Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy: Rosehill, Ascot

The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form guru Ron Dufficy analyse the nine-race Rosehill program and the Group 1 Kingston Town Classic at Ascot.

Popular runner Sir Bacchus wins at Rosehill Gardens during the winter.

The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form guru Ron Dufficy analyse the nine-race Rosehill Gardens program.

Punting’s dynamic duo also runs the rule over the final Group 1 race of the calendar year, the Kingston Town Classic at Ascot.

TOP PICKS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

EARLY OIL: PAKENHAM CUP DAY

RACE WATCH: DAVO’S BEST BETS

DUFF’S SUGGESTED BETS

BEST BET

RACE 2, No. 6: ZALATTE

NEXT BEST

RACE 1, No. 5: CREATOR

RACE 3, No. 2: CHEWBACCA

RAY’S SUGGESTED BETS

BEST BET

BALLER (Race 2, No. 2)

Accelerated impressively to score easily at Randwick’s Kensington meeting last start. His only defeat in three starts came when tested at 1400m but with a more conservative ride, the distance of Saturday’s race won’t pose him any problems. Promising colt and should win again.

BEST VALUE

REFLECTIVITY (Race 8, No. 5)

ROSEHILL GARDENS

RACE 1: ROADWORK SOLUTIONS HCP (1200M)

Ron Dufficy: This high-priced yearling, Creator, has hit the line hard in his two barrier trials suggesting the 1200m will suit him. I thought he would be hard to hold out. Czarson didn’t beat much at Gosford but you have to like the way he ran through the line. Kiamichi got the job done on debut and can improve off, particularly now that Godolphin’s two-year-olds have found winning form. Memphis Rock has race experience on his side and comes out of some strong juvenile races.

Ray Thomas: Czarson showed tactical speed, led throughout and was quite dominant scoring on debut at Gosford. I concede his overall time wasn’t that quick but he controlled the race and as you pointed out Ronnie, the colt was powerful on the line. The 1200m won’t trouble him and he is going to take running down. Creator does look promising, his trials have been good and he’s from the Snowden stable, which is a noted producer of two-year-old. Memphis Rock is improving with racing and will run a strong 1200m. Kiamichi won narrowly but gamely on debut.

Jockey Tommy Berry guides Baller to victory at Royal Randwick last month.

RACE 2: 2019 MEMBERSHIP HCP (1400M)

Dufficy: A very interesting race. Zalatte and Baller both won on the same day and were very impressive. Although Baller ran slightly faster time, I thought Zalatte was a very stylish win. I just feel she may have more upside and her form has been franked during the week. I’ve got Zalatte on top from Baller. Reelem In Ruby unleashed a big finish to win first-up and is an improver. Beidi did nothing first-up but he has caught the eye in a barrier trial since.

Thomas: I’ve gone the other way again, Baller from Zalatte. I agree with everything you say about both horses, Ronnie, but I lean slightly to Baller. He was very good at the Kensington meeting last start, showing good acceleration in the straight. Baller will settle on the speed with the run of the race. Zalatte is bred to get over further but she attacked the line strongly on debut to run down Haut Brion Her who then won at the Warwick Farm midweeks. Ronstar was well beaten last start but fitter for two runs from a spell he can improve. Reelem In Ruby is an emerging filly who won well at Canterbury when resuming.

RACE 3: TAB HIGHWAY HCP (1400M)

Dufficy: Danny Williams has a very strong hand here with three good chances but I feel Chewbacca is the pick of them. Chewbacca has the right grounding after two runs from a spell, he’s held in high regard by the stable and should be in the finish. Bennelong Dancer ran fourth to Victorem in the Country Championships Final back in April and resumed in dashing style. She won’t be an easy beat here. Hemmerle, another Williams runner, has plenty of talent and must be a winning chance. Sostenido can’t be overlooked.

Thomas: Chewbacca does tick a lot of boxes here. He’s a promising sprinter having won three of his six starts. His two runs back have been good, finishing third in a Highway here before winning with authority at Goulburn. He’s at his peak after two runs from a spell and is drawn to get the perfect run from gate three. Bennelong Dancer’s first-up win at Albury was unbelievable. This mare has tremendous finishing speed and will be hard to hold out. Hemmerle is lightly raced but talented and has to be considered although he hasn’t trialled going into his comeback race on Saturday. Vivendi is over the odds.

