH (11) finished strongly in a mid-week race at Sandown. TEODORA (10) will improve once she gets out to 2000m plus.

BET: MISS WAHOO each-way

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

Another Bullseye $5.50-$6-$5 ($500 @ $6, $300 @ $5.50, $500 @ $5)

Miss Wahoo $5.50-$4.20

RACE 4 (2.40pm): GRAND VUE SPRINGLANDS BM78 HANDICAP (2000m)

A lot of the form between the main hopes are connected. CALIBRATION (3) got the better of ROYAL ORDER (6) at The Valley over 2040m, the latter was placed behind Ringerdingding in October. MR QUICKIE (9) has made a terrific start to his career with four wins from six, including the past three (the two most recent as a gelding). No doubt his best win was when he stepped up to 1800m last start, running quicker time than CREEDENCE (12) on the same day over the same trip. Creedence couldn’t catch Mr Monaco with SAVAHEAT (7) five lengths behind him.

BET: CALIBRATION each-way

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

Mr Quickie $4-$3.80 ($1500 @ $3.90, $500 @ $3.70)

Creedence $8-$6.50

RACE 5 (3.20pm): NASAHI AAC PLATE (1000m)

EURACK (9) can bounce back after the five-year-old mare suffered her first defeat when she pulled up with mucus at Flemington on Stakes Day. UNIQUE LOVELY (14) was sixth at The Valley but beaten less than two lengths by Fill The Flute. She was tracking the winner but a gap didn’t open in the straight and she lost momentum after clocking the fastest 600-400m and third fastest 400-200 splits of the meeting. Wary of SAM’S IMAGE (8) for a new stable. He boasts two wins over boom sprinter Nature Strip but hasn’t been able to repeat those performances elsewhere. MATTY (4) led all the way to win at The Valley, easily beating NODOUBTABOUTIT (11), who can improve after previously running second to Our Luca, who has since won again. PRAIRIE FIRE (15) was fourth in the Blue Diamond before floundering the Golden Slipper after racing too keenly. The three-year-old colt could be too classy but wasn’t convincing in his trial.

BET: EURACK each-way

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

Sams Image $12-$7 ($250 @ $12, $300 e/w @ $7/$2.60, $250 e/w @ $7/$2.60)

Eurack $4-$5

Prairie Fire $12-$6.50

RACE 6 (4pm): SCHWEPPES DAVID BOURKE MEMORIAL HANDICAP (1600m)

TORGORSEN (1) finished second in the Kilmore Cup to the in-form Manuel, who has a win over Fifty Stars this campaign. Surprisingly, he’s a better price than AGE OF FIRE (4), who also performed well in the Kilmore Cup. Not sure what to expect from imported galloper BEAUTY WAY (9), who is having his first start for Grahame Begg. His career began in the UK before moving to Hong Kong and New Zealand. He was placed in his last two starts. FASTNET LATINA (8) was second in the Donald Cup, a length ahead of OUR BOTTINO (6), and has never been out of the placings in five runs at the mile. He, too, has form behind Manuel.

BET: TORGORSEN each-way

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

Age Of Fire $4.60-$3.70

Kilimanjaro $15-$12

Jockey John Allen rides Kiwia to victory in the Ballarat Cup. Picture: AAP

RACE 7 (4.40pm): SPORTSBET PAKENHAM CUP (2500m)

KIWIA (3) and DAL HARRAILD (1) are the standouts and should be closer in the market. Kiwia broke through for his first win in more than a year in the Ballarat Cup but can add another here. He ran the fastest 600-400 and 400-200 splits of the race despite the fence being inferior ground. Ex-English galloper Dal Harraild has improved with each run in his first Australian prep and was beaten narrowly in the Zipping Classic in an on-pace dominated contest with The Taj Mahal. Not much has gone right for LORD FANDANGO (4) this spring. After two good efforts in the Bendigo Cup and Zipping Classic he pulled up lame in the Ballarat Cup. RUNAWAY (5) will find this a lot easier than the Melbourne Cup, where he finished 19th. TALLY (2) beat Kiwia in the Eclipse Stakes at Sandown but had a superior closing sprint off the slow tempo. PILOTE D’ESSAI (7) ran out of his skin in the Ballarat Cup behind Kiwia but did find the best lane where most of the winners were on the day.

BET: KIWIA each-way

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

Kiwia $5-$4.40 ($300 @ $4.80)

Berisha $21-$14

RACE 8 (5.20pm): RACING.COM VOBIS GOLD BULLION (1400m)

Tough choice between the top two selections, considering SO SI BON (7) is one of them. If the reformed gelding is ever going to win another race, this has to be it. He looks very well placed, particularly with 57kg, after his luckless 1 1/2 length sixth in the Group 3 Chatham Stakes over the distance at Flemington. MR MONEY BAGS (3) was thrashed by Mastering when favourite at Kilmore after he was slow to begin, but the result doesn’t look as bad after the runner-up Exceltara triumphed at The Valley last week. He should be ready now third-up at 1400m where he has three wins from seven starts. CHOISBORDER (4) is having his first attempt at 1400m but he was strong to the line over 1300m at Ararat last start after the blinkers were applied for the first time with success. CHIPPENHAM (8) was beaten as favourite by Choisborder the start prior and followed up with another second to Haunted at Ballarat. He’s won just once at the distance but has five minor placings.

BET: SO SI BON each-way

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

Mr Money Bags $6-$6.50 ($500 @ $6, $200 @ $6)

Amadeus $10-$9.50

So Si Bon $4.60-$4.20

Lord Sundowner $9-$7.50

Sylpheed wins at the Doomben last December. Picture: AAP

RACE 9 (5.55pm): SPORTSBET RACING FORM HANDICAP (1200m)

Tricky finish to the day. Ex-Queensland mare SYLPHEED (7) is having her first start for a new stable and will find this much easier than the Group races she contested in the spring and winter. THEANSWERMYFRIEND (1) had rediscovered winning form with three on the trot before pulling up lame at Flemington. He hasn’t raced at 1200m since September last year. PROUD WOLF (13) ran second in this race last year following a similar lead-up effort at Ballarat. Rain would enhance his chances. STELLAR COLLISION (3) was four lengths further back in the same race. LEODORO (12) has an excellent first-up record and has won at the track but will get back. SUSPENSE (10) is first-up and must be respected being from the Snowden stable.

BET: SYLPHEED each-way

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

Sylpheed $9-$6

Leodoro $15-$8.50 ($500 @ $10, $400 @ $9)