Race watch: Brad Davidson’s extended preview and tips for Rosehill Gardens
Sky Racing form analyst Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, with TAB market movers and suggested bets at Rosehill Gardens.
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Sky Racing form analyst Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, with TAB market movers and suggested bets at Rosehill Gardens.
ROSEHILL GARDENS
Rail: Out 6m entire track.
Weather: Overcast
Track: Good (4)
TOP PICKS: WEEKEND BEST BETS
EARLY OIL: PAKENHAM CUP DAY
ANALYSIS: KINGSTON TOWN CLASSIC
BEST BETS
Race 1, No. 5
CREATOR $4 (should firm)
Race 8, No. 5
REFLECTIVITY $4 (should drift)
BEST VALUE
Race 3, No. 3
VEGA DE LAGO $19 each-way (should drift)
Race 9, No. 3
LORD VON COSTA $23 each-way
LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS
RACE 1: 1.15PM ROADWORK SOLUTIONS HANDICAP (1200M)
Overview: He doesn’t looked blessed with early speed but it has been hard not to be taken by the way Creator has found the line in two recent trials. He was a $1.5 million yearling and he should be hard to hold out here late the way he has been trialling. Czarson should lead and take some catching, although his overall time was just fair on debut at Gosford (. 6s slower than the Class 2 1000m race on the same day). Memphis Rock was stakes placed last start and has to be considered here.
BETTING STRATEGY: CREATOR TO WIN
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Creator $6-$4 ($400 @ $6, $350 @ $5.50, $250 @ $4)
RACE 2: 1.50PM 2019 MEMBERSHIP HANDICAP (1400M)
Overview: Zalatte was a big firmer as soon as markets opened and that’s not a surprise. She was a strong winner first-up and whileit was only a maiden she did run pretty much identical time to Baller (who she meets here) over the same distance on the same day. Baller’s race was run at a slower early tempo but Zalatte has the upside factor. The 1400m should suit and the only concern is whether she wants even further now. Baller has won two from three, should lead and be hard to catch.
BETTING STRATEGY: ZALATTE TO WIN. QUINELLA 6, 2
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Baller $2.60-$2.70
Zalate $5-$3.40 ($1,070 @ $5, $250 e/w @ $5/$2.40, $700 @ $4, $300 @ $4)
RACE 3: 2.25PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1400M)
Overview: The one that interests me at odds is Vega De Lago. I’ve been taken by the way she has found the line with big weights ather two runs back over unsuitable trips and she finally gets to her right trip now, dropping to 55kg for an in-form apprentice. Hopefully she can hold a spot midfield and be strong late. Hemmerle came a long way in his first prep and looks a terrific chance if ready fresh, while Bennelong Dancer was a big winner first-up.
BETTING STRATEGY: VEGA DE LAGO EACH-WAY AND BOXED TRIFECTA 1, 2, 3, 4
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Chewbacca $3.80-$2.70 ($350 @ $3.80, $2,500 @ $3.20, $500 @ $2.90, $250 @ $2.70, $200 @ $2.70)
Hemmerle $3.80-$4.60
RACE 4: 3PM SUMMER RACING HANDICAP (2000M)
Overview: They tend to share these races and maybe it’s Etymology’s turn. He hasn’t won for a little while now but most of these are in the same boat and he should have won at Flemington two back. His run was good last start behind the in-form Sky Boy. Araaja presents OK third-up but she was entitled to run on second-up the way the race was run. Abdon just missed last start but hasn’t won in 854 days and he tends to find one better.
BETTING STRATEGY: ETYMOLOGY TO WIN
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Araaja $7.50-$5
Merovee $6-$5.50
RACE 5: 3.40PM ATC TIPPING COMPETITION HANDICAP (1400M)
Overview: Mapmaker was a deserved winner at this track last start and I like the fact he is on the quick back-up here. He must have come through that run well and should get every chance again. Sir Bacchus will give them a start but he was really good fresh in a strong-rating race. He looks to have come back a better horse this campaign by the look of his trial before his fresh run too and he won’t be too far off them in the small field.
BETTING STRATEGY: SIR BACCHUS THE VALUE. SAVE ON MAPMAKER
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Kilmacurragh $15-$12 ($200 @ $15, $250 @ $14, $250 @ $13, $300 @ $12)
RACE 6: 4.20PM TAB REWARDS HANDICAP (1400M)
Overview: I think we have to look for value here and Velocita pushed Sexy Eyes (wide and forgive since) last start and she did beat Savacool at her only run at this track and distance. Sweet Deal had every conceivable chance second-up but still beat theboys and only has to take on her own sex here (she does have to lump the 60kg, though). Nicci’s Gold has won second-up the past three preps and did have Deft’s measure last start. She just gives them a big start from the draw here. I’m including Sweet Victory in the quaddie at big odds and she had no luck first-up last prep.
BETTING STRATEGY: LEANING TO VELOCITA BUT VERY OPEN. INCLUDE SWEET VICTORY IN QUADDIES
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Niccis Gold $11-$8.50
Deft $4.60-$4.20
RACE 7: 5PM MERRY CHRISTMAS ATC MEMBERS SPRINT (1100M)
Overview: I want to be in the camp of Albumin and he just sets up well here from the inside draw on dry ground. His trial without blinkers was good (they go on race day) and his fresh win last time in was run in slick figures. The 59kg is the leveller but with even luck he should run well. Having said that, there are plenty of chances here. Bon Amis was outstanding first-up (quickest last 600m of the day), Jorda can flash late here with Kerrin McEvoy on, Slow Burn had no luck at all fresh but takes on the boys now and Viceroy and Ever So Natural have terrific first-up records and could be rough place chances here at goododds.
BETTING STRATEGY: ALBUMIN ON TOP BUT PLACE CHANCES TO VICEROY AND EVER SO NATURAL AT BIG ODDS
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Bon Amis $4.80-$5 ($250 @ $5, $200 @ $5, $250 x $100 e/w @ $5/$2.10)
Slow Burn $12-$9
RACE 8: 5.40PM CHRISTMAS AT THE GARDENS HANDICAP (1500M)
Overview: Looks a nice race for Reflectivity and he should be peaking third-up now. He should find the front and if he gets a couple of cheap sectionals he will be hard to run down. Asterius was outstanding fresh and expect him to be flashing home. He won second-up at this track and distance last prep but they went hard that day and he got to the right part of the track.
BETTING STRATEGY: REFLECTIVITY TO WIN
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Asterius $8-$7 ($300 e/w @ $8/$2.70, $200 @ $7 TWICE)
Deductions
Weekend Affair 2c Win 2c Place
RACE 9: 6.15PM AUSTRALIAN TURF CLUB HANDICAP (1300M)
Overview: I’m happy to make a case for Lord Von Costa and his two runs this time in have both been really good. He gets the blinkers on again and the last two times they went on he won a Wagga maiden by three lengths and ran second to Santa Ana Lane in a Wagga Town Plate. He will get back and probably prefers 1200m but at the price he is worth a speck. Lisdoonvarna covered ground and got too far back first-up. She will get a much better run here. Moet Rose has had her chance at her past couple but the blinkers go on and she should run well again from the good draw. Arancini did win second-up last preparation.
BETTING STRATEGY: LORD VON COSTA EACH-WAY
TAB MARKET MOVERS:
Lisdoonvarna $6-$5
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