RACE 4: SUMMER RACING HCP (2000M)

Dufficy: There is a library full of convictions among this lot — and a number of gear changes trying to spring some of these into action. I’d rather go looking for odds rather than take a short price and I’m leaning to Green Sweet. He showed enough improvement at his last two starts to suggest he has a knockout chance. Etymology is racing consistently without winning, Merovee is down in the weights which could help him, and Araaja has been crying out for this distance and the blinkers will help.

Thomas: Merovee gets out to 2000m, which I think he needs, the blinkers come off, his recent runs have been solid and he has only 52.5kg. This is his chance. Etymology is racing consistently but his strike-rate of two wins from 27 starts is the concern. Abdon looks hard to beat off his closing second to the handy Our Century last start. Naval Warfare hasn’t been far away at his last two starts and is one of the main chances.

Sir Bacchus takes out the Octagonal Handicap in June.

RACE 5: ATC TIPPING COMPETITION HCP (1400M)

Dufficy: I like Sir Bacchus. I’m still trying to work out why he is $8.50, he should be shorter than that. Sir Bacchus, although he is hard to catch, did enough first-up and has the same weight here. is the safe way here. He ran in the right lead-up race, the Cradle Mountain race, and will run well. Generalissimo produced a tough run last start and won’t be far off them with a similar type of performance. Smartedge made good ground first-up and is always around the mark. Mapmaker is racing well, he is a genuine horse.

Dufficy: Irithea has drawn the outside barrier but I can envisage her sliding across the field to take up the running or settle outside Man Of Peace. Either way, Irithea will be able to control the race from the front. She is a winner over the Rosehill 1400m course, she comes off a solid third when resuming two weeks ago, her second-up record is good and for a stakes performer, she gets in well at the weights after the claim. Sir Bacchus ran a blinder first-up behind boom sprinter Cradle Mountain. He will take improvement from that run and will be finishing fast. Kilmacurragh has a very good first-up record, he is down in the weights and represents good each way value. Mapmaker is on the back-up after his deserved win last week.

RACE 6: TAB REWARDS HCP (1400M)

Dufficy: I like Hussterical. She is one-from-one over this track and distance, she is crying out for 1400m, she won third-up last preparation and I think she will be in the finish. This looks her race. Deft is better suited at this distance and will get a cosy run from the rails barrier. With Purpose has looked good charging through her classes with three successive wins at Goulburn. She could give the new O’Rourke-Freedman training partnership an early city winner. Nicci’s Gold has been set for this race and has great second-up statistics.

Thomas: Nicci’s Gold produced her best-ever first-up effort when a fast finishing second behind talented mare Seasons. She steps up to 1400m, her preferred distance, and this mare is a second-up specialist with three wins from four attempts. The wide barrier is no issue as she settles back in the field but will be powering home. Deft has impressed in both runs back and this race does set up nicely for her. Hussterical could dictate terms in front and if this develop into a sprint home she will be hard to catch. Velocita is racing well and is in the mix.

RACE 7: MERRY XMAS ATC MEMBERS HCP (1100M)

Dufficy: I found this race impossible so I have to go looking for value. Niccolance has had plenty of injury problems but he is a very talented horse when right. He’s resuming without a trial but Tim Clark rides from a good draw and I am going to put him on top on suspicion alone. Single Bullet has finally won a race and I expect to see him charging home again here. Slow Burn had no luck first-up but Clark leaves him for Niccolance. Ever So Natural has a good fresh record and I liked his trial last Monday.

Thomas: This is a very open sprint. Single Bullet unleashed a brilliant late burst to swamp Revenire over 1000m at Randwick during the spring. He’s been kept fresh since and is well placed here in a race where there is plenty of speed up front. Bon Amis was terrific when resuming but is a little awkwardly drawn. With any luck in running he will go close again. Redouble loomed up to win when resuming but was run down in the final few bounds by Kool Vinnie. Tango Rain showed a return to form last start.

RACE 8: CHRISTMAS AT THE GARDENS HCP (1500M)

Dufficy: Asterius caught most video watchers attention first-up and can only improve off that run. The 1500m suits him perfectly although I still think he might be better third-up. Reflectivity gets a the claim, from the good draw he maps nicely and should be peaking third-up. Turnberry has race well both starts this campaign. So You Win is two from two second-up and I feel he is over the odds.

Thomas: Reflectivity drew wide but worked across to lead and fought on bravely to beat all but Organza over this course and distance. Fitter for two runs from a spell and perfectly drawn. He can either lead or settle just in behind the pace here with the run of the race and with the claim he is well in at the weights. Asterius did catch the eye first-up and will be hard to beat. Turnberry is racing very well as is Destiny’s Own.

RACE 9: AUSTRALIAN TURF CLUB HCP (1300M)

Dufficy: I’m going to give Lisdoonvarna another chance from the better draw. She couldn’t get in from that tricky draw first-up and I think she should position much better here and go close. Arancini attracted solid support first-up and ran well. He should improve. Moet Rose has been racing consistently and has to be respected with her lightweight. Blue Tycoon’s form on dry tracks is very genuine.

Thomas: I agree, this does look a good race for Lisdoonvarna. She was beaten by the barrier when resuming with her fifth behind Kool Vinnie two weeks ago but on Saturday she comes out of gate three and should get the run of the race. Smart mare developing a very good record. Discussions and Moet Rose are both very fit and racing in good form. Dunatun gets back in his races but has a strong finishing burst and is an each way chance.

Jockey William Pike raises his whip as Arcadia Queen takes out the WA Guineas.

ASCOT

RACE 8: KINGSTON TOWN CLASSIC (1800M)

Dufficy: I am a huge fan of Arcadia Queen. I loved the way she powered to the line to win last start. Willie Pike has elected to ride Arcadia Queen and I’m happy to go with the filly. I’ve huge respect for Galaxy Star who won the Railway Stakes so well last start. She is a beauty and all class. Material Man was fantastic in the Railway and at weight-for-age he gets a tick. Perfect Jewel gave an indication last start she is getting back to form.

Thomas: Galaxy Star’s effort to come from near last and power over the top of her rivals to win the Railway Stakes was outstanding. She is a terrific mare with 10 wins (three seconds) from just 13 starts. The step up to 1800m is ideal for her. Arcadia Queen was very impressive winning the WA Guineas and under the weight-for-age conditions of the race, she gets between 6.5kg-9kg weight pull over her rivals. Gatting and Trap For Fools are good chances.

SATURDAY EXTRA

NEWCASTLE WITH SHAYNE O’CASS

BEST BET: WONDERBABE (Race 5, No. 4)

A Brad Widdup-trained daughter of Snitzel and a full to the stakes-placed Miss Wonderland, Tipped out after an encouraging Canterbury debut on August 1. Won her recent trial. Go well.

NEXT BEST: EMSHALKY (Race 8, No. 11)

Won a maiden at Kembla then was unplaced in the next two before spelling — one of those was at WF behind Taaka though. Plenty to like about that Hawkesbury trial 13-days ago.

VALUE BET: THINK IT OVER (Race 3, No. 5)

Bred to win a Derby being by So You Think out of a Zabeel half sister to Universal Prince and from the same of Blevic. Debuts off two very easy trials, never let go in either.

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW: DARRYL McLELLAN

Knows every blade of the Newcastle track and has come up with a great book tomorrow, four of them for Ron Quinton.

BEST EXOTIC: QUADDIE

Race 5: 10,14

Race 6: 3,4,9

Race 7: 4,6,7

Race 8: 2,11,15

GUNNEDAH WITH SHAYNE O’CASS

BEST BET: POLICY (Race 1, No. 6)

Policy is a well bred Exceed And Excel colt out of a half sister to rain Affair on debut. put simply, if he runs up to either trial, he’ll win even with the outside draw.

NEXT BEST: BRIXTON TOWN (Race 2, No. 1)

Brixton Town brings together the Allan Denham/Greg Ryan combination. Should be able to breakthrough here after those two Scone placings.

ALBURY WITH SHAYNE O’CASS

BEST BET: GOING IN STYLE (Race 2, No. 2)

Going In Style is a locally trained gelding who has placed at three of his eight starts to date and is rarely far away at other times. This is his big chance